Assessing projections of management jobs
June 16, 1999
The accuracy of BLS employment projections of executives and managers has fluctuated over the years. For some periods, the projections were quite close and in others, they were off by a fairly wide margin.
The projections of executive and managerial employment growth were generally accurate in three of the five periods shown in the chart: 1960-70, 1960-75, and 1980-90. The 1960-75 employment projection was almost equal to actual growth. In all three of these cases, actual employment growth was beneath projected growth.
The actual growth rate of employment of executives and managers was far above the projected rate in 1968-80 and 1984-95. The biggest discrepancy was in the 1968-80 period, in which actual employment growth (43 percent) was almost twice as high as projected growth (22 percent). While not as large, the difference between projected and actual growth was also broad in 1984-95, at 13 percentage points.
Data on projections are produced by the BLS Employment Projections program. Find more information on the accuracy of employment projections in "The quality of BLS projections: a historical account," Monthly Labor Review, May 1999.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Economics Daily, Assessing projections of management jobs on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/1999/jun/wk3/art03.htm (visited April 25, 2015).
Recent editions of Spotlight on Statistics
New estimates of personal taxes in Consumer Expenditure Survey
In 2013, the Consumer Expenditure Survey improved its personal tax data.
Trends in long-term unemployment
Long-term unemployment reached historically high levels following the recession of 2007–2009.
Housing: before, during, and after the Great Recession
looks at consumer expenditures on household items, employment in residential construction, prices for household items, and injuries in occupations involved in building and maintaining our homes.