Overview
Program DescriptionIn brief, The Current Employment
Statistics (CES) Survey is a monthly survey of business
establishments which provides estimates of employment, hours, and
earnings data by industry for the nation as a whole, all States, and
most major metropolitan areas since 1939. This section focuses on
the State and Area data. The CES survey is a Federal-State
cooperative endeavor in which State employment security agencies
prepare the data using concepts, definitions, and technical
procedures prescribed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Technical Note on CES Employment
Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on
establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay
period which includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at
their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those
appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll.
Establishments are classified in an industry on the basis of their
principal product or activity in accordance with the most recent
North American Industry Classification System Manual.
Method of estimation. The employment data are
estimated using a "link relative" technique in which a ratio (link
relative) of current-month employment to that of the previous month
is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both
months. The estimates of employment for the current month are
obtained by multiplying the estimates for the previous month by
these ratios.
Annual revisions. Employment estimates are
adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks,
derived principally from tax reports which are submitted by
employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI)
laws. The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly
estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and also
to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month.
Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment,
and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the
level for the subsequent months.
Seasonal adjustment. Seasonally adjusted payroll
employment totals for states are computed by aggregating
independently adjusted series for supersectors. Revisions of
historical data for the most recent 5 years are made once a year,
coincident with annual benchmark adjustments.
Caution on aggregating state data. State
estimation procedures are designed to produce accurate data for each
individual state. BLS independently develops a national employment
series; state estimates are not forced to sum to national totals nor
vice versa. Because each state series is subject to larger sampling
and nonsampling errors than the national series, summing them
cumulates individual state level errors and can cause significant
distortions at an aggregate level. Due to these statistical
limitations, BLS does not compile a "sum-of-states" employment
series, and cautions users that such a series is subject to a
relatively large and volatile error structure.
Reliability of the estimates
All estimates from a sample survey are subject to sampling and
other types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling
variability--that is, variation that occurs by chance because a
sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data
are also subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be
introduced into the data collection and processing operations.
Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys are subject to
additional errors resulting from the special estimation processes
used. The sums of individual items may not always equal the totals
shown in the same tables because of rounding.
Employment estimates. Standard errors associated
with 1-, 3-, and 12-month changes in employment for Statewide
supersectors and for total nonfarm at the MSA level can be found at
www.bls.gov/sae/790stderr.htm.
Information on recent benchmark revisions for states is available
upon request.
Additional Information. More complete information
on the technical procedures used to develop these estimates and
additional data appear in the BLS Handbook of Methods,
Chapter 2 and Employment and Earnings, which is
available by subscription for $53.00 a year from the Superintendent
of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402
(telephone 202-783-3238). Estimates of labor force, employment, and
unemployment estimates for all states, metropolitan areas, labor
market areas, counties, cities with a population of 25,000 or more,
and other areas used in the administration of various Federal
economic assistance programs are provided in the report,
Unemployment in States and Local Areas, which is available
monthly in microfiche form by subscription from the U.S. Government
Printing Office for $23.00 a year. The order number for a
subscription is 029-001-81003-2. Information in this release will be
made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice
phone: 202-691-5200; The Federal Relay Service: 1-800-877-8339.
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Data Uses
CES estimates are among the earliest economic information
available to analyze current economic conditions. Because of this,
CES estimates are heavily used in both the private and public
sector. Below is a short list of some of the uses for CES estimates:
Private Sector
- To guide decisions on plant location, sales, and purchases;
- To compare your business and the industry or economy as a
whole;
- To negotiate labor contracts based upon industry or area
hourly earnings and weekly hours series;
- To determine the employment base of States and areas for bond
ratings;
- To detect and plan for swings in the business cycle using the
average weekly hours series;
Public Sector
- To evaluate the economic health of State and areas;
- To guide monetary policy decisions;
- To assess the growth of industries;
- To forecast tax revenue for States and areas;
- To measure employment, hours, and earnings as a means of
determining growth in the economy;
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Related Research
Shipp, Kenneth W. and David M. Talan, Geographic Estimates from
the Current Employment Statistics Survey, 41st Regional Science
Association International Meetings, Niagara Falls, Canada, November
1994.
Scott, Stuart, George Stamas, Thomas J. Sullivan, and Paul
Chester, Seasonal
Adjustment of Hybrid Economic Time Series, American Statistical
Association, Toronto, Canada, August 1994.
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Metropolitan Area Concepts and Standards
The accompanying lists present the titles and components of
official metropolitan areas (MAs). The U.S. Office of Management and
Budget defines MAs according to published standards that are applied
to Census Bureau data.
The first list concerns areas designated by the OMB as metropolitan
statistical areas (MSAs) and metropolitan divisions (MDs). A
second list presents information for metropolitan New England city and town
areas and divisions (metropolitan NECTAs and NECTA divisions, respectively).
The general concept of an MA is that of a core area containing a
large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having
a high degree of economic and social integration with that core.
Currently defined MAs are based on application of 2000 standards
(which appeared in the Federal Register on December 27, 2000) to 2000
decennial census data. These MA definitions were announced by OMB
effective June 6, 2003.
Standard definitions of metropolitan areas were first issued in 1949
by the then Bureau of the Budget (predecessor of OMB), under the
designation "standard metropolitan area" (SMA). The term was changed to
"standard metropolitan statistical area" (SMSA) in 1959, and to
"metropolitan statistical area" (MSA) in 1983. The term "metropolitan area"
(MA) was adopted in 1990 and referred collectively to metropolitan
statistical areas (MSAs), consolidated metropolitan statistical areas
(CMSAs), and primary metropolitan statistical areas (PMSAs). The term
"core based statistical area" (CBSA) became effective in 2000 and refers
collectively to metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas. (Note:
The CES program does not produce estimates for micropolitan statistical areas.)
The standards for defining metropolitan areas were modified in 1958,
1971, 1975, 1980, 1990, and 2000.
Defining Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas.
The current standards provide that each CBSA must include at least one
urban area of 10,000 or more population. Each metropolitan statistical
area must have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more inhabitants.
Each micropolitan statistical area must have at least one urban cluster
of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000 population.
Under the standards, the county (or counties) in which at least 50 percent
of the population resides within urban areas of 10,000 or more population,
or that contain at least 5,000 people residing within a single urban area of
10,000 or more population, is identified as a "central county" (counties).
Additional "outlying counties" are included in the CBSA if they meet specified
requirements of commuting to or from the central counties. Counties or
equivalent entities form the geographic "building blocks" for metropolitan
and micropolitan statistical areas throughout the United States and Puerto
Rico. In New England, the CBSAs are defined in terms of cities and
towns rather than counties.
If specified criteria are met, a metropolitan statistical area containing
a single core with a population of 2.5 million or more may be subdivided to
form smaller groupings of counties referred to as "metropolitan divisions."
As of June 6, 2000, there are 362 metropolitan statistical areas and 560
micropolitan statistical areas in the United States. In addition, there are 8
metropolitan statistical areas and 5 micropolitan statistical areas in Puerto Rico.
Principal Cities and Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Area Titles.
The largest city in each metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area is
designated a "principal city." Additional cities qualify if specified
requirements are met concerning population size and employment. The title of
each metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area consists of the names of
up to three of its principal cities and the name of each state into which the
metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area extends. Titles of metropolitan
divisions also typically are based on principal city names but in certain cases
consist of county names.
Defining New England City and Town Areas. In view of the importance
of cities and towns in New England, the 2000 standards also provide for a set
of geographic areas that are defined using cities and towns in the six New
England states. The New England city and town areas (NECTAs) are defined using
the same criteria as metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas and are
identified as either metropolitan or micropolitan, based, respectively, on the
presence of either an urbanized area of 50,000 or more population or an urban
cluster of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000 population. If the specified
criteria are met, a NECTA containing a single core with a population of at least
2.5 million may be subdivided to form smaller groupings of cities and towns
referred to as New England city and town area (NECTA) divisions.
A 2000 census list, PHC-T-29, showing
2000 and 1990 populations for current CBSAs and their component counties
or New England subcounty areas is available online at the Census Bureau website, or a hard copy
can be obtained through the Population Distribution Branch at (301) 763-2419. A June 2004
General Accounting Office (GAO) report on the 2000 Metropolitan Statistical
Area standards and their impact on selected Federal programs is available online
at www.gao.gov/new.items/d04758.pdf
. (Note: you need Adobe Acrobat Reader® to view this document. It
can be downloaded for free at the Adobe® website.)
Also available on the Census Bureau's website is a
wall map for the 2003 metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas.
Changes in Definitions over Time. Changes in the definitions
of these statistical areas since the 1950 census have consisted chiefly of:
- the recognition of new areas as they reached the minimum required
city or urbanized area population, and
- the addition of counties (or cities and towns in New England) to
existing areas as new decennial census data showed them to qualify.
In some instances, formerly separate areas have been merged, components
of an area have been transferred from one area to another, or components
have been dropped from an area. The large majority of changes have taken
place on the basis of decennial census data. However, Census Bureau data
serve as the basis for intercensal updates in specified circumstances.
Because of these historical changes in geographic definitions, users
must be cautious in comparing data for these statistical areas from
different dates. For some purposes, comparisons of data for areas as
defined at given dates may be appropriate; for other purposes, it may be
preferable to maintain consistent area definitions. Historical metropolitan
area definitions are available for 1999, 1993, 1990, 1983, 1981, 1973, 1970,
1963, 1960, and 1950.
- Metropolitan
Areas and Standards
- This list contains information on areas designated by the OMB
as metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and metropolitan divisions.
- New England
Metropolitan Areas and Standards
- This list contains information on areas designated by the OMB
for metropolitan New England city and town areas (NECTAs)
and divisions (NECTA divisions).
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Last Modified Date: June 07, 2007
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