FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.D.T. FRIDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2000 Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press under lock-up conditions with the explicit understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time. Statement of Katharine G. Abraham Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday, October 6, 2000 Good morning. I am pleased to offer a few comments to supplement our release of the September employment and unemployment statistics earlier this morning. Payroll employment overall rose moderately in September, even though manufacturing had its second large job loss in a row. The unemployment rate declined to the lower edge of its narrow year-long range of 3.9 to 4.1 percent. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 252,000 in September. This change was boosted by the return of striking communications workers to their jobs, although that return was partly offset by new strikes in manufacturing and local government education. The net effect across the industries was to add 75,000 workers to the over-the-month employment increase. At the same time, 27,000 temporary workers completed their work on Census 2000 and were released during the month. After adjusting for these special circumstances, employment grew by 204,000 in September. This monthly change is midway between similarly adjusted increases of 160,000 in August and 241,000 in July. Services accounted for most of September’s employment gain, increasing by nearly twice the average growth for the previous 12 months. Within business services, help supply employment growth had lagged over the summer. In September, when the industry's job count normally declines, help supply services actually added workers. The result was a large seasonally adjusted employment increase. In social services, which includes job training services, changes in public funding for job training programs contributed to weak summer hiring and thus fewer-than-expected layoffs in September, also resulting in a seasonally adjusted employment increase. While there has been considerable variation in the monthly job gains in services overall, the average monthly growth thus far this year has been about in line with that seen in 1999. Among the industries that had job growth in September and have shown sustained job growth over the past 9 months are engineering and management services, health services, and computer services. Other industries had losses in September, but have otherwise been quite strong this year, including child day care and amusements and recreation services. Construction added 30,000 jobs in September and has added 266,000 jobs over the year. September is normally a layoff month in construction. This year, however, summer hiring was relatively light, so that September's layoffs may have been smaller than usual simply because fewer workers had been hired to begin with. On the other hand, declining mortgage rates in recent months may have led to some pickup in activity within construction, and perhaps real estate as well. Mortgage banking, which also is sensitive to interest rate changes, experienced an employment increase for the first time since May 1999. After holding about even for the first 7 months of the year, manufacturing employment fell sharply for the second month in a row. (The revised decline for August now stands at 117,000.) The September declines were widespread among durable and nondurable manufacturing industries; the only industry to continue on a growth trend was electronic components. The factory workweek has fallen by one-half hour in the last 2 months, reaching levels that have not been sustained over any extended period since early 1993. Factory overtime hours also have slipped in recent months. Average hourly earnings, at $13.83 in September, rose 3 cents over the month and 48 cents (3.6 percent) over the year. The over-the-year increase in hourly earnings has been between 3.5 and 3.8 percent since February 1999. Looking at some of the measures obtained from our survey of households, the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in September from 4.1 percent in August. Since October 1999, this rate has remained within one-tenth of a percentage point of 4.0 percent. Much of the reduction in unemployment in September was among adult women. The unemployment rate for blacks fell to the lowest level on record (7.0 percent). Another indication of the continued strength of the job market is the relatively small number of part-time workers who would prefer full-time work, which has held at around 3.2 million for about a year. That number had been nearly 5 million in early 1994. In summary, payrolls grew moderately in September. The unemployment rate declined to 3.9 percent, the lower edge of the narrow range it has occupied since last October. My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your questions.