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November 1989, Vol. 112, No. 11
Industry output and employment: a slower trend for the nineties
Valerie A. Personick
The U.S. economy is projected to add another 18 million jobs by the year 2000, an average of 1.5 million per year from 1988. This rate of growth is slower than in the past, when annual job gains averaged 2.3 million over a comparable 12-year period. Slower growth is directly tied to the expectation of less labor force expansion over the next decade.
The 18 million new jobs are expected to be added primarily in the service-producing sector. In contrast, manufacturing employment is projected to shrink slightly, from 19.4 million in 1988 to 19.1 million at the turn of the century. Among the service-sector leaders, retail trade is expected to add 3.8 million jobs; private health services, 3.0 million; and business services, 2.7 million. Government employment, especially in public schools and in State and local safety and general government functions, is also projected to add about 1. 6 million new jobs. Despite these gains, the rate of growth for all these divisions from 1988 to 2000 is much slower than that between 1976 and 1988.
Total job growth averaged 2.3 percent a year from 1976 to 1988, but is only expected to average 1.2 percent annually through 2000. Job growth parallels the projected growth in the labor force. Details are in the article by Howard N Fullerton on pp. 3-12, but in broad terms, a slowdown in labor force growth projected for the nineties is a continuation of a trend that started in the late 1970's, as the baby-boom generation became fully absorbed into the labor force. Coupled with the smaller numbers of new, young workers during the next decade is the expectation of a slowdown in the rate of increase of female labor force participation.
This excerpt is from an article published in the November 1989 issue of the Monthly Labor Review. The full text of the article is available in Adobe Acrobat's Portable Document Format (PDF). See How to view a PDF file for more information.
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