FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.D.T. FRIDAY, JUNE 6, 1997 Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press under lock-up conditions with the explicit understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time. Statement of Katharine G. Abraham Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics before the Joint Economic Committee UNITED STATES CONGRESS Friday, June 6, 1997 Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee: I appreciate this opportunity to comment on the labor market data released this morning. Nonfarm payroll employment rose in May, and the unemployment rate was about unchanged following a drop in April. At 4.8 percent, the jobless rate is half a percentage point lower than at the end of 1996. Payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May and has averaged 229,000 per month thus far this year. Employment in the services industry rose by 125,000. Amusement and recreation services added 32,000 jobs, after showing little change in the prior 2 months. Hotel employment increased by 13,000 following a gain of similar magnitude in April. Job growth also continued in health services, computer and data processing services, and engineering and management services. Help supply services lost jobs for the second straight month, with a combined loss of over the two months of 55,000. In construction, employment rose by 23,000 in May, following a decline in April. The uneven month-to-month movements in construction employment this winter and spring have reflected the unusual weather conditions over the period. Taking a slightly longer-term perspective, the number of construction jobs increased by 101,000 during the first five months of 1997, somewhat less than the gain for the same period in 1996. In May, employment growth continued in trucking, air transportation, finance, real estate, and the durable goods component of wholesale trade. In retail trade, employment held steady following a substantial increase in April. The number of factory jobs was about unchanged for the second month in a row. Employment continued to increase in electronic components, industrial machinery, and aircraft manufacturing; these gains, however, were offset by continued declines in apparel and an over-the-month drop in food products manufacturing. Auto manufacturing employment was down in May due to a strike. Manufacturing hours and overtime edged down in May, but at 42.0 and 4.8 hours, respectively, both measures remain near historically high levels. Average hourly earnings increased 4 cents in May following a gain of 1 cent in April. Over the year, hourly earnings rose 3.8 percent. The over-the-year gains during the first five months of this year have been running higher than during the same period in 1996. In accordance with standard practice, these payroll survey figures reflect the incorporation of our regularly scheduled annual benchmark adjustments. Each year, we adjust our sample-based survey estimates to full universe counts of employment, derived principally from the administrative records of the state unemployment insurance tax system. There is no benchmark source for the hours and earnings data, but these series may be affected by the benchmark process because of changes in the industry employment weights and the introduction of new seasonal factors. The impact of the revisions on employment in the March 1996 reference month is a very small upward adjustment of 57,000, or less than one-tenth of one percent of the total nonfarm employment level. Estimates of payroll employment for the post-benchmark period, April 1996 forward, also have been revised to incorporate the new benchmark levels as well as revised seasonal adjustment and bias factors; the net effects of these post-benchmark revisions also were small. Turning to the data from our survey of households, the unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in May, a level last reached in 1973. Over the month, the jobless rate decreased for adult men; the rates for adults of both sexes have edged down in recent months. The number of long-term unemployed--those unemployed for 27 weeks or more--also has trended downward since the beginning of the year. Since the end of 1995, employment as measured by our household survey has increased by 4.3 million (after adjusting for the change in population controls made in January of this year). Some analysts have wondered how such a substantial increase in employment could have occurred during a period when unemployment already was low. Even with the current high level of labor force participation, however, there are more than 66 million people aged 16 or older who are not working or actively seeking work. Although our household survey tries to measure whether these persons not in the labor force want a job, changes in labor market conditions may cause people who previously had expressed no desire to work to seek employment or to take a job. For example, a retired person may have no interest in finding a job until he or she sees a help wanted sign in a local store and realizes that conveniently located employment can be readily obtained. In other words, the size of the available labor force is not fixed, but rather depends upon individual decisions based on personal and economic conditions that are constantly changing. To summarize, unemployment remained below 5 percent in May, and payroll employment growth continued, although the increase for the month was smaller than the average thus far in 1997. My colleagues and I now would be glad to respond to your questions. 5 2