Chart 2. Predicted economywide and actual manufacturing quit rates, 1959–81 (in percent)
Date Predicted economywide Manufacturing

Jan 1959

 2.06 1.4

Feb 1959

 1.98 1.3

Mar 1959

 2.14 1.5

Apr 1959

 2.14 1.5

May 1959

 2.22 1.6

Jun 1959

 2.14 1.5

Jul 1959

 2.14 1.5

Aug 1959

 2.14 1.5

Sep 1959

 2.14 1.5

Oct 1959

 2.14 1.5

Nov 1959

 2.14 1.5

Dec 1959

 2.22 1.6

Jan 1960

 2.14 1.5

Feb 1960

 2.22 1.6

Mar 1960

 2.14 1.5

Apr 1960

 2.14 1.5

May 1960

 1.98 1.3

Jun 1960

 2.06 1.4

Jul 1960

 2.06 1.4

Aug 1960

 1.98 1.3

Sep 1960

 1.98 1.3

Oct 1960

 1.90 1.2

Nov 1960

 1.82 1.1

Dec 1960

 1.82 1.1

Jan 1961

 1.82 1.1

Feb 1961

 1.82 1.1

Mar 1961

 1.82 1.1

Apr 1961

 1.82 1.1

May 1961

 1.82 1.1

Jun 1961

 1.90 1.2

Jul 1961

 1.90 1.2

Aug 1961

 1.90 1.2

Sep 1961

 1.98 1.3

Oct 1961

 1.98 1.3

Nov 1961

 2.06 1.4

Dec 1961

 2.06 1.4

Jan 1962

 1.98 1.3

Feb 1962

 2.06 1.4

Mar 1962

 2.06 1.4

Apr 1962

 2.06 1.4

May 1962

 2.14 1.5

Jun 1962

 2.14 1.5

Jul 1962

 2.06 1.4

Aug 1962

 2.14 1.5

Sep 1962

 2.06 1.4

Oct 1962

 2.06 1.4

Nov 1962

 2.06 1.4

Dec 1962

 1.98 1.3

Jan 1963

 1.98 1.3

Feb 1963

 1.98 1.3

Mar 1963

 2.06 1.4

Apr 1963

 2.06 1.4

May 1963

 2.06 1.4

Jun 1963

 2.06 1.4

Jul 1963

 2.06 1.4

Aug 1963

 2.14 1.5

Sep 1963

 2.06 1.4

Oct 1963

 2.06 1.4

Nov 1963

 2.06 1.4

Dec 1963

 1.98 1.3

Jan 1964

 2.06 1.4

Feb 1964

 2.06 1.4

Mar 1964

 2.06 1.4

Apr 1964

 2.06 1.4

May 1964

 2.14 1.5

Jun 1964

 2.06 1.4

Jul 1964

 2.14 1.5

Aug 1964

 2.14 1.5

Sep 1964

 2.14 1.5

Oct 1964

 2.22 1.6

Nov 1964

 2.14 1.5

Dec 1964

 2.22 1.6

Jan 1965

 2.30 1.7

Feb 1965

 2.30 1.7

Mar 1965

 2.30 1.7

Apr 1965

 2.38 1.8

May 1965

 2.30 1.7

Jun 1965

 2.38 1.8

Jul 1965

 2.38 1.8

Aug 1965

 2.38 1.8

Sep 1965

 2.54 2.0

Oct 1965

 2.54 2.0

Nov 1965

 2.62 2.1

Dec 1965

 2.70 2.2

Jan 1966

 2.70 2.2

Feb 1966

 2.78 2.3

Mar 1966

 3.02 2.6

Apr 1966

 3.02 2.6

May 1966

 3.02 2.6

Jun 1966

 3.02 2.6

Jul 1966

 3.02 2.6

Aug 1966

 2.94 2.5

Sep 1966

 3.02 2.6

Oct 1966

 3.02 2.6

Nov 1966

 3.02 2.6

Dec 1966

 3.10 2.7

Jan 1967

 2.94 2.5

Feb 1967

 2.86 2.4

Mar 1967

 2.86 2.4

Apr 1967

 2.78 2.3

May 1967

 2.78 2.3

Jun 1967

 2.86 2.4

Jul 1967

 2.70 2.2

Aug 1967

 2.78 2.3

Sep 1967

 2.78 2.3

Oct 1967

 2.78 2.3

Nov 1967

 2.86 2.4

Dec 1967

 2.86 2.4

Jan 1968

 2.86 2.4

Feb 1968

 2.86 2.4

Mar 1968

 2.86 2.4

Apr 1968

 2.78 2.3

May 1968

 2.94 2.5

Jun 1968

 2.86 2.4

Jul 1968

 2.94 2.5

Aug 1968

 3.10 2.7

Sep 1968

 2.94 2.5

Oct 1968

 3.02 2.6

Nov 1968

 3.02 2.6

Dec 1968

 2.94 2.5

Jan 1969

 3.10 2.7

Feb 1969

 3.10 2.7

Mar 1969

 3.10 2.7

Apr 1969

 3.10 2.7

May 1969

 3.18 2.8

Jun 1969

 3.18 2.8

Jul 1969

 3.10 2.7

Aug 1969

 3.18 2.8

Sep 1969

 3.02 2.6

Oct 1969

 3.10 2.7

Nov 1969

 3.02 2.6

Dec 1969

 2.94 2.5

Jan 1970

 2.94 2.5

Feb 1970

 2.86 2.4

Mar 1970

 2.70 2.2

Apr 1970

 2.70 2.2

May 1970

 2.62 2.1

Jun 1970

 2.70 2.2

Jul 1970

 2.70 2.2

Aug 1970

 2.62 2.1

Sep 1970

 2.54 2.0

Oct 1970

 2.46 1.9

Nov 1970

 2.30 1.7

Dec 1970

 2.46 1.9

Jan 1971

 2.38 1.8

Feb 1971

 2.30 1.7

Mar 1971

 2.30 1.7

Apr 1971

 2.30 1.7

May 1971

 2.38 1.8

Jun 1971

 2.38 1.8

Jul 1971

 2.38 1.8

Aug 1971

 2.38 1.8

Sep 1971

 2.38 1.8

Oct 1971

 2.38 1.8

Nov 1971

 2.46 1.9

Dec 1971

 2.46 1.9

Jan 1972

 2.62 2.1

Feb 1972

 2.62 2.1

Mar 1972

 2.70 2.2

Apr 1972

 2.70 2.2

May 1972

 2.70 2.2

Jun 1972

 2.70 2.2

Jul 1972

 2.70 2.2

Aug 1972

 2.70 2.2

Sep 1972

 2.78 2.3

Oct 1972

 2.78 2.3

Nov 1972

 2.94 2.5

Dec 1972

 3.02 2.6

Jan 1973

 3.18 2.8

Feb 1973

 3.27 2.9

Mar 1973

 3.27 2.9

Apr 1973

 3.18 2.8

May 1973

 3.18 2.8

Jun 1973

 3.18 2.8

Jul 1973

 3.10 2.7

Aug 1973

 3.10 2.7

Sep 1973

 3.10 2.7

Oct 1973

 3.27 2.9

Nov 1973

 3.27 2.9

Dec 1973

 3.10 2.7

Jan 1974

 3.10 2.7

Feb 1974

 3.18 2.8

Mar 1974

 3.10 2.7

Apr 1974

 3.02 2.6

May 1974

 3.02 2.6

Jun 1974

 2.94 2.5

Jul 1974

 2.94 2.5

Aug 1974

 2.86 2.4

Sep 1974

 2.70 2.2

Oct 1974

 2.54 2.0

Nov 1974

 2.38 1.8

Dec 1974

 2.30 1.7

Jan 1975

 2.06 1.4

Feb 1975

 1.98 1.3

Mar 1975

 1.90 1.2

Apr 1975

 1.90 1.2

May 1975

 1.98 1.3

Jun 1975

 2.06 1.4

Jul 1975

 2.06 1.4

Aug 1975

 2.14 1.5

Sep 1975

 2.06 1.4

Oct 1975

 2.14 1.5

Nov 1975

 2.22 1.6

Dec 1975

 2.14 1.5

Jan 1976

 2.22 1.6

Feb 1976

 2.22 1.6

Mar 1976

 2.38 1.8

Apr 1976

 2.38 1.8

May 1976

 2.30 1.7

Jun 1976

 2.30 1.7

Jul 1976

 2.38 1.8

Aug 1976

 2.30 1.7

Sep 1976

 2.30 1.7

Oct 1976

 2.22 1.6

Nov 1976

 2.14 1.5

Dec 1976

 2.22 1.6

Jan 1977

 2.38 1.8

Feb 1977

 2.38 1.8

Mar 1977

 2.38 1.8

Apr 1977

 2.38 1.8

May 1977

 2.46 1.9

Jun 1977

 2.38 1.8

Jul 1977

 2.38 1.8

Aug 1977

 2.46 1.9

Sep 1977

 2.46 1.9

Oct 1977

 2.46 1.9

Nov 1977

 2.46 1.9

Dec 1977

 2.54 2.0

Jan 1978

 2.46 1.9

Feb 1978

 2.46 1.9

Mar 1978

 2.54 2.0

Apr 1978

 2.62 2.1

May 1978

 2.54 2.0

Jun 1978

 2.62 2.1

Jul 1978

 2.62 2.1

Aug 1978

 2.62 2.1

Sep 1978

 2.70 2.2

Oct 1978

 2.70 2.2

Nov 1978

 2.62 2.1

Dec 1978

 2.70 2.2

Jan 1979

 2.70 2.2

Feb 1979

 2.62 2.1

Mar 1979

 2.62 2.1

Apr 1979

 2.62 2.1

May 1979

 2.54 2.0

Jun 1979

 2.54 2.0

Jul 1979

 2.54 2.0

Aug 1979

 2.54 2.0

Sep 1979

 2.46 1.9

Oct 1979

 2.54 2.0

Nov 1979

 2.54 2.0

Dec 1979

 2.38 1.8

Jan 1980

 2.46 1.9

Feb 1980

 2.46 1.9

Mar 1980

 2.38 1.8

Apr 1980

 2.22 1.6

May 1980

 2.14 1.5

Jun 1980

 2.06 1.4

Jul 1980

 2.06 1.4

Aug 1980

 2.06 1.4

Sep 1980

 1.98 1.3

Oct 1980

 1.98 1.3

Nov 1980

 2.06 1.4

Dec 1980

 2.14 1.5

Jan 1981

 2.06 1.4

Feb 1981

 2.06 1.4

Mar 1981

 1.98 1.3

Apr 1981

 1.98 1.3

May 1981

 1.98 1.3

Jun 1981

 2.06 1.4

Jul 1981

 2.14 1.5

Aug 1981

 1.98 1.3

Sep 1981

 1.98 1.3

Oct 1981

 1.90 1.2

Nov 1981

 1.82 1.1

Dec 1981

 1.82 1.1

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and author's calculations.