Changing the item structure of the Consumer Price IndexThe changes in the 1998 CPI market basket will reflect and anticipate shifts in the consumer marketplace; what factors are involved?
Uses of the item structure The CPI item structure is the classification system used to partition the set of all consumer goods and services into a hierarchy of increasingly detailed categories. The levels of the CPI classification are:
Index estimation. The item stratum-index area combination is the basic building block of the CPI. For example, breakfast cereal is an item stratum and the Philadelphia-Wilmington metropolitan area is an index area; breakfast cereal in Philadelphia-Wilmington is an item stratum-index area combination. CPI samples are drawn for each of these building blocks, which BLS calls basic indexes (or elementary aggregates). The item strata level is the lowest level in the item structure for which a comprehensive set of indexes are computed. Expenditure weights for the basic indexes reflect the consumption pattern of the CPI expenditure base period (currently, 198284; 199395, as of January 1998) and remain constant between CPI revisions. With these expenditure-period weights, the CPI aggregates the basic indexes to create indexes for the higher levels. Imputation. Expenditure classes are the first level of index aggregation. For example, mens footwear, boys and girls footwear, and womens footwear are item strata within the expenditure class for footwear. An expenditure class serves two functions. It is a natural grouping of products from the users point of view (footwear, in this case) and it is used during index estimation to impute price change when actual price change data are not available. The expenditure classes are used to impute the index values for unsampled (unpriced) item strata, and for priced strata in some cases of temporary nonresponse. Because the expenditure classes are used for index imputation, the strata within an expenditure class are generally a group of products which are expected to have similar price movements. Publication. BLS publishes national CPI indexes for all levels of the item structure down to and including the item strata, that is, all items, major groups, intermediate aggregates, expenditure classes, and item strata. For the geographic regions and CPI local areas, BLS publishes a reduced set of CPI indexes that include all items, all major groups and selected intermediate groups, and expenditure classes. Analysis. The CPI press release announcing each months CPI includes the major groups to explain the sources of price change that month. In their analysis, economists and the media use major groups and intermediate aggregates to dissect and explain the price change story. Special indexessuch as energy and all items less food and energycut across the structure to provide a different view of price change and price change trends. For example, many analysts believe that the all items less food and energy index, which is often called the underlying or core rate of inflation, is especially useful in forecasting longer term price movements because it excludes the portion of the consumer market that is most subject to sudden, dramatic, and often temporary, price changes due to demand and supply shocks such as bad weather or political crises. Sampling. BLS statisticians determine how many price quotations and observations should be collected for each basic index at the expenditure class level within groups of index areas. This process is called sample allocation.2 The primary objective of sample allocation is to produce the most accurate national all items index as possible with the funds available. In each index area, each item stratum is allocated a minimum number of observations. If its expenditure class represents a large weight, or if the stratum is subject to high variability, or if it is relatively inexpensive to collect, then BLS statisticians allocate additional sample to the stratum. BLS statisticians select entry level items within item strata and match them with the sampled retail outlets for price collection. The BLS field staff who collect CPI prices, use the entry level items as the starting point for the selection of the unique product or servicewithin the outletwhose prices they will follow. Changing the structure The CPI item classification scheme is a structured approach to the consumer marketplace, with consumer goods defined and classified according to the consumers view of the market. To make improvements to the CPI item structure, we have to change the way the CPI market basket defines and groups items. To accomplish this, we changed the CPIs classification of its market basket to correspond to recent changes in the marketplace. This task includes providing a place in the market basket for new consumer products, increasing the prominence of those whose importance has grown, and diminishing the prominence of (or phasing out altogether) those things that have become obsolete or whose importance has diminished. Additional tasks include designing ways to define or view the items themselves. New goods. A new consumer good or service has no clear predecessor in the marketplace and, therefore, has no obvious place in the CPI classification. In some cases, this inhibits the introduction of the new good into the CPI sample at times of sample rotation or item substitution. For example, the information processing equipment strata in the current CPI item structure provides for the inclusion of computer software as well as personal computers in the index, but there are just a few software products that are actually included in the price sample. When such an item enters the consumer marketplace and becomes an important component of consumer spending, the CPI must incorporate it into the item classification scheme so that the CPI will continue to be an index of all consumer goods and services. The new item structure recognizes the growing importance of these products by including an item stratum for computer software and accessories. The new classification scheme also provides new item strata or entry level items for cellular telephones, leased cars and trucks, and delivery services. Blends. Unlike a new item, which has no clear predecessor, a "blend" has multiple predecessors. When a blend straddles two strata, it can cause difficulties for the CPI. The arrival of blends is often a sign that it is time for the CPI to combine item strata. A simple example is the butter-margarine combination products; these forced the CPI to combine the strata and put the new stratum into fats and oils. A related problem occurs when two different strata contain items that are close substitutes. The biggest example of this is the strata for motor vehicles. The old structure has separate strata for automobiles and for trucks, making a distinction between passenger vehicles and cargo-carrying vehicles. In recent years, consumers have shifted their spending from automobiles to trucksin particular, from station wagons to mini-vans and sport utility vehicles. These new kinds of vehicles may be thought of as blends of automobiles and trucks as the line between automobiles and trucks has become blurred to the point of virtual meaninglessness to consumers. Consequently, the new structure has just one stratum for new vehicles. Increasingly important items. The new structure adds new entry level items or item strata to give greater prominence to nonalcoholic beverages, baby food, salad dressing, gardening and lawncare services, motor vehicle property taxes, parking and tolls, nursing homes and adult day care services, and many other elements of consumer spending. The revised structure also will create a new major group: Education and Communication (discussed later in the article). As a result, all of these items will get a greater share of the CPI pricing samples and, in some cases, will permit us to begin publishing indexes for them. Obsolete and less important items. When consumer items diminish in importance, the item structure needs to give them less prominence so that they will not absorb an excessive share of the programs resources. Often, the easiest way to accomplish this is to combine strata or entry level items. For example, the five entry level items for various kinds of dishes and drinking glasses will collapse into a single entry level item called dishes. In addition, the new structure will no longer have separate strata or entry level items for white bread, some cuts of meat, or types of automobile repair. Portable dishwashers will no longer be an entry level item. All of these items are still represented in the CPI, but they will receive less sample and, in some cases, we will discontinue publishing index series for them. New views of consumer items. In some cases,
consumers and sellers significantly change in the way they
perceive consumer items, such that the CPI must replace the
methods used to define and price these items. The best example of
this is medical care. The current CPI has distinct item strata
for various medical inputs, such as the cost of a day in a
hospital room. This structure makes it difficult for the CPI to
accommodate the many changes in the medical care industry (such
as the shift to performing outpatient procedures). The new item
structure combines the three hospital item strata (hospital
room, in patient; other inpatient services; and
hospital outpatient services) into a single item
stratum, hospital services. This will permit the CPI
to take a "treatment approach" to hospital services,
and will position the CPI to eventually take an "outcomes
approach" to pricing medical care.3
Out of scope items. While there has always been some debate concerning whether or not a few spending elements actually belong in the CPI market basket, a detailed account of these controversies is beyond the purpose of this article. However, it is noteworthy to acknowledge a few items. One of these elements is finance charges: the current CPI has an item stratum for automobile finance charges, but we now consider them out of scope because it is not possible to account for intertemporal purchases in an index that measures price change between periods. Therefore, interest charges are not included in the new structure. Another out-of-scope item is residential insurance. The adoption of the rental equivalence approach to measuring the change in the cost of owner-occupied shelter made insurance solely based for residential structures, along with most spending on home maintenance and repairs, out of scope. Also, household insurance, which excludes insurance on residential structures, because that is subsumed under owners equivalent rent, will now be combined with tenants insurance, which is the only part of this stratum that is and will be sampled. The maintenance and repair items are scaled back to such a degree that they now are just part of tools, hardware, and supplies or household operations. The steps toward change As mentioned earlier, the item strata are the basic building blocks of the CPI. To revise the strata, our first task is to define each one. The item strata definitions are used to partition the complete set of consumer goods and services in the CPI market basket. After partitioning the goods and services, we determine if the products and services within the stratum will be sampled (priced) or unsampled (unpriced). Unsampled strata typically have a tiny share of the expenditure in the market basket and are generally difficult to define in terms of product specifications and price characteristics so that there is no reliable technique to track their price changes. These item strata have an explicit expenditure weight assigned to them, but the products and services represented by these expenditures are not included in the CPI price collection program; thus, they are "unpriced." One reason for leaving a stratum unpriced is the difficulty of finding stable outlets for it; this is true of services such as babysitting and carpools. Another reason is that the items in the stratum are so complex and changeable that we cannot accurately separate their pure price changes from changes associated with new features; examples include yachts and recreational vehicles. Define item strata. The task of defining each stratum is important to the CPI. These strata will have weights that are constant until the next CPI revision. As we defined each stratum, other considerations had to be made. The following summarizes these points. Determine the number of strata. The number of priced strata increased from 183 to 186, remaining basically unchanged from the old to the new classification. However, within this process, we created some new strata for new products and collapsed some existing ones. The number of "old line" strata diminished (for example, six beef strata became four because consumers changed their preferences for beef) and the number in strata of growing importance rose. (For example, nonalcoholic beverages went from three to five strata.) Decide the optimal number of item strata. The CPI weights are fixed at the item strata index area level. In contrast, weights within the strata change as samples rotate, as sample items are replaced by substitute items, and as sample outlets that disappear are replaced by augmentation outlets. On the one hand, if there are very few strata, the CPIs conceptual framework of holding the expenditure weights for the reference period market basket constant will be weak. On the other hand, if there are many strata, the structure will be too rigid to accommodate changes in the market place and the samples will be too small to yield accurate measures of price change. Beginning in 1998, the item stratas fixed expenditure weights will come from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys for 1993, 1994, and 1995. Defining a large number of strata will strain the ability of these surveys to yield accurate weights. Most strata must be sampledselecting retail outlets for them and then selecting unique items within those outlets to represent them. In addition, the strata must be priced, tracking the prices of the selected items over time. Consequently, it is important not to define an excessive number of priced strata. Too many strata will mean very small sample sizes for each basic index. Small samples are subject to high variability and other types of inaccuracies. Establish the optimal size of an item stratum. We
measured stratum size from preliminary estimates of their
relative importances (the strata expenditure weight relative to
the total expenditure weight of the market basket) which we
derived from preliminary Consumer Expenditure Survey data. Final
data on the relative importances for the new structure will be
available with the release of the January 1998 CPI. Other considerations. Besides assuring that
strata were not too small, we also tried to see that they formed
natural groups, as consumers would view them. In the past, some
items were in industry groups. We formed item strata by putting
"like items" together. "Like items" were
defined according to the consumer view of products and services,
not in the way that the producing industries see them. For
example, using the consumer view, items within the same stratum
should have some affinity, such as substitutes (butter and
margarine), or complements (washers and dryers). Summary of actual changes About half of the sampled and priced item strata will undergo a definition change. These changes include two or more strata collapsing together, a stratum splitting into two or more strata, and more complex realignments in which a stratum may shed part of its product/service domain while picking up other products and services. In some cases, the definitional changes do not cause a break in the index continuity. In other cases, the definitional change in the item strata is so significant that the index series is considered a new series. No index history will be available for these series. Appendixes 3, 3a, and 3b provide information about index continuity. Table 1 shows the number of priced item strata that will undergo a definition change in the 1998 item structure as a percentage of the total number of priced strata by major group. Priced versus unsampled (formerly called unpriced) strata. The item strata that are unsampled are not assigned any sample and their price movement is imputed from the movement of priced strata. The following tabulation shows that the number of unsampled strata grew from 24 to 25. (The count of priced strata includes four strata representing health insurance retained earnings. Movements in the CPI indexes for these strata are measured as the product of changes in medical care price indexes and changes in estimated retained earnings ratios for categories of insurers.) Regardless, the share of the weight for all unpriced strata is expected to be less than 1 percent of the total expenditure weight:
Grouping item strata. The decisions
on forming sampling strata such as our item strata are based on
the needs of the CPI customers and the professional judgment of
the item specialists responsible for sectors of consumer
spending. Table 2 shows the change in the
distribution of priced strata from the current item structure to
the new one, by major group. Comparisons with other classification systems The item classification scheme presented in this article is
unique to the CPI. There are other statistical series that also
classify the set of all consumer goods and services which the CPI
calls the market basket. These series sometimes refer to this set
as "consumption space." The BLS Consumer Expenditure
Survey, for example, also provides data on personal consumption
by category.4 Another
organization of consumption space is found in Personal
Consumption Expenditures, which the Bureau of Economic Analysis
provides as part of the National Income and Product Accounts.
Footnotes 1 See "Changing the CPI Homeownership Method to Rental Equivalence," CPI Detailed Report (Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 1983), pp. 317. 2 Sylvia G. Leaver, William H. Johnson, Robert Baskin, Samuel Scarlett, and Robert Morse, "Commodities and Services Sample Redesign for the 1998 Consumer Price Index Revision," Proceedings of the Survey Methods Section (American Statistical Association, 1996), forthcoming. 3 See Elaine Cardenas, "Revision of the CPI hospital services component," in this issue, pages 4048, for a complete description of the CPI medical care methodological changes. 4 Consumer Expenditure Survey, 199293, Bulletin 2462 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 1995) is the most recent Consumer Expenditure Survey publication. 5 See "Changing the CPI Homeownership Method." Walter Lane is a branch chief in the Division of Consumer Prices and Price Indexes, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Last Modified Date: October 16, 2001 |
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