Employment Projections: 2014-24 Summary

For release 10:00 a.m. (EST) Tuesday, December 8, 2015                       USDL-15-2327

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                            EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS -- 2014-24

Healthcare occupations and industries are expected to have the fastest employment growth
and to add the most jobs between 2014 and 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. With the increase in the proportion of the population in older age
groups, more people in the labor force will be entering prime retirement age. As a result,
the labor force participation rate is projected to decrease and labor force growth to
slow. This slowdown of labor force growth is expected, in turn, to lead to Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) growth of 2.2 percent annually over the decade. This economic growth is
projected to generate 9.8 million new jobs--a 6.5-percent increase between 2014 and 2024.

The projections are predicated on assumptions including a 5.2 percent unemployment rate
in 2024 and labor productivity growth of 1.8 percent annually over the projected period.
Highlights of the BLS projections for the labor force and macroeconomy, industry
employment, and occupational employment are included below.

Labor Force and the Macroeconomy

   --The civilian labor force is projected to reach 163.8 million in 2024, growing at
     an annual rate of 0.5 percent. (See table 1.)

   --The labor force continues to age. The median age of the labor force was 37.7 in
     1994, 40.3 in 2004, 41.9 in 2014, and is projected to be 42.4 in 2024. At the
     same time, the overall labor force participation rate is projected to decrease
     from 62.9 percent in 2014 to 60.9 percent in 2024.

   --The labor force participation rate for youth (ages 16 to 24) is projected to
     decrease from 55.0 percent in 2014 to 49.7 percent in 2024. The youth age
     group is projected to make up 11.3 percent of the civilian labor force in
     2024 as compared with 13.7 percent in 2014. In contrast, the labor force
     participation rate for the 65-and-older age group is projected to increase 
     from 18.6 percent in 2014 to 21.7 percent in 2024. This older age group is
     projected to represent 8.2 percent of the civilian labor force in 2024 as
     compared with 5.4 percent in 2014.

   --Labor force diversity is projected to increase, with white non-Hispanics making
     up 59.6 percent of the civilian labor force in 2024, compared with 64.6 percent
     in 2014.

   --Real GDP (2009 chained dollars) is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.2
     percent, from $16.1 trillion in 2014 to $19.9 trillion in 2024.

   --Within GDP, medical services will continue to grow as a share of nominal
     personal consumption expenditures. This category is projected to account for
     18.0 percent of consumption in 2024--higher than its 16.7-percent share in
     2014 and 15.0-percent share in 2004.

Industry Employment

   --Service-providing sectors are projected to capture 94.6 percent of all the
     jobs added between 2014 and 2024. Of these 9.3 million new service sector
     jobs, 3.8 million will be added to the healthcare and social assistance
     major sector.

   --The healthcare and social assistance major sector is expected to become the
     largest employing major sector during the projections decade, overtaking the
     state and local government major sector and the professional and business
     services major sector. Healthcare and social assistance is projected to
     increase its employment share from 12.0 percent in 2014 to 13.6 percent
     in 2024.

   --Construction is projected to add 790,400 jobs by 2024. Even with these
     additional jobs, employment in the construction major sector is not
     projected to return to the 2006 peak.

   --Manufacturing employment, between 2014 and 2024, is projected to decline at
     a 0.7 percent rate annually, a more moderate decline than the 1.6 percent
     rate experienced in the prior decade.

Occupational Employment

   --Healthcare support occupations and healthcare practitioners and technical
     occupations are projected to be the two fastest growing occupational
     groups during the 2014 to 2024 projections decade. These groups are
     projected to contribute the most new jobs, with a combined increase of
     2.3 million in employment, representing about 1 in 4 new jobs.

   --Of the 819 detailed occupations, employment in 602 occupations is projected
     to grow, while employment in 217 occupations is projected to decline.

   --Two major groups are projected to have declining employment. Together,
     production occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are
     projected to shed 339,300 jobs during the projections decade.

   --For 11 of the 15 fastest growing occupations, some level of postsecondary
     education is typically required for entry. (See table 5.)

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Last Modified Date: December 08, 2015