Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections

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Table 4.1 Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1996, 2006, 2016, and projected 2026

Exogenous variables

Billions of chained 2009 dollars
(unless noted)

Annual rate of change

1996

2006

2016

2026

1996–06

2006–16

2016–26

Monetary policy-related:

Federal funds rate (percent)

5.3

5.0

0.4

3.3

-0.6

-22.4

23.8

Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent)

5.1

4.8

0.3

3.1

-0.6

-23.8

25.4

Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent)

6.4

4.8

1.8

4.4

-2.9

-9.1

9.0

 

Fiscal policy, tax-related:

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent)

22.5

21.4

23.2

23.2

-0.5

0.8

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent)

24.3

23.0

25.0

25.0

-0.6

0.8

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent)

27.8

22.5

28.0

28.0

-2.1

2.2

0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent)

25.7

15.0

20.0

20.0

-5.2

2.9

0.0

Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent)

39.1

37.7

37.3

36.9

-0.4

-0.1

-0.1

 

Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related:

Defense Intermediate goods and services purchased

124.8

218.0

195.2

165.8

5.7

-1.1

-1.6

Defense gross investment

96.2

147.9

135.1

156.7

4.4

-0.9

1.5

Nondefense Intermediate goods and services purchased

46.5

92.9

106.4

109.1

7.2

1.4

0.3

Nondefense gross investment

74.7

99.6

113.4

118.5

2.9

1.3

0.4

Federal grants-in-aid, medicaid and other (billions of current dollars)

181.4

340.8

555.5

833.0

6.5

5.0

4.1

Federal transfer payments, medicare (billions of current dollars)

194.9

399.2

655.8

1179.4

7.4

5.1

6.0

 

Energy-related:

Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

22.2

66.1

43.2

82.4

11.6

-4.2

6.7

Price of Brent Crude Oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

20.6

65.1

43.5

88.5

12.2

-3.9

7.4

Price of Natural Gas (nominal dollars per mil. BTUs)

2.0

6.1

2.1

4.6

11.9

-10.2

8.3

Domestic oil product (billions of barrels)

2.4

1.9

3.2

3.7

-2.4

5.8

1.3

 

Demographic-related:

Total population including overseas Armed Forces (in millions)

269.8

298.7

323.5

350.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

Population aged 16 and over (in millions)

200.6

228.8

253.5

278.2

1.3

1.0

0.9

Source: Historical data: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information Administration, Bureau of Census; Projected data: Employment Projections program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Census Bureau.

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Last Modified Date: October 24, 2017