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Winter 2013–14 Vol. 57, Number 4

Industry employment


This section illustrates projected employment change for industries over the 2012–22 decade. Workers are grouped into an industry according to the type of good produced or service provided by the establishment for which they work. For example, all the workers on a construction company's payroll are part of the construction industry, regardless of their specific job duties. The construction industry includes not only construction workers, but others—such as office managers and truck drivers—who perform tasks in an administrative or support role.

Industry employment projections are shown in terms of numeric change (growth or decline in the total number of jobs) and percent change (the rate of job growth or decline) over the 2012–22 decade.

Employment growth for all wage and salary workers is projected to average about 11 percent between 2012 and 2022. This average growth rate is shown as a dotted vertical line in the second and fourth charts below.

Job growth or decline in some industries can affect a particular occupation significantly. The number of jobs for computer programmers, for example, is highly dependent on growth of the software industry. However, many occupations—such as accountants, customer service representatives, and human resources specialists—are in nearly every industry.

Employment growth in industries depends on industry output (the total amount produced) and worker productivity (how much each worker produces). Labor-saving technologies and methods can improve productivity but limit employment growth even as output increases. For example, output in the travel arrangement and reservation services industry is projected to increase, but employment is projected to decline. Technological advancements, such as online reservation systems, are likely to reduce the number of workers needed to offer travel services.

Industries shown in the charts are defined primarily according to the 2007 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which the federal government uses to sort establishments into industry categories.

In most of the charts, industries are categorized into one of two groups: goods producing or service providing. Service-providing industries are projected to account for the most job growth between 2012 and 2022, adding about 14.1 million jobs. In goods-producing industries, employment is projected to stay about the same, adding about 1.2 million jobs over the decade. Examples of establishments for these industries are in the table below:

Industry sectors analyzed for the 2012—22 projections, with examples of establishments

Industry sector

Examples

Goods-producing industries

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting

Soybean farming, beef cattle ranching and farming, logging

Construction

Residential building construction, land subdivision, roofing contractors

Manufacturing

Flour milling, breweries, footwear manufacturing

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction

Natural gas liquid extraction, coal mining, stone mining and quarrying

Service-providing industries

Educational services (private)

Elementary and secondary schools, flight training, fine arts schools

Federal government

Postal service, federal electric utilities, federal defense government compensation

Financial activities

Commercial banking, consumer lending, insurance agencies and brokerages

Health care and social assistance

Home health care services, nursing and residential care facilities, child day care services

Information

Newspaper publishers, sound recording studios, television broadcasting

Leisure and hospitality

Bed-and-breakfast inns, spectator sports, amusement and theme parks

Other services

Car washes, barber shops, parking lots and garages

Professional and business services

Computer systems design and related services, office administrative services, employment services

Retail trade

Furniture stores, meat markets, electronic shopping

State and local government

Local government passenger transit, state government enterprises, state and local government capital services

Transportation and warehousing

Urban transit systems, taxi services, marine cargo handling

Utilities

Electric power generation, natural gas distribution, sewage treatment facilities

Wholesale trade

Office equipment, industrial supplies, confectionary merchant wholesalers


Percent distribution of employment by major industry sector, 2012

The percent distribution of employment is each industry sector's share of total employment in 2012. Four industry sectors—healthcare and social assistance, professional and business services, state and local government, and retail trade—accounted for nearly half of all employment.

 

Percent change in employment of wage and salary workers by industry sector, projected 2012–22

This chart shows the rate at which jobs are expected to be added or lost over the 2012–22 decade in each major industry sector. The health care and social assistance sector and the construction sector are projected to continue growing more than twice as fast as the average for all industries. In construction, projected rapid employment growth represents the continued recovery of significant job losses that occurred during the 2007–09 recession.

 

Numeric change in employment of wage and salary workers by industry sector, projected 2012–22, in thousands of jobs

This chart shows how many jobs are expected to be gained or lost between 2012 and 2022 in each major industry sector. Employment growth is projected in health care and social assistance because of advances in medicine and technology that allow people to live longer and to seek treatment for diseases.

 

Percent growth in employment of wage and salary workers by detailed industry, projected 2012–22

This chart shows how fast industries are expected to add jobs over the 2012–22 decade. Many of these industries are related to health care. Employment in professional and business services sectors also is projected to grow quickly due to an increased use of complex technologies—and a need for workers who understand those technologies.

 

Numeric growth in employment of wage and salary workers by detailed industry, projected 2012–22, in thousands of jobs

These industries are projected to add the most new jobs between 2012 and 2022. Industries that are projected to have large numeric growth usually already have the highest levels of employment. All of the projected growth in construction is to regain jobs that were lost during the 2007–09 recession, but these 1.6 million jobs are still not expected to be enough to return construction employment to its prerecession level. Five other industries projected to gain the most jobs are related to health care.

 

Numeric decline in employment of workers by detailed industry, projected 2012–22, in thousands of jobs

These industries are projected to have the largest declines in the number of jobs between 2012 and 2022. Nearly half are manufacturing industries, which together are projected to lose more than 400,000 jobs. A decline in industry employment is usually the result of falling demand for specific goods and services, increased imports that reduce domestic production, or the use of technology that improves worker productivity. Even with decreases in employment, however, some openings are expected because of the need to replace workers who leave the industry permanently

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Last Updated: December 16, 2013