Related BLS programs | Related articles
November 1983, Vol. 106, No. 11
Economic outlook for the 1990s:
three scenarios for economic growth
Arthur J. Andreassen, Norman C. Saunders and Betty W. Su
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared trend projections of growth in aggregate and industry demand for the 1982-95 period, updating prior projections to 1990 and extending the analysis to 1995.1 The projections are part of a Bureau program of studies aimed at analyzing medium-term economic growth and the implications for the structure of employment by industry and occupation. The new estimates consist of a moderate-growth case, and high-growth and low-growth alternatives, which examine the effects of alternate policies on U.S. economic growth, distribution of demand, and employment.
It should be noted that none of the three projections should be favored as the most likely. The intent in preparing them was not to forecast future economic performance but, rather, to examine the implications of a reasonable range of demand growth over the projection period. The projections represent only three of many possible responses of the economy to differing fiscal and monetary stimulae. A different perspective on the inner working of the U.S. aggregate economy could easily lead one to arrive at completely different results. For this reason, the high-growth and low-growth alternatives should not be viewed as the "good" forecast and the "bad" forecast, but rather as vehicles for generating a reasonable spread in gross national product (GNP) and employment growth to 1995.
This excerpt is from an article published in the November 1983 issue of the Monthly Labor Review. The full text of the article is available in Adobe Acrobat's Portable Document Format (PDF). See How to view a PDF file for more information.
Read abstract Download full article in PDF (1,208K)
1 As part of a continuing program to assess the validity of BLS projections, a future article will evaluate the projections of the U.S. economy for 190. For previous articles see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "The 1995 labor force: a first look," Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21; Norman C. Saunders, "The U.S. economy through 1990an update," Monthly Labor Review, August 1981, pp. 18-27; Valerie A. Personick, "The outlook for industry output and employment through 1990," Monthly Labor Review, August 1981, pp. 28-41; Max L. Carey, "Occupational employment growth through 1990," Monthly Labor Review, August 1981, pp. 42-55; and Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "How accurate were the 1980 labor force projections?," Monthly Labor Review, July 1982, pp. 15-21.
Related BLS programs
Related Monthly Labor Review articles
The U.S. economy to 2010—Nov. 2001.
U.S. economy to 2008: a decade of continued growth, The.—Nov. 1999.
The U.S. economy to 2006.—Nov. 1997.
The U.S. economy to 2005.—Nov. 1995.
The U.S. economy to 2005: framework for BLS projections.—Nov. 1993.
New BLS projections: findings and implications.—Nov. 1991.
The aggregate structure of the economy.—Nov. 1989.
Within Monthly Labor Review Online:
Welcome | Current Issue | Index | Subscribe | Archives
Exit Monthly Labor Review Online:
BLS Home | Publications & Research Papers