Chart 2. Margins simulations and official margin index
Month PPI for gasoline margins Method-2 simulation: inflating average prices Method-1 simulation: summing regression parameters

May 2019

100.000 100.000 100.000

June 2019

126.300 103.032 103.138

July 2019

99.900 101.868 101.959

August 2019

119.600 99.213 99.402

September 2019

103.400 106.765 106.958

October 2019

104.100 104.920 105.084

November 2019

103.600 109.283 109.461

December 2019

104.100 109.554 109.765

January 2020

105.300 102.386 102.627

February 2020

109.400 103.961 104.277

March 2020

143.700 121.053 121.480

April 2020

198.400 157.737 158.391

May 2020

169.500 124.477 125.198

June 2020

147.800 110.699 111.296

July 2020

142.300 108.888 109.408

August 2020

135.900 110.237 110.754

September 2020

141.800 114.524 115.021

October 2020

145.400 110.532 111.064

November 2020

141.900 109.385 109.965

December 2020

128.200 102.988 103.523

January 2021

131.900 100.033 100.455

February 2021

126.400 102.909 103.197

March 2021

125.600 102.785 102.841

April 2021

135.800 104.894 104.902

May 2021

126.500 105.255 105.168

June 2021

130.500 106.676 106.534

July 2021

132.859 98.031 97.847

August 2021

140.130 106.503 106.286

September 2021

149.945 105.316 105.093

October 2021

137.759 102.553 102.244

November 2021

153.323 110.700 110.304

December 2021

171.552 126.872 126.501

January 2022

150.493 110.904 110.563

February 2022

155.581 97.955 97.500

March 2022

203.203 121.821 120.778

April 2022

213.106 122.940 121.928

May 2022

162.980 110.848 109.605

June 2022

160.556 105.308 103.728

July 2022

180.845 134.272 132.932

August 2022

205.688 132.255 131.352

September 2022

185.786 122.156 121.449

October 2023

187.620 121.239 120.442

November 2023

192.961 133.562 132.853

December 2023

220.872 135.344 134.997

January 2023

188.014 116.995 116.602

February 2023

183.308 108.881 108.460

March 2023

155.761 109.964 109.515

April 2023

156.363 107.525 106.939

May 2023

177.139 125.960 125.378

Note: PPI = Producer Price Index.

Source: Author's calculations based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Energy Information Administration.