Frequently Asked Questions

Does BLS project future labor shortages or surpluses?

No. Attempts by some to ascribe shortages or surpluses to our projections are based on an incorrect comparison of the total employment and total labor force projections, two separate and fundamentally different measures. The total employment projection is a count of jobs and the labor force projection is a count of individuals. Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, i.e., one where labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection methodology, see "Employment Projections, 2008-2018," Kristina J. Bartsch, November 2009 Monthly Labor Review. For a discussion of labor shortages in the context of long-term projection models, see "Employment projections to 2012: concepts and context," Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly Labor Review. For a summary of recent trends in employment from the BLS household and employment surveys, see http://www.bls.gov/web/ces_cps_trends.pdf.

How often are the projections updated and where are they published?

The economic, employment, and labor force projections are usually updated every other year; the most recent update took place in December 2009. The projections are usually released first in the November issue of the Monthly Labor Review in odd-numbered years. They are also published in the Occupational Outlook Handbook.

What is the time horizon for BLS projections?

The projections have a 10 year span. Currently the projections go to 2018.

What are the fastest growing jobs?

The fastest growing jobs can be found in this table and reflect jobs with the largest rate of change, in terms of percentage.

What are the occupations adding the most jobs?

The occupations adding the largest number of positions can be found in this table.

What are the fastest growing industries?

The industries with the fastest growing jobs can be found in this table and rank the industries with jobs experiencing the largest rate of change, in terms of percentage.

Are there annual projections or just data for the terminal year?

The projections are available only for 2018.

Do you have projections for states or local areas?

BLS prepares projections only for the Nation as a whole. Projections of industry and occupational employment are prepared by each State, using input from the BLS National projections.

How accurate are BLS projections?

BLS evaluates its projections regularly and publishes these evaluations in the Monthly Labor Review.

How do the BLS employment projections account for recessions?

The analysis underlying the BLS employment projections focuses on long-term structural change and growth and assumes a full employment economy in the target year. To the extent that recessions can cause long-term structural change, they may impact the projections. However, BLS does not project recessions.

How were the BLS 2008-18 employment projections affected by the recent recession?

The BLS employment projections are based on analysis of long-term structural changes to the economy, not short-term business cycle fluctuations. BLS does not attempt to project the peaks and troughs of business cycles, and our projections model assumes a full employment economy in the target year. Because the economy is expected to trend out of the recession and return to full employment over the 10-year projections period, the current projections indicate faster growth rates and more numerous openings than might have been expected in several industries had employment not fallen in 2008, as the economy recovers from the current downturn.

For a more detailed discussion, see "Employment projections, 2008-2018" Kristina J. Bartsch, November 2009 Monthly Labor Review.

 

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Last Modified Date: December 10, 2009