FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.S.T. FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 1999 Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press under lock-up conditions with the explicit understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Statement of Katharine G. Abraham Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday, February 5, 1999 Good morning. I am pleased to have this opportunity to comment on the employment and unemployment data that we released this morning. The unemployment rate was unchanged in January, at 4.3 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment, as measured by our establishment survey, increased by 245,000 over the month, about in line with the average over the prior 12 months. Most of the industry divisions contributed to the January rise. January job gains were led by the services industry, which had about-average growth, adding 114,000 jobs. Engineering and management services and computer services continued their strong growth trends. These industries expanded by 27,000 and 17,000 jobs, respectively. Employment in amusement and recreation increased by 13,000, reversing a similar decline in December. Help supply services employment was up 8,000 over the month; over the year, help supply employment rose by 58,000, compared with 295,000 over the prior year. Health services employment gains were weak. While employment in medical offices was up by 9,000, hospital employment was flat and home health care services lost jobs. Finance and real estate continued to show strength in January, adding 11,000 jobs each. Within finance, increases were spread among banks, brokerages, and investment offices. Wholesale trade employment rose by 28,000 in January, following a small increase in December. In retail trade, employment was up 30,000 over the month, after seasonal adjustment. Building supply stores added 13,000 jobs over the month, reflecting the recent strength of construction activity. Apparel stores and miscellaneous retail establishments, such as bookstores and jewelry stores, hired fewer workers than usual for the holiday season. As a result, January layoffs were lighter than expected by our seasonal factors, which led to over-the-month increases in employment on a seasonally adjusted basis. In contrast, employment in department stores dropped by a roughly offsetting amount, as unusually strong holiday hiring was followed by large post-holiday layoffs in January. Employment growth was strong for the second month in a row in both the transportation and communications industries. The trucking industry accounted for nearly all of the 13,000 January increase in transportation. Communications employment advanced by 11,000 over the month, led by strength in telephone communications. Government employment was up 36,000 in January. The over-the-month increase was confined to local government, with gains occurring in both its education and noneducation components. In the goods-producing industries, construction added 15,000 jobs, despite severe winter weather in the Midwest and Northeast, which halted some outdoor construction activity during the January survey reference week. Since September, on a seasonally adjusted basis, construction has added 184,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment fell again in January, though both the December and January declines were substantially less than those in October and November. Industrial machinery and electronic components continued to lose jobs; since March, the two industries have lost 69,000 and 63,000 jobs, respectively. Apparel continued its long-term decline with a loss of 8,000 jobs. Since its most recent peak in November 1991, employment in apparel manufacturing has fallen by 294,000, or 29 percent. On the positive side, lumber and wood products added 8,000 jobs in January, reflecting recent strength in construction activity. Auto manufacturing posted its first gain since October, adding 6,000 jobs, and employment grew for the third consecutive month in both food products (8,000) and rubber and miscellaneous plastics (5,000). Mining lost 9,000 jobs over the month as low oil prices continued to affect U.S. oil production. The industry has lost 48,000 jobs since its most recent peak in September 1997. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers in the private sector grew by 6 cents in January, to $13.04. This was the largest monthly increase since August. Over the year, hourly earnings increased by 50 cents, or 4.0 percent. The average workweek ticked down a tenth of an hour to 34.5 hours in January, and the manufacturing workweek fell two-tenths of an hour to 41.5 hours. Turning now to our survey of households, the unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in January. It has remained at or below 4.5 percent since April of last year. The unemployment rate for workers of Hispanic origin dropped 1.0 percentage point in January to 6.6 percent. Rates for the other major worker groups were essentially unchanged. Civilian employment increased by 814,000 (after removing the effect of revisions to population controls, which I will describe in a moment). Employment of both adult men and adult women grew. The civilian employment-to-population ratio rose three-tenths of a percentage point to a new high of 64.5 percent. The January household survey data incorporate revised estimates of the civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and over. These revisions primarily reflect newly updated demographic information on immigrants to, and emigrants from, the United States. The revisions raise the January 1999 estimate of the population age 16 and over by 307,000. The impact of the revision varies across subgroups of the population, such as men (-183,000), women (491,000), Hispanic origin (-164,000) and non-Hispanic origin (471,000). The revised controls increase the estimated size of the labor force and total employment by about 60,000 each, as more substantial, but offsetting, changes occurred among population subgroups. The population revisions had a negligible impact on the unemployment rate and other percentages. In summary, nonfarm payroll employment rose moderately in January, and unemployment was essentially unchanged. My colleagues and I now would be glad to respond to your questions. 4 6