EP Frequently Asked Questions
Does BLS project future labor shortages or surpluses?
No. The BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, i.e., one where overall labor supply meets labor demand
except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection methodology,
see chapter 13 of the BLS Handbook of Methods (PDF).
Furthermore, attempts to ascribe shortages or surpluses to BLS projections are based on an incorrect comparison of the total employment and total labor force projections, two separate and fundamentally different measures. The total employment projection is a count of jobs and the labor force projection is a count of individuals. Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. For a discussion of labor shortages in the context of long-term projection models, see page 10 of "Employment projections to 2012: concepts and context," by Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly Labor Review.
How often are the projections updated and where are they
The economic, employment, and labor force projections are updated every other year; the most recent projections are for 2016–26 and were released on the BLS web site on October 24, 2017. The projections also are published in the Monthly Labor Review at the same time as the release.
What is the time horizon for BLS projections?
The projections have a 10 year span. The current projections cover the 2016–26 decade.
Does BLS prepare short-term projections?
No, BLS only prepares 10-year projections. Most states prepare both long- and short-term projections for their state and local areas.
State projections are available from http://www.projectionscentral.com.
What are the fastest growing occupations?
The fastest growing occupations can be found in this table and reflect jobs with the largest rate of change, in terms of percentage.
What are the occupations adding the most jobs?
The occupations adding the largest number of jobs can be found in this table.
What are the fastest growing industries?
The industries with the fastest growth rate can be found in this table and rank the industries with jobs experiencing
the largest rate of change, in terms of percentage.
Are there annual projections or just data for the terminal year?
The projections are available only for 2026.
Do you have projections for states or local areas?
BLS prepares projections only for the nation as a whole.
Projections of industry and occupational employment are prepared by each state,
using input from the BLS National projections. Contact information for State labor market information offices is available at http://www.bls.gov/bls/ofolist.htm.
Do you have employment data and projections from earlier years?
Employment projections from previous years are available in projections issues of the Monthly Labor Review and in archived news releases. Data files for a limited number of previous projections are available on request. Projections for previous periods are not always comparable to the 2016–26 projections, however, because of changes in industry and occupational classifications, historical data revision, and changes in projections procedures.
Why are there differences between estimated employment in a particular occupation in
the Employment Projections data and estimated employment in that same occupation from surveys such as the
Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey or the Current Population Survey (CPS)?
The historical data in the Employment Projections program’s National Employment Matrix combines employment data from several different sources. Data on industries comes primarily from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. This employment is distributed to occupations using staffing patterns from the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey. In addition, the matrix incorporates data for industries not covered by CES and OES – agriculture and private households – from the Current Population Survey (CPS), as well as employment data for self-employed workers. A more detailed description of data sources is available at http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_projections_methods.htm.
How accurate are BLS projections?
BLS evaluates its projections regularly and publishes these evaluations in the Monthly Labor Review.
How do the BLS employment projections account for recessions?
The analysis underlying the BLS employment projections focuses on long-term structural change and growth and assumes a full employment economy in the
target year. To the extent that recessions can cause long-term structural change, they may impact the projections. However, BLS does not project recessions.
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Last Modified Date: October 24, 2017