FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.D.T. FRIDAY, AUGUST 7, 1998 Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press under lock-up conditions with the explicit understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time. Statement of Katharine G. Abraham Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics before the Joint Economic Committee UNITED STATES CONGRESS Friday, August 7, 1998 Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee: I would like to thank you for this opportunity to comment on the employment and unemployment data that were released this morning. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5 percent in July. Total nonfarm job growth was just 66,000, following a gain of 196,000 in the prior month. Strikes at two plants led to shutdowns and layoffs affecting workers in several auto-related industries. Manufacturing employment, which declined by 176,000 over the month, was heavily affected by the strikes and resulting plant shutdowns. Auto manufacturing, with a drop of 111,000 jobs, was hardest hit. There also were noteworthy losses in fabricated metals due to the idling of automobile stamping plants. Primary metals, industrial machinery, rubber and plastics, and apparel (which includes auto trimmings) all posted declines as production lines in plants that supply the auto industry were shut down. Not all the over-the-month movements in manufacturing employment were auto-related. The electronic components and food products industries lost jobs, while the aircraft industry and printing and publishing added workers. Employment in textile mills continued its slow, long-term decline. The factory work week dipped by 0.1 hour to 41.7 hours. Construction added 18,000 jobs, with gains spread through the component industries. Since construction employment bottomed out in July of 1992, it has grown at an average annual rate of about 5 percent, twice the pace of overall employment growth. In the service-producing sector, employment in retail trade jumped by 125,000. Eating and drinking places, with a gain of 69,000 jobs, accounted for more than half of the increase. Even so, growth in the retail sector was widespread. Employment in food stores grew strongly and miscellaneous retail establishments had its second large gain in three months. Building materials and garden supply stores continued to add workers, as did furniture stores. After two months of large job gains, services grew by only 65,000 jobs in July. The sluggish growth was due largely to a decline of 33,000 jobs in help supply, some share of which was a secondary effect of the auto industry strike. Health services employment did not grow, as home health care and nursing homes both reduced employment. In contrast, engineering and management services and computer services both continued strong long-term growth trends. Amusement and recreation services and hotels also added jobs. Finance, insurance, and real estate added 32,000 jobs in July. Employment growth in finance--18,000 in July--has been slowly accelerating for nearly 3 years. The insurance industry added 8,000 jobs over the month, about in line with its second quarter pace. Real estate employment also grew, following two sluggish months. Employment in government edged down for the second straight month, after a large increase in May. The decline was due mostly to losses in local government, except education. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers rose by 3 cents for the third straight month. This is somewhat slower than the average monthly increase of 5 cents through the first four months of the year. Turning to data from the household survey, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.5 percent in July. Among the major demographic groups, the jobless rate for adult black men rose to 8.9 percent. An increase in black teenage unemployment largely reversed a drop in the previous month. Reflecting strike-related plant shutdowns, the unemployment rate for durable goods manufacturing climbed from 2.9 percent to 4.3 percent and the number of unemployed job losers on temporary layoff grew. To summarize, job growth in July fell below its recent pace, due mostly to secondary effects of strike activity. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5 percent. My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your questions. 3 4