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November 1983, Vol. 106, No. 11
The job outlook through 1995:
industry output and employment projections
Valerie A. Personick
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest projections of industry output and employment indicate that contrary to several popular reports the decade of the 1990s will not see the demise of America's smokestack industries. A sizable portion of the recent factory job loss can be attributed to the 1980-82 recessionary period, and as the economy recovers, heavy manufacturing industries should increase employment. Job gains in manufacturing will account for almost 1 of 6 new jobs between 1982 and 1995. (See table 1.) Manufacturing, which represented 25 percent of all jobs in 1959 but less than 19 percent in 1982, is projected to maintain this steady share throughout the 1982-95 period. (See table 2.)
Because manufacturing job gains primarily reflect a rebound from the low recession levels, much of the growth occurs in the early part of the projection span. About 3 million jobs are projected to be added to factory employment by 1990, but only about 1.3 million between 1990 and 1995. Furthermore, despite the recovery, employment in several key manufacturing industries (for example, autos and steel), are not expected to reach previous peaks, at least not by 1995. A turnaround in demand is projected to boost production in these sectors, but productivity improvements and technological change will limit job expansion.
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