ASA/NSF/BLS Fellowship Possible Research Topics

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    General Information

    BLS is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics. We are responsible for the development and publication of data on employment and unemployment, prices and living conditions, compensation and working conditions, productivity measurement, and economic growth and employment projections.

    Fellows have a unique opportunity to make major advances in methodology and applications in a number of areas. Some sample topics are listed below. However, applicants are encouraged to propose studies in any socioeconomic or methodological areas that are applicable to BLS data or have the potential of encouraging further significant broad-based research.

    See the main Fellowship page for more information on applying.

    Statistical Methodology and Computing

    Proposals in this area should be for research projects generally applicable to the collection, processing, or analysis of BLS data.

    Time-Use

    In January 2003, BLS launched the American Time Use Survey, a nationwide, computer-assisted telephone survey designed to collect detailed information about how respondents spend their time. This survey provides an opportunity for methodologists to propose reliability and validity studies. The data also provide a rich source of information useful for economic, psychological, and sociological research. Studies that could be conducted might include, but are not limited to:

    • Analysisand valuation of unpaid work to provide a more comprehensive picture of aggregate economic output, consumption, growth, productivity, and technological change
    • Comparisons of time spent in paid work activities reported through the time diary and other labor-force surveys
    • Examinations of the amount of time spent waiting for various services and possible effects on costs; assessments of the quality of American life
    • Re-analysis of poverty to include details about home production and leisure activities
    • Modeling the trade-off between consumer goods and time
    • Analyses of time spent in caregiving of household members.

    Computer-Assisted Interviewing

    BLS develops and uses computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) and computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) in a number of surveys. These collection methodologies afford the opportunity to conduct research on nonsampling error sources, including the measurement and control of response bias and variance, interviewer variability, and the identification of problems with survey concepts (specification error). Continued research is needed to improve the use of CATI and CAPI for reducing sources of nonsampling error.

    Statistical Quality Control

    BLS is continuing to strengthen our quality control program. Of special interest is the development of additional techniques for assessing the quality of data obtained from establishment surveys. Some areas for research include:

    • Integrated overall error models, with provisions for estimating magnitudes and interrelationships of various error sources
    • Methods of adapting evolutionary operations techniques to BLS operations
    • Effective patterns of quality control feedback, training, and incentives applicable to establishment surveys
    • The redesign of management information systems to incorporate process performance and data quality monitors
    • Development and measurement of proxy variables for estimating components of nonsampling error

    Item Imputation

    Diversity in the types of BLS surveys provides a wide variety of missing-data problems. Some examples are:

    • Longitudinal imputation techniques for establishment surveys where units remain in the sample for 4 to 5 years
    • Multivariate imputation techniques for surveys like the Consumer Expenditure Survey, which collects data on all sources of income and all types of expenditures
    • Multiple imputation techniques for computing employment and wages on the BLS data file of establishments.

    Expert Systems for Data Access and Use

    For many BLS surveys, staff review data collected each month or quarter for period-to-period comparability. Development of expert systems using artificial intelligence techniques should reduce the error and improve the knowledge base associated with this review. Research is needed to assess how BLS could use and implement artificial intelligence techniques.

    Information Dissemination

    BLS provides public access to micro-, macro-, and metadata via the Internet. Research is needed on:

    • How to incorporate expertise on the use of statistical information into an on-line public access system
    • Tools that facilitate data analysis
    • Interface design

    Statistical Graphics and Data Visualization

    BLS publishes large volumes of economic data on employment, wages, and prices. Research is needed on improved ways of graphically presenting cross-sectional and time series data that are normally published in tables. We are also interested in research on tools that allows users to do interactive analyses through bls.gov and the BLS Intranet.

    Small Domain Estimation

    Demand is continuously growing in survey programs for estimates for domains where the corresponding sample size is insufficient to produce standard design-based estimates of sufficient accuracy. Consequently, model-based or model-assisted estimators are needed. BLS programs such as the National Compensation Survey program are interested in producing small domain estimates.

    Time Series Methods

    Recent years have seen broad advances in the field of time series modeling, but BLS is interested in further development of these methods and their application. BLS has a broad array of monthly and quarterly time series for study and testing. Topics of particular interest include:

    • Application of model-based seasonal adjustment methods
    • Estimation of standard errors for seasonally adjusted estimates, particularly from complex surveys
    • Treatment of outliers in time series modeling and seasonal adjustment
    • Multivariate time series modeling
    • Survey estimation incorporating time series methods

    Statistical Methods for Data Analysis

    Inference based upon data from complex sample surveys is a broad area of research. Examples are:

    • Hypothesis testing between mean vectors of nonnormally distributed variables
    • Analysis of truncated distributions and mixture distributions
    • Analysis of longitudinally linked data sets from continuing surveys
    • Graphical analysis techniques

    Disclosure Limitation / Confidentiality Protection

    BLS is also interested in a wide range methods for disclosure limitation/confidentiality protection. Examples include:

    • Added-noise or cell-suppression approaches to tabular data releases
    • Masking of microdata in public-use datasets
    • Construction of partially or fully synthetic datasets
    • General evaluation of the balance between disclosure risk and data utility in disclosure-limitation settings

    Economic Measurement and Research

    Proposals under this topic would include theoretical or empirical studies designed to improve BLS statistical programs. Research could focus on defining and refining the concepts to be measured or could analyze a variety of topics relating to labor markets, prices, and productivity.

    Measurement of Labor Force Characteristics

    Accuracy in measuring unemployment depends upon the ability to make meaningful distinctions between the various labor force concepts, particularly between unemployment and "not in the labor force." Areas of possible research include:

    • The measurement of flows between labor force categories and longitudinal uses of existing microdata sources
    • The adjustment of flows for rotation group effects and classification error.
    • Topics related to the comparative labor market situation of various groups of workers at a point in time or over time

    Output Definition

    The need to define output arises in the development of BLS data on producer prices (the unit of output to be priced must be specified) and on productivity (labor productivity is defined as output per employee hour). Although there is some difficulty in defining output for goods-producing industries, the problems of defining output for many of the service-producing industries are particularly complex.

    Incidence of Injuries and Illnesses

    The BLS Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses (SOII) measures the incidence of OSHA-recordable injuries and illnesses via an establishment survey. Recent research indicates that the survey may undercount the total number of workplace injuries and illnesses. This conclusion is based on matching SOII microdata to other case data (particularly workers’ compensation data) and applying capture-recapture analysis. Research in this area might explore issues in matching data sets and the application of capture-recapture analysis to non-independent data sets. Alternatively, research might explore, by means of employer or employee interviews, factors that influence the reporting of OSHA-recordable cases and workers’ compensation claims.

    Measurement and Analysis of Labor Cost

    A number of BLS establishment surveys collect data on wages and other employee compensation. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures the rate of change in total compensation, which includes wages, salaries, and employers' cost of employee benefits. However, additional research is needed to develop strategies on how to best measure and report the impact on labor cost from transitory changes in compensation policy. For example, in recessions, employers take temporary measures such as furloughs and suspension of employer retirement contributions to reduce labor costs. Another possible topic is identifying the measurement framework that is most appropriate for lumpy employment costs such as year-end bonuses.

    Productivity Research

    Productivity-related research includes:

    • Factors affecting productivity change, such as investments in research and development, and in the education and experience of the workforce
    • Issues affecting the measurement of productivity
    • Modeling and estimating the effects of relative price changes on the measurement of capital input
    • Industry studies to explain productivity growth
    • Cross-industry comparisons of productivity growth
    • International comparisons of productivity growth.

    Price Measurement

    A number of long-standing problems in price measurement would be suitable topics for research. They include:

    • Inter-area comparisons of prices
    • Treatment of new outlets
    • Treatment of style and quality changes
    • Measurement of prices for the consumption of services derived from consumer durables
    • An in-depth analysis of measurement problems and potential biases for a specific component of the index (e.g. medical services or consumer electronics)

    Behavioral Sciences

    Application of Behavioral Sciences to Survey Design

    In recent years, behavioral science has been increasingly applied toward understanding psychological, sociological, and anthropological factors in the survey data collection process. For example, respondent motivation, comprehension, retrieval, and response processes have all been found to affect the quality of survey data. Research could be conducted in a field setting or utilizing the BLS Behavioral Science Research Laboratory which includes a fully equipped usability lab as well as general purpose research and observation rooms, audio and video recording capabilities, and facilities for running computer-administered experiments.

    Research topics relevant to BLS might include:

    • Respondent-interviewerinteraction
    • Autobiographical memory and everyday cognition
    • Research on human-computer interaction, along with accessibility and Section 508 compliance, related to data collection, analysis, and dissemination.

     

    Last Modified Date: August 8, 2011