Article

December 2013

Industry employment and output projections to 2022

The health care and social assistance sector will account for almost a third of the projected job growth from 2012 to 2022. Employment in the construction sector is expected to see a large increase, while still not reaching prerecession levels. Manufacturing is projected to experience a slight decline in employment over the projection period.

The recession that began in December 2007 and ended in June 20091 had a major impact on both real output and employment. Although the recession ended in 2009, total employment, which tends to lag in recovery, did not begin to rebound until 2011.2 Employment in some sectors, such as health care and social assistance, grew over the recession period, seemingly unaffected by adverse economic conditions, while employment in other sectors, such as construction and manufacturing, experienced declines. Every 2 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides employment projections that look at long-term employment trends. Because the recession affected sectors and industries differently, the expected employment growth over the projection period reflects the relative effects of the recession as employment growth continues on or returns to long-term trends. Given that BLS is looking at longer term trends, the industry-level discussion in this article assumes that the economy is at or near full employment. Within that context, the article presents the industry-level perspective of the BLS employment projections.

BLS projects that total employment in the United States will reach 161.0 million in 2022, up 15.6 million from the 2012 level of 145.4 million.3 This growth represents a 1.0-percent annual rate of increase, which is faster than the 0.2-percent rate of increase experienced during the 2002–2012 period. The majority of the growth in employment can be attributed to an increase in the number of nonagricultural wage and salary workers, who will account for more than 98 percent of projected jobs in the upcoming period. Employment of these workers is expected to rise by 15.3 million, to reach almost 149.8 million in 2022.4 The remaining increase in employment—an increase of 527,700 jobs—is expected to come from nonagricultural self-employed and unpaid family workers, whose employment is projected to reach 9.3 million by 2022. The number of agricultural workers, which includes wage and salary workers, self-employed people, and unpaid family workers, is expected to decline by 223,500. (See table 1.)

Table 1. Employment, by major industry sector, 2002, 2012, and projected 2022
Industry sectorThousands of jobsChangePercent distributionAnnual rate of change
2002201220222002–20122012–20222002201220222002 –20122012 –2022

Total(1)

142,294.9145,355.8160,983.73,060.915,627.9100.0100.0100.00.21.0

Nonagriculture wage and salary(2)

131,028.3134,427.6149,751.33,399.315,323.792.192.593.0.31.1

Goods producing, excluding agriculture

22,486.718,360.319,554.2–4,126.41,193.915.812.612.1–2.0.6

Mining

512.3800.5921.7288.2121.2.4.6.64.61.4

Construction

6,715.75,640.97,263.0–1,074.81,622.14.73.94.5–1.72.6

Manufacturing

15,258.711,918.911,369.4–3,339.8–549.510.78.27.1–2.4–.5

Service providing

108,541.6116,067.3130,197.17,525.714,129.876.379.980.9.71.2

Utilities

596.3554.2497.8–42.1–56.4.4.4.3–.7–1.1

Wholesale trade

5,652.45,672.86,143.220.4470.44.03.93.8.0.8

Retail trade

15,025.114,875.315,966.2–149.81,090.910.610.29.9–.1.7

Transportation and warehousing

4,223.84,414.74,742.0190.9327.33.03.02.9.4.7

Information

3,394.62,677.62,612.4–717.0–65.22.41.81.6–2.3–.2

Financial activities

7,847.17,786.38,537.3–60.8751.05.55.45.3–.1.9

Professional and business services

15,976.217,930.221,413.01,954.03,482.811.212.313.31.21.8

Educational services

2,642.83,346.94,022.2704.1675.31.92.32.52.41.9

Health care and social assistance

13,555.616,971.821,965.93,416.24,994.19.511.713.62.32.6

Leisure and hospitality

11,986.013,745.815,035.01,759.81,289.28.49.59.31.4.9

Other services

6,129.06,174.56,823.445.5648.94.34.24.2.11.0

Federal government

2,766.02,814.02,406.548.0–407.51.91.91.5.2–1.6

State and local government

18,746.719,103.220,032.2356.5929.013.213.112.4.2.5

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting(3)

2,245.42,112.71,889.2–132.7–223.51.61.51.2–.6–1.1

Agriculture wage and salary

1,217.41,306.91,281.889.5–25.1.9.9.8.7–.2

Agriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers

1,028.0805.8607.4–222.2–198.4.7.6.4–2.4–2.8

Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers

9,021.28,815.59,343.2–205.7527.76.36.15.8–.2.6

Notes:
(1) Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts jobs; data for self-employed people, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting workers are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers.

(2) Includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except for data on private households, which are from the Current Population Survey. Logging workers are excluded.

(3) Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except for data on logging, which are from the Current Employment Statistics survey. Government wage and salary workers are excluded.

Source:  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections Program.

Real output is projected to increase by almost $7.0 trillion (in chain-weighted 2005 dollars),5 from $23.2 trillion in 2012 to nearly $30.2 trillion in 2022, a 2.6-percent annual growth rate. This increase is larger and faster than the increase of $2.2 trillion, an annual growth rate of 1.0 percent, seen between 2002 and 2012. The majority of output growth over the projection period is expected to come from the service-providing sectors. Between 2012 and 2022, real output in these sectors is projected to rise from $16.1 trillion to almost $21.0 trillion, a 2.6-percent-per-year rate of increase. This growth rate is faster than the 1.5-percent-per-year rate of increase seen in the 2002–2012 period. The service-providing sectors are expected to increase their share of nominal output from 68.3 percent in 2012 to 69.4 percent in 2022. This increase continues the growth trend seen in the previous decade. The goods-producing sectors, excluding agriculture, are projected to increase their real output from $5.6 trillion in 2012 to nearly $7.4 trillion in 2022, an annual rate of increase of 2.7 percent. This increase is a reversal from the 0.4-percent-per-year decline experienced in the previous decade, in which real output fell from nearly $5.9 trillion in 2002 to just above $5.6 trillion in 2012. The share of nominal output attributed to the goods-producing sectors is expected to decline from 25.4 percent in 2012 to 24.5 percent in 2022. This fall continues the declining trend seen in the previous decade. Real output in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector is expected to increase by $69.2 billion, from $307.3 billion in 2012 to $376.5 billion in 2022, a 2.1-percent-per-year rate of increase. This annual growth rate is faster than the growth rate of 1.1 percent experienced between 2002 and 2012. The share of nominal output for the agricultural sector is expected to fall from 1.5 percent in 2012 to 1.2 percent in 2022. (See table 2.)

Notes

1 The National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER) is generally recognized as the official arbiter of recessions in the United States. The NBER identified the latest recession as starting in December 2007 and ending in June 2009. For more information, visit the NBER website on the Internet at http://www.nber.org.

2 Christopher J. Goodman and Steven M. Mance, “Employment loss and the 2007–09 recession: an overview,” Monthly Labor Review, April 2011, http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2011/04/art1full.pdf.

3 Total employment is the summation of the employment figures among nonagricultural wage and salary workers; agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting workers; and self-employed and unpaid family workers. Nonagricultural wage and salary employment data are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, except for private household employment data, which are provided by the Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS also provides the data for self-employed and unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting workers.

4 Nonagricultural wage and salary employment data are from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except for private household employment data, which are from the CPS. Logging workers are excluded.

5 Throughout this article, unless otherwise noted, output refers to real output in chain-weighted 2005 dollars.

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About the Author

Richard Henderson
Henderson.Richard@bls.gov

Richard Henderson is an economist in the Division of Industry Employment Projections, Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.