Technical information: (202) 691-5700 USDL 07-1847 http://www.bls.gov/emp/ For release: 10:00 A.M. EST Media contact: 691-5902 Tuesday, December 4, 2007 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS: 2006-16 Projections of industry and occupational employment, labor force, and economic growth covering the 2006-16 decade were released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor. The 10-year projections are widely used in career guidance, in education and training program planning, and in studying long-range employment trends. The pro- jections, which are updated every 2 years, continue a 60-year tradition of providing information to individuals who are making education and training choices, entering the job market, or changing careers. Over the 2006-16 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 15.6 million jobs, or 10 percent, slightly less than the 15.9 million jobs, or 12 percent, during the 1996-2006 decade. The labor force filling these jobs, while becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. This slowdown in the growth of the labor force is expected, in part, because of the aging and retiring of baby boomers. As a result, the need to replace workers who retire or leave the labor force for other reasons--called replacement needs--is projected to create a significant number of additional job openings. Industry Employment --Employment growth is projected to continue to be concentrated in the service-providing sector of the economy. Service-providing indus- tries will generate almost all of the employment gain from 2006 to 2016 and will provide more than three-quarters of all jobs in 2016. Professional and business services and health care and social assist- ance, the industry sectors with the largest employment growth, will add 8.1 million jobs, more than half of the projected increase in total employment. (See table 1.) --Within the goods-producing sector, construction is the only sector projected to grow. Employment in manufacturing will decline by 1.5 million jobs. This decline is half of the 3 million manufac- turing jobs lost in the previous decade (1996-2006). Employment in goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from 14.9 to 13.1 percent of total employment. (See table 1.) --The 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary employment growth--led by management, scientific, and technical con- sulting services; employment services; and general medical and surgical hospitals--all are in the service-providing sector. (See table 2.) --Four of the 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary employment declines are in the manufacturing sector, including printing and related support activities and motor vehicle parts manufacturing. (See table 3.) - 2 - Occupational Employment --Professional and related occupations and service occupations--2 major occupational groups on opposite ends of the educational and earnings ranges--are projected to grow the fastest and add the most jobs, accounting for more than 6 of 10 new jobs created over the 2006-16 decade. (See table 4.) --A large portion of job gains and losses are projected to be concentrated in a small number of detailed occupations. The 30 occupations with the largest numeric increases will account for more than half of all new jobs. (See table 5.) The 30 occupations with the largest numeric declines will account for more than two-thirds of all job losses from declining occupations. (See table 8.) --Nineteen of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth are in professional and related occupations and service occupations. (See table 5.) --Twenty-eight of the 30 fastest growing occupations are in professional and related occupations and service occupations. (See table 6.) --Job openings generally are more numerous in large occupations. Of the 30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 29 are projected to have more than 1 million jobs in 2016. (See table 7.) --Production occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are the two major occupational groups projected to lose employment over the decade. (See table 4.) Education and Training Categories --For 19 of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth, short- or moderate-term on-the-job training are the most significant sources of postsecondary education or training. (See table 5.) --For 15 of the 30 fastest growing occupations, a bachelor’s or higher degree is the most significant source of postsecondary education or training. (See table 6.) --On-the-job training and work experience are the most significant source of postsecondary education or training for 24 of the 30 occu- pations projected to have the most total job openings due to growth and net replacements. (See table 7.) --For 28 of the 30 occupations projected to have the largest employment declines, on-the-job training and work experience are the most signi- ficant sources of postsecondary education or training. (See table 8.) --The proportion of jobs in occupations that typically require a college degree will increase slightly between 2006 and 2016. (See table 9.) - 3 - Labor Force --The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 12.8 million over the 2006-16 decade, reaching 164.2 million by 2016. This 8.5 percent increase is less than the 13.1 percent increase over the previous decade--1996 to 2006--when the labor force grew by 17.5 million. (See table 10.) --The number of workers in the 55-and-older group is projected to grow by 46.7 percent, nearly 5.5 times the 8.5 percent growth projected for the labor force overall. (See table 10.) --Youths--those between the ages of 16 and 24--will decline in numbers and will see their share of the labor force fall from 14.8 to 12.7 percent. The number of prime-age workers--those between the ages of 25 and 54-- will increase by 2.4 percent, but their share of the labor force will decline from 68.4 to 64.6 percent. (See table 10.) --The Hispanic labor force is expected to grow by 29.9 percent, reaching 26.9 million by 2016, while the non-Hispanic labor force is projected to grow by only 5.1 percent. (See table 10.) --Increases in the labor force will vary by race. Whites will remain the largest race group despite relatively slow growth of 5.5 percent, composing 79.6 percent of the labor force by 2016. The number of blacks will grow by 16.2 percent and will constitute 12.3 percent of the labor force. Asians will continue to be the fastest growing race group, increasing by 29.9 percent and will make up 5.3 percent of the labor force by 2016. (See table 10.) A Note on Labor Shortages in the Context of Long-Term Economic Projections Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The measures upon which the employment and labor force projections are based are different. Employ- ment is a count of jobs; labor force is a count of individuals. In addition, the BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, that is, one where labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection methodology, see "An overview of BLS projections to 2016," James Franklin, November 2007 Monthly Labor Review. For a discussion of labor shortages in the context of long-term projection models, see "Employment projections to 2012: concepts and context," Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly Labor Review. Notes More detailed information on the 2006 to 2016 projections appears in five articles in the November 2007 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. The Monthly Labor Review is available online at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ mlr/welcome.htm. The forthcoming 2008-09 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and the Career Guide to Industries will feature the 2006-16 projections in assessing job prospects, work activities, earnings, educational require- ments, and more for numerous occupations and industries. The Handbook and Career Guide both will be available online December 18, 2007, at http://www. bls.gov/oco and http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg, respectively. A graphic pre- sentation of the highlights of the projections appears in the Fall 2007 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. The Quarterly is available online at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq. - 4 - Detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the projections will be published in the 2008-09 edition of the Occupational Projections and Training Data (OPTD). The OPTD will be available online May 2008 at http://www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm. The Occupational Outlook Handbook, Career Guide to Industries, Occupa- tional Outlook Quarterly, Occupational Projections and Training Data, and the Monthly Labor Review are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. To order, visit: http://www.bls.gov/emp/ emppub01.htm. To order Monthly Labor Review, visit: http://www.bls.gov/ opub/mlr/subscrib.htm. Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; TDD message referral phone: 1-800-877-8339. Table 1. Employment by major industry sector, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016 (In thousands) Average annual rate Industry sector Employment Change Percent distribution of change 1996 2006 2016 1996- 2006- 1996 2006 2016 1996- 2006- 2006 2016 2006 2016 Total (1) ........................... 134,690 150,620 166,220 15,930 15,600 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1 1.0 Nonagriculture wage and salary (2) .. 120,371 136,912 151,962 16,541 15,050 89.4 90.9 91.4 1.3 1.0 Goods-producing, excluding agriculture ...................... 23,329 22,505 21,773 -824 -732 17.3 14.9 13.1 -.4 -.3 Mining ............................. 556 619 608 62 -10 .4 .4 .4 1.1 -.2 Construction ....................... 5,536 7,689 8,470 2,153 781 4.1 5.1 5.1 3.3 1.0 Manufacturing ...................... 17,237 14,197 12,695 -3,039 -1,503 12.8 9.4 7.6 -1.9 -1.1 Service-providing ................... 97,043 114,407 130,190 17,364 15,782 72.0 76.0 78.3 1.7 1.3 Utilities .......................... 640 549 518 -91 -31 .5 .4 .3 -1.5 -.6 Wholesale trade .................... 5,522 5,898 6,326 376 429 4.1 3.9 3.8 .7 .7 Retail trade ....................... 14,143 15,319 16,006 1,177 687 10.5 10.2 9.6 .8 .4 Transportation and warehousing . ... 3,936 4,466 4,962 530 496 2.9 3.0 3.0 1.3 1.1 Information ........................ 2,940 3,055 3,267 115 212 2.2 2.0 2.0 .4 .7 Financial activities ............... 6,969 8,363 9,570 1,395 1,207 5.2 5.6 5.8 1.8 1.4 Professional and business services . 13,462 17,552 21,644 4,090 4,092 10.0 11.7 13.0 2.7 2.1 Educational services ............... 2,078 2,918 3,527 841 609 1.5 1.9 2.1 3.5 1.9 Health care and social assistance .. 11,605 14,920 18,954 3,315 4,034 8.6 9.9 11.4 2.5 2.4 Leisure and hospitality ............ 10,777 13,143 15,017 2,367 1,873 8.0 8.7 9.0 2.0 1.3 Other services ..................... 5,435 6,235 7,077 800 843 4.0 4.1 4.3 1.4 1.3 Federal government ................. 2,877 2,728 2,626 -149 -103 2.1 1.8 1.6 -.5 -.4 State and local government ......... 16,662 19,262 20,696 2,600 1,434 12.4 12.8 12.5 1.5 .7 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (3) ........................ 2,731 2,139 1,965 -592 -173 2.0 1.4 1.2 -2.4 -.8 Agriculture wage and salary ......... 1,390 1,220 1,114 -170 -105 1.0 .8 .7 -1.3 -.9 Agriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers ..................... 1,341 919 851 -422 -68 1.0 .6 .5 -3.7 -.8 Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers .............. 9,368 9,772 10,462 404 690 7.0 6.5 6.3 .4 .7 Secondary wage and salary jobs in agriculture and private household industries (4) .................... 177 178 185 2 7 .1 .1 .1 .1 .4 Secondary jobs as self-employed or unpaid family worker (5) ........... 2,043 1,619 1,646 -425 27 1.5 1.1 1.0 -2.3 .2 1 Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are from the Current Population Survey, which counts workers. 2 Includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except private households, which is from the Current Population Survey. Logging workers are excluded. 3 Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which is from the Current Employment Statistics survey. Government wage and salary workers are excluded. 4 Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private household industries. 5 Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker. Table 2. The 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2006-2016 (1) (In thousands) Industry Employment Change 2006 2016 Number Percent Management, scientific, and technical consulting services ........................ 921 1,639 718 77.9 Employment services .......................... 3,657 4,348 692 18.9 General medical and surgical hospitals, public and private ................................. 4,988 5,679 691 13.9 Elementary and secondary schools, public and private ..................................... 8,346 8,983 638 7.6 Local government, excluding education and hospitals ................................... 5,594 6,206 612 10.9 Offices of physicians ........................ 2,154 2,687 534 24.8 Limited-service eating places ................ 4,019 4,548 529 13.2 Colleges, universities, and professional schools, public and private ................. 3,434 3,933 499 14.5 Computer systems design and related services . 1,278 1,768 489 38.3 Home health care services .................... 867 1,348 481 55.4 1 Data are from the National Employment Matrix. Table 3. The 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines, 2006-2016 (1) (In thousands) Industry Employment Change 2006 2016 Number Percent Gasoline stations ................................ 861 716 -146 -16.9 Printing and related support activities .......... 636 497 -139 -21.8 Motor vehicle parts manufacturing ................ 654 516 -138 -21.1 Department stores ................................ 1,551 1,438 -113 -7.3 Cut and sew apparel manufacturing ................ 186 77 -108 -58.4 Wired telecommunications carriers ................ 478 379 -99 -20.8 Crop production; primary job ..................... 539 441 -98 -18.2 Federal government, excluding postal service ..... 1,958 1,869 -90 -4.6 Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores ..... 379 300 -79 -20.9 Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing .. 199 132 -67 -33.5 1 Data are from the National Employment Matrix. Table 4. Employment by major occupational group, 2006 and projected 2016 (In thousands) Occupational group Employment Percent distribution Change 2006 2016 2006 2016 Percent Number Total, all occupations ......................... 150,620 166,220 100.0 100.0 10.4 15,600 Management, business, and financial occupations (1) ............................... 15,397 16,993 10.2 10.2 10.4 1,596 Professional and related occupations (2) ....... 29,819 34,790 19.8 20.9 16.7 4,970 Service occupations (3) ........................ 28,950 33,780 19.2 20.3 16.7 4,830 Sales and related occupations .................. 15,985 17,203 10.6 10.3 7.6 1,218 Office and administrative support occupations .. 24,344 26,089 16.2 15.7 7.2 1,745 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations ..... 1,039 1,010 .7 .6 -2.8 -29 Construction and extraction occupations ........ 8,295 9,079 5.5 5.5 9.5 785 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations ................................... 5,883 6,433 3.9 3.9 9.3 550 Production occupations ......................... 10,675 10,147 7.1 6.1 -4.9 -528 Transportation and material moving occupations . 10,233 10,695 6.8 6.4 4.5 462 1 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Table 5. The 30 occupations with the largest employment growth, 2006-2016 (In thousands) Most significant source of Occupation Occupational group Employment Change postsecondary education or training (1) 2006 2016 Number Percent Registered nurses .......................... Professional and related occupations (2).............. 2,505 3,092 587 23.5 Associate degree Retail salespersons ........................ Sales and related occupations . 4,477 5,034 557 12.4 Short-term on-the-job training Customer service representatives ........... Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the- support occupations .......... 2,202 2,747 545 24.8 job training Combined food preparation and serving Short-term on-the-job workers, including fast food .............. Service occupations (3)........ 2,503 2,955 452 18.1 training Office clerks, general ..................... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job support occupations .......... 3,200 3,604 404 12.6 training Personal and home care aides ............... Service occupations (3) ....... 767 1,156 389 50.6 Short-term on-the-job training Home health aides .......................... Service occupations (3) ....... 787 1,171 384 48.7 Short-term on-the-job training Postsecondary teachers ..................... Professional and related occupations (2) .............. 1,672 2,054 382 22.9 Doctoral degree Janitors and cleaners, except maids and Short-term on-the-job housekeeping cleaners ..................... Service occupations (3) ....... 2,387 2,732 345 14.5 training Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants ... Service occupations (3) ....... 1,447 1,711 264 18.2 Postsecondary vocational award Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the- clerks .................................... support occupations .......... 2,114 2,377 264 12.5 job training Short-term on-the-job Waiters and waitresses ..................... Service occupations (3) ....... 2,361 2,615 255 10.8 training Short-term on-the-job Child care workers ......................... Service occupations (3) ....... 1,388 1,636 248 17.8 training Executive secretaries and administrative ... Office and administrative Work experience in a assistants ................................ support occupations .......... 1,618 1,857 239 14.8 related occupation Computer software engineers, applications .. Professional and related occupations (2) .............. 507 733 226 44.6 Bachelor's degree Accountants and auditors ................... Management, business, and financial occupations (4) .... 1,274 1,500 226 17.7 Bachelor's degree Landscaping and groundskeeping workers ..... Service occupations (3) ....... 1,220 1,441 221 18.1 Short-term on-the-job training Elementary school teachers, except special Professional and related education ................................. occupations (2) .............. 1,540 1,749 209 13.6 Bachelor's degree Receptionists and information clerks ....... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job support occupations .......... 1,173 1,375 202 17.2 training Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer ... Transportation and material Moderate-term on-the- moving occupations ........... 1,860 2,053 193 10.4 job training Maids and housekeeping cleaners ............ Service occupations (3) ....... 1,470 1,656 186 12.7 Short-term on-the-job training Security guards ............................ Service occupations (3) ....... 1,040 1,216 175 16.9 Short-term on-the-job training Carpenters ................................. Construction and extraction Long-term on-the-job occupations .................. 1,462 1,612 150 10.3 training Bachelor's or higher Management analysts ........................ Management, business, and degree, plus work financial occupations (4) .... 678 827 149 21.9 experience Medical assistants ......................... Service occupations (3) ....... 417 565 148 35.4 Moderate-term on-the- job training Computer systems analysts .................. Professional and related occupations (2) .............. 504 650 146 29.0 Bachelor's degree Maintenance and repair workers, general .... Installation, maintenance, and Moderate-term on-the- repair occupations ............ 1,391 1,531 140 10.1 job training Network systems and data communications Professional and related analysts .................................. occupations (2) .............. 262 402 140 53.4 Bachelor's degree Food preparation workers ................... Service occupations (3) ....... 902 1,040 138 15.3 Short-term on-the-job training Teacher assistants ......................... Professional and related Short-term on-the-job occupations (2) .............. 1,312 1,449 137 10.4 training 1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2006-07 edition,Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition, Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). 2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 4 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Table 6. The 30 fastest-growing occupations, 2006-2016 (In thousands) Most significant source of Occupation Occupational group Employment Change postsecondary education or training (1) 2006 2016 Number Percent Network systems and data communications Professional and related analysts .................................. occupations (2) .............. 262 402 140 53.4 Bachelor's degree Personal and home care aides ............... Service occupations (3) ....... 767 1,156 389 50.6 Short-term on-the-job training Home health aides .......................... Service occupations (3) ....... 787 1,171 384 48.7 Short-term on-the-job training Computer software engineers, applications .. Professional and related occupations (2) .............. 507 733 226 44.6 Bachelor's degree Veterinary technologists and technicians ... Professional and related occupations (2) .............. 71 100 29 41.0 Associate degree Personal financial advisors ................ Management, business, and financial occupations (4) .... 176 248 72 41.0 Bachelor's degree Makeup artists, theatrical and performance . Service occupations (3) ....... 2 3 1 39.8 Postsecondary vocational award Medical assistants ......................... Service occupations (3) ....... 417 565 148 35.4 Moderate-term on-the- job training Veterinarians .............................. Professional and related occupations (2) .............. 62 84 22 35.0 First professional degree Substance abuse and behavioral disorder Professional and related counselors ................................ occupations (2) .............. 83 112 29 34.3 Bachelor's degree Skin care specialists ...................... Service occupations (3) ....... 38 51 13 34.3 Postsecondary vocational award Financial analysts ........................ Management, business, and financial occupations (4) .... 221 295 75 33.8 Bachelor's degree Social and human service assistants ....... Professional and related Moderate-term on-the- occupations (2) .............. 339 453 114 33.6 job training Gaming surveillance officers and gaming Moderate-term on-the- investigators ............................ Service occupations (3) ....... 9 12 3 33.6 job training Physical therapist assistants .............. Service occupations (3) ....... 60 80 20 32.4 Associate degree Pharmacy technicians ....................... Professional and related Moderate-term on-the- occupations (2) .............. 285 376 91 32.0 job training Forensic science technicians ................ Professional and related occupations (2) .............. 13 17 4 30.7 Bachelor's degree Dental hygienists ........................... Professional and related occupations (2) .............. 167 217 50 30.1 Associate degree Mental health counselors .................... Professional and related occupations (2) .............. 100 130 30 30.0 Master's degree Mental health and substance abuse social Professional and related workers .................................... occupations (2) ............. 122 159 37 29.9 Master's degree Marriage and family therapists .............. Professional and related occupations (2).............. 25 32 7 29.8 Master's degree Dental assistants ........................... Service occupations (3) 280 362 82 29.2 Moderate-term on-the- job training Computer systems analysts ................... Professional and related occupations (2) ............. 504 650 146 29.0 Bachelor's degree Database administrators ..................... Professional and related occupations (2) ............. 119 154 34 28.6 Bachelor's degree Computer software engineers, systems Professional and relate software ................................... occupations (2) ............. 350 449 99 28.2 Bachelor's degree Gaming and sports book writers and runners .. Service occupations (3) 18 24 5 28.0 Short-term on-the-job training Environmental science and protection Professional and related technicians, including health .............. occupations (2) ............. 36 47 10 28.0 Associate degree Manicurists and pedicurists ................. Service occupations (3) 78 100 22 27.6 Postsecondary vocational award Physical therapists ......................... Professional and related occupations (2) ............ 173 220 47 27.1 Master's degree Physician assistants ........................ Professional and related occupations (2) ........ 66 83 18 27.0 Master's degree 1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2006-07 edition,Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition, Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). 2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 4 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Table 7. The 30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2006-2016 (In thousands) Total job Net openings due Most significant source of Occupation Occupational group Employment Change replacement to growth postsecondary education needs and net or training (1) 2006 2016 Number replacements(1) Retail salespersons .............. Sales and related Short-term on-the-job occupations ............ 4,477 5,034 557 1,378 1,935 training Cashiers, except gaming .......... Sales and related Short-term on-the-job occupations ............ 3,500 3,382 -118 1,664 1,664 training Waiters and waitresses ............. Service occupations (3) . 2,361 2,615 255 1,282 1,537 Short-term on-the-job training Customer service representatives .. Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the- support occupations .... 2,202 2,747 545 613 1,158 training Registered nurses ................. Professional and related occupations (2)........ 2,505 3,092 587 413 1,001 Associate degree Office clerks, general ............ Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job support occupations .... 3,200 3,604 404 587 991 training Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast Short-term on-the-job food ............................. Service occupations (3) . 2,503 2,955 452 475 927 training Transportation and Laborers and freight, stock, and material moving Short-term on-the-job material movers, hand ............ occupations ............ 2,416 2,466 50 773 823 training Janitors and cleaners, except maids Short-term on-the-job and housekeeping cleaners ......... Service occupations (3) . 2,387 2,732 345 457 802 training Postsecondary teachers ............. Professional and related occupations (2) ........ 1,672 2,054 382 280 662 Doctoral degree Child care workers ................. Service occupations (3) . 1,388 1,636 248 399 646 Short-term on-the-job training Bookkeeping, accounting, and Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the- auditing clerks .................... support occupations .... 2,114 2,377 264 331 594 job training Elementary school teachers, except Professional and related special education .................. occupations (2) ........ 1,540 1,749 209 336 545 Bachelor's degree Truck drivers, heavy and tractor- Transportation and trailer ........................... material moving Moderate-term on-the- occupations ............ 1,860 2,053 193 330 523 job training Personal and home care aides ....... Service occupations (3) . 767 1,156 389 130 519 Short-term on-the-job training Executive secretaries and Office and administrative Work experience in a administrative assistants ......... support occupations .... 1,618 1,857 239 258 497 related occupation Receptionists and information Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job clerks............................. support occupations .... 1,173 1,375 202 287 489 training Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and Sales and related Work experience in a scientific products ............... occupations ............ 1,562 1,693 131 345 476 related occupation Maids and housekeeping cleaners .... Service occupations (3) . 1,470 1,656 186 277 463 Short-term on-the-job training Home health aides .................. Service occupations (3) . 787 1,171 384 70 454 Short-term on-the-job training Food preparation workers ............ Service occupations (3) . 902 1,040 138 313 451 Short-term on-the-job training Accountants and auditors ............ Management, business, and financial occupations (4) ........ 1,274 1,500 226 224 450 Bachelor's degree General and operations managers ..... Management, business Bachelor's or higher and financial degree, plus work occupations (4) ........ 1,720 1,746 26 415 441 experience Counter attendants, cafeteria, food Short-term on-the-job concession, and coffee shop ........ Service occupations (3) . 533 587 54 370 424 training First-line supervisors/managers of Sales and related Work experience in a retail sales workers ............... occupations ............ 1,676 1,747 71 352 423 related occupation Stock clerks and order fillers ...... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job support occupations .... 1,705 1,574 -131 405 405 training Nursing aides, orderlies, and Postsecondary vocational attendants ....................... Service occupations (3) . 1,447 1,711 264 130 393 award Short-term on-the-job Security guards ................... Service occupations (3) . 1,040 1,216 175 211 387 training Landscaping and groundskeeping Short-term on-the-job workers .......................... Service occupations (3) .. 1,220 1,441 221 161 382 training First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support Office and administrative Work experience in a workers .......................... support occupations .... 1,418 1,500 82 293 374 related occupation 1 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 4 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2006-07 edition, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition, Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). 5 Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. For more information about the occupational replacement needs, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2006-07 edition, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition, Table 8. The 30 occupations with the largest employment declines, 2006-2016 (In thousands) Most significant source of Occupation Occupational group Employment Change postsecondary education or training (1) 2006 2016 Number Percent Stock clerks and order fillers ...... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job support occupations .......... 1,705 1,574 -131 -7.7 training Cashiers, except gaming ............. Sales and related occupations . 3,500 3,382 -118 -3.4 Short-term on-the-job training Packers and packagers, hand ......... Transportation and material Short-term on-the-job moving occupations ........... 834 730 -104 -12.4 training File clerks ......................... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job support occupations .......... 234 137 -97 -41.3 training Farmers and ranchers ................ Management, business, and Long-term on-the-job financial occupations (2) .... 1,058 969 -90 -8.5 training Order clerks ........................ Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job support occupations .......... 271 205 -66 -24.3 training Sewing machine operators ............ Production occupations ........ 233 170 -63 -27.2 Moderate-term on-the- job training Electrical and electronic equipment Short-term on-the-job assemblers ......................... Production occupations ........ 213 156 -57 -26.8 training Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, Moderate-term on-the- metal and plastic .................. Production occupations ........ 272 231 -40 -14.9 job training Telemarketers ...................... Sales and related occupations . 395 356 -39 -9.9 Short-term on-the-job training Inspectors, testers, sorters, Moderate-term on-the- samplers, and weighers............ Production occupations ........ 491 457 -35 -7.0 job training First-line supervisors/managers of Work experience in a production and operating workers . Production occupations ........ 699 665 -34 -4.8 related occupation Computer operators ................ Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the- support occupations .......... 130 98 -32 -24.7 job training Photographic processing machine Short-term on-the-job operators ....................... Production occupations ........ 49 25 -25 -49.8 training Driver/sales workers ............. Transportation and material Short-term on-the-job moving occupations ........... 445 421 -24 -5.3 training Machine feeders and offbearers ... Transportation and material Short-term on-the-job moving occupations ........... 148 125 -22 -15.2 training Packaging and filling machine Short-term on-the-job operators and tenders ........... Production occupations ........ 386 365 -21 -5.4 training Word processors and typists ...... Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the- support occupations .......... 179 158 -21 -11.6 job training Paper goods machine setters, Moderate-term on-the- operators, and tenders .......... Production occupations ........ 113 93 -21 -18.2 job training Farmworkers and laborers, crop, Farming, fishing, and forestry Short-term on-the-job nursery, and greenhouse ......... occupations .................. 603 583 -20 -3.4 training Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and Moderate-term on-the- tenders, metal and plastic ...... Production occupations ........ 157 137 -20 -12.8 job training Computer programmers ............. Professional and related occupations (3) .............. 435 417 -18 -4.1 Bachelor's degree Mail clerks and mail machine operators, except postal Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job service ......................... support occupations .......... 152 134 -18 -11.6 training Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job operators ....................... support occupations .......... 198 181 -17 -8.4 training Lathe and turning machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, Moderate-term on-the- metal and plastic ............... Production occupations ........ 68 52 -16 -23.3 job training Prepress technicians and workers . Production occupations ........ 71 56 -15 -21.1 Postsecondary vocational award Switchboard operators, including Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job answering service ............... support occupations .......... 177 163 -15 -8.4 training Data entry keyers ................ Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the- support occupations .......... 313 299 -15 -4.7 job training Bindery workers .................. Production occupations ........ 65 51 -14 -21.8 Short-term on-the-job training 1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2006-07 edition, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition, Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). 2 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 3 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Table 9. Employment and total job openings by postsecondary education and training category (In thousands) Most significant source Employment Change of postsecondary Number Percent distribution 2006-2016 education and training (1) 2006 2016 2006 2016 Number Percent Total, all occupations ............. 150,620 166,220 100.0 100.0 15,600 10.4 First professional degree ............... 1,970 2,247 1.3 1.4 277 14.0 Doctoral degree ......................... 2,025 2,462 1.3 1.5 437 21.6 Master's degree ......................... 2,167 2,575 1.4 1.5 409 18.9 Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience ..........,.................. 6,524 7,117 4.3 4.3 592 9.1 Bachelor's degree ....................... 18,585 21,659 12.3 13.0 3,074 16.5 Associate degree ........................ 5,812 6,899 3.9 4.2 1,087 18.7 Postsecondary vocational award .......... 7,901 8,973 5.2 5.4 1,072 13.6 Work experience in a related occupation . 14,579 15,889 9.7 9.6 1,310 9.0 Long-term on-the-job training ........... 11,489 12,200 7.6 7.3 711 6.2 Moderate-term on-the-job training ....... 27,230 29,248 18.1 17.6 2,018 7.4 Short-term on-the-job training .......... 52,339 56,951 34.7 34.3 4,613 8.8 1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more informa- tion about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2006-07 edition, Bul- letin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition, Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). Table 10. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016 (In thousands) Annual growth Age, sex, race, and Level Change Percent change Percent distribution rate (percent) ethnicity 1996 2006 2016 1996- 2006- 1996- 2006- 1996- 2006- 2006 2016 2006 2016 1996 2006 2016 2006 2016 Total, 16 years and older................. 133,943 151,428 164,232 17,485 12,804 13.1 8.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.2 0.8 Age, years: 16 to 24 ............. 21,183 22,394 20,852 1,211 -1,542 5.7 -6.9 15.8 14.8 12.7 .6 -.7 25 to 54 ............. 96,786 103,566 106,026 6,780 2,460 7.0 2.4 72.3 68.4 64.6 .7 .2 55 and older ......... 15,974 25,468 37,354 9,494 11,886 59.4 46.7 11.9 16.8 22.7 4.8 3.9 Sex: Men .................. 72,087 81,255 87,781 9,168 6,526 12.7 8.0 53.8 53.7 53.4 1.2 .8 Women ................ 61,857 70,173 76,450 8,316 6,277 13.4 8.9 46.2 46.3 46.6 1.3 .9 Race: White ................ 113,108 123,834 130,665 10,726 6,831 9.5 5.5 84.4 81.8 79.6 .9 .5 Black ................ 15,134 17,314 20,121 2,180 2,807 14.4 16.2 11.3 11.4 12.3 1.4 1.5 Asian ................ 5,701 6,727 8,741 1,026 2,014 18.0 29.9 4.3 4.4 5.3 1.7 2.7 All other groups (1) . - 3,553 4,705 - 1,152 - 32.4 - 2.3 2.9 - 2.8 Ethnicity: Hispanic origin ...... 12,774 20,694 26,889 7,920 6,195 62.0 29.9 9.5 13.7 16.4 4.9 2.7 Other than Hispanic .. 121,169 30,734 137,343 9,565 6,609 7.9 5.1 90.5 86.3 83.6 .8 .5 White non-Hispanic ... 100,915 104,629 106,133 3,714 1,504 3.7 1.4 75.3 69.1 64.6 .4 .1 1 The "all other groups" category includes (1) those classified as being of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. NOTE: Dash indicates no data collected for category.