Internet: http://www.bls.gov/emp USDL 05-2276 Technical Information: (202) 691-5700 For release: 10 A.M. EST Media Contact: (202) 691-5902 Wednesday, December 7, 2005 BLS RELEASES 2004-14 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS (NOTE: Table 1 of the text version of this news release was corrected online on Wednesday, November 7, 2007. The PDF and print versions were correct as originally issued.) The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, today released projections on future job growth by industry and occupation and on the likely composition of the workforce pursuing those jobs. The 10-year projections-covering the 2004-14 decade-of economic growth, employment by industry and occupation, and labor force are widely used in career guidance, in planning education and training programs, and in studying long- range employment trends. These projections, which are updated every 2 years, continue a nearly 60-year tradition of providing advice to individuals who are entering the job market, changing careers, or making further education and training choices. Employment Over the 2004-14 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 18.9 million jobs, or 13 percent. Over the previous decade (1994-2004), total employment grew at the same annual rate and increased by 16.4 million jobs. Industry employment * Employment growth will continue to be concentrated in the service-providing sector of the economy. Educational services, health care and social assistance, and professional and business services represent the industry sectors with the strongest employment growth; these sectors are projected to grow more than twice as fast as the overall economy. (See table 1.) * Construction employment is projected to grow, but at a slower pace than during the previous decade (1994-2004). Manufacturing employment, however, is expected to decline by 5 percent, much less than the 16 percent decline that occurred in the previous decade. Nonetheless, employment in goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from 15 percent to 13 percent of total employment. * The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, led by employment services, local government education, and offices of physicians, are in the service-providing sector. (See table 3a.) * Eight out of the 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines, including cut and sew apparel manufacturing, are in the manufacturing sector. (See table 3b.) Occupational employment * Professional and related occupations and service occupations-two groups on opposite ends of the educational and earnings ranges-are projected to add the most jobs, accounting for 6 out of 10 new jobs created over the 2004-14 period. (See table 2.) * Business and financial operations occupations, professional and related occupations, and service occupations are projected to grow faster than the 13 percent average for all occupations. * Production occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are projected to lose employment over the period. * Nine of the 10 fastest growing occupations are health or computer (information technology) occupations. (See table 3c.) * Five of the 10 occupations adding the most jobs are service occupations. (See table 3d.) Education and training categories * An associate or bachelor's degree is the most significant source of postsecondary education or training for 6 of the 10 fastest growing occupations. (See table 3c.) * Short-term on-the-job training is the most significant source of postsecondary education or training for 5 of the 10 occupations with the largest job growth. (See table 3d.) Labor force * The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 14.7 million over the 2004-14 decade, reaching 162.1 million by 2014. This 10 percent increase is less than the 12.5-percent increase over the previous decade, 1994-2004, when the labor force grew by 16.3 million. (See table 4.) The labor force will change in composition, as a result of changes in both the composition of the population and in the rates of labor force participation across demographic groups. * The projected labor force growth will be affected by the aging of the baby- boom generation-persons born between 1946 and 1964. In 2014, baby-boomers will be ages 50 to 68 years, and this age group will grow significantly over the 2004-14 period. The labor force will continue to age, with the number of workers in the 55-and-older group projected to grow by 49.1 percent, nearly 5 times the 10 percent growth projected for the overall labor force. Youths- those between the ages of 16 and 24-will decline in numbers and lose share of the labor force, from 15.1 percent in 2004 to 13.7 percent in 2014. Prime-age workers-those between the ages of 25 and 54-also will lose share of the labor force, from 69.3 percent in 2004 to 65.2 percent in 2014. The 55-and-older age group, on the other hand, is projected to gain share of the labor force, from 15.6 percent to 21.2 percent. * Over the 2004-14 projection period, the number of women in the labor force is projected to grow by 10.9 percent, faster than the 9.1-percent growth projected for men. As a result, women's share of the labor force is expected to increase from 46.4 percent in 2004 to 46.8 percent by 2014. In contrast, men's share is projected to decline from 53.6 percent to 53.2 percent over the decade. * By 2014, the Hispanic labor force is expected to reach 25.8 million, due to faster population growth resulting from a younger population, higher fertility rates, and increased immigration levels. Despite relatively slow growth, whites will remain the largest group, composing 80.2 percent of the labor force. Blacks will constitute 12.0 percent of the labor force. Asians will continue to be the fastest growing race group, climbing to 5.1 percent of the labor force in 2014. A note on labor shortages in the context of long-term economic projections The measures upon which the employment projections and labor force projections are based are different. The former is a count of jobs and the latter a count of individuals. Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, i.e., one where labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection methodology, see "A summary of BLS projections to 2014," Norman C. Saunders, November 2005 Monthly Labor Review. For a discussion of labor shortages in the context of long-term projection models, see "Employment projections to 2012: concepts and context," Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly Labor Review. Notes More detailed information on the 2004-14 projections appears in five articles in the November 2005 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. The Review is available online at: www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the forthcoming Winter 2005-06 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. The Quarterly is available online at: www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm. The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The Review costs $49 a year; single copies are $15. The Quarterly costs $15 a year; single copies are $6. For additional information, contact the Superintendent of Documents at: www.access.gpo.gov. Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral phone: 1-800-877-8339. Table 1. Employment by major industry division, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014 (Numbers in thousands) Average Numeric Percent Percent annual rate Employment change change distribution of change Industry sector 1994 2004 1994 2004 1994 2004 1994 2004 2014 to to to to 1994 2004 2014 to to 2004 2014 2004 2014 2004 2014 Total(1) 129,245.9 145,612.3 164,539.9 16,366.4 18,927.6 12.7 13.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.2 1.2 Nonagriculture wage and salary(2) 114,983.8 132,191.7 150,876.9 17,207.9 18,685.2 15.0 14.1 89.0 90.8 91.7 1.4 1.3 Goods-producing, excluding agriculture 22,691.6 21,817.3 21,787.3 -874.3 -30.0 -3.9 -0.1 17.6 15.0 13.2 -0.4 0.0 Mining 576.5 523.2 477.4 -53.3 -45.8 -9.2 -8.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 -1.0 -0.9 Construction 5,094.9 6,964.5 7,756.9 1,869.6 792.4 36.7 11.4 3.9 4.8 4.7 3.2 1.1 Manufacturing 17,020.2 14,329.6 13,553.0 -2,690.6 -776.6 -15.8 -5.4 13.2 9.8 8.2 -1.7 -0.6 Service-providing 92,292.2 110,374.4 129,089.6 18,082.2 18,715.2 19.6 17.0 71.4 75.8 78.5 1.8 1.6 Utilities 689.4 570.1 562.6 -119.3 -7.5 -17.3 -1.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 -1.9 -0.1 Wholesale trade 5,247.5 5,654.9 6,130.8 407.4 475.9 7.8 8.4 4.1 3.9 3.7 0.8 0.8 Retail trade 13,491.1 15,034.5 16,683.2 1,543.4 1,648.7 11.4 11.0 10.4 10.3 10.1 1.1 1.0 Transportation and warehousing 3,701.1 4,250.0 4,755.9 548.9 505.9 14.8 11.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 1.4 1.1 Information 2,738.6 3,138.3 3,502.1 399.7 363.8 14.6 11.6 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.4 1.1 Financial activities 6,866.9 8,051.9 8,901.3 1,185.0 849.4 17.3 10.5 5.3 5.5 5.4 1.6 1.0 Professional and business services 12,173.9 16,413.7 20,979.9 4,239.8 4,566.2 34.8 27.8 9.4 11.3 12.8 3.0 2.5 Educational services 1,894.8 2,766.4 3,664.5 871.6 898.1 46.0 32.5 1.5 1.9 2.2 3.9 2.9 Health care and social assistance 10,911.9 14,187.2 18,482.1 3,275.3 4,294.9 30.0 30.3 8.4 9.7 11.2 2.7 2.7 Leisure and hospitality 10,099.8 12,479.1 14,693.8 2,379.3 2,214.7 23.6 17.7 7.8 8.6 8.9 2.1 1.6 Other services 5,202.1 6,209.9 6,943.4 1,007.8 733.5 19.4 11.8 4.0 4.3 4.2 1.8 1.1 Federal government 3,018.0 2,727.5 2,770.9 -290.5 43.4 -9.6 1.6 2.3 1.9 1.7 -1.0 0.2 State and local government 16,257.1 18,890.9 21,019.1 2,633.8 2,128.2 16.2 11.3 12.6 13.0 12.8 1.5 1.1 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting(3) 2,890.1 2,139.9 1,910.0 -750.2 -229.9 -26.0 -10.7 2.2 1.5 1.2 -3.0 -1.1 Agriculture wage and salary 1,381.0 1,149.2 1,089.7 -231.8 -59.5 -16.8 -5.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 -1.8 -0.5 Agriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers 1,509.1 990.7 820.3 -518.4 -170.4 -34.4 -17.2 1.2 0.7 0.5 -4.1 -1.9 Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid family worker 9,360.0 9,556.4 10,011.9 196.4 455.5 2.1 4.8 7.2 6.6 6.1 0.2 0.5 Secondary wage and salary jobs in agriculture and private household industries(4) 182.0 137.6 126.8 -44.4 -10.8 -24.4 -7.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.8 -0.8 Secondary jobs as a self- employed or unpaid family worker(5) 1,830.0 1,586.7 1,614.3 -243.3 27.6 -13.3 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.0 -1.4 0.2 (1) Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers. (2) Includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except private households, which is from the Current Population Survey. Logging workers are excluded. (3) Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which is from Current Employment Statistics survey. Government wage and salary workers are excluded. (4) Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private household industries. (5) Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker. Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2004 and projected 2014 (Numbers in thousands) Employment Change Percent Occupational group Number distribution Number Percent 2004 2014 2004 2014 Total, all occupations 145,612.3 164,539.9 100.0 100.0 18,927.6 13.0 Management occupations 9,114.7 10,146.8 6.3 6.2 1,032.0 11.3 Business and financial operations occupations 5,872.8 6,995.5 4.0 4.3 1,122.7 19.1 Professional and related occupations 28,544.0 34,590.2 19.6 21.0 6,046.3 21.2 Computer and mathematical science occupations 3,152.8 4,119.8 2.2 2.5 967.0 30.7 Architecture and engineering occupations 2,519.9 2,834.7 1.7 1.7 314.8 12.5 Life, physical, and social science occupations 1,315.7 1,531.6 0.9 0.9 215.9 16.4 Community and social services occupations 2,317.1 2,800.2 1.6 1.7 483.1 20.8 Legal occupations 1,220.2 1,414.2 0.8 0.9 194.0 15.9 Education, training, and library occupations 8,698.0 10,438.0 6.0 6.3 1,740.0 20.0 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 2,515.0 2,890.3 1.7 1.8 375.3 14.9 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 6,805.3 8,561.4 4.7 5.2 1,756.1 25.8 Service occupations 27,672.6 32,929.7 19.0 20.0 5,257.2 19.0 Healthcare support occupations 3,492.3 4,656.2 2.4 2.8 1,163.9 33.3 Protective service occupations 3,137.6 3,578.0 2.2 2.2 440.3 14.0 Food preparation and serving related occupations 10,739.2 12,453.2 7.4 7.6 1,714.0 16.0 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 5,582.2 6,529.7 3.8 4.0 947.5 17.0 Personal care and service occupations 4,721.2 5,712.7 3.2 3.5 991.4 21.0 Sales and related occupations 15,330.2 16,806.4 10.5 10.2 1,476.3 9.6 Office and administrative support occupations 23,907.0 25,287.3 16.4 15.4 1,380.3 5.8 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 1,025.9 1,013.0 0.7 0.6 -12.9 -1.3 Construction and extraction occupations 7,738.5 8,669.4 5.3 5.3 930.9 12.0 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 5,747.5 6,404.5 3.9 3.9 657.0 11.4 Production occupations 10,561.7 10,483.1 7.3 6.4 -78.6 -0.7 Transportation and material moving occupations 10,097.6 11,214.0 6.9 6.8 1,116.4 11.1 NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent because of rounding. Table 3a. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2004-14(1) (Numbers in thousands) Employment Change Industry 2004 2014 Number Percent Employment services 3,470.3 5,050.2 1,579.9 45.5 Local government educational services 7,762.5 8,545.5 783.0 10.1 Local government, excluding education and hospitals 5,485.6 6,249.3 763.7 13.9 Offices of physicians 2,053.9 2,813.4 759.5 37.0 Full-service restaurants 4,226.4 4,927.8 701.4 16.6 General medical and surgical hospitals, private 4,050.9 4,699.0 648.1 16.0 Limited-service eating places 3,726.7 4,318.6 591.9 15.9 Home health care services 773.2 1,310.3 537.1 69.5 Colleges, universities, and professional schools, private 1,377.5 1,849.8 472.3 34.3 Management, scientific, and technical consulting services 779.0 1,250.2 471.2 60.5 (1) Data are from the National Employment Matrix. Table 3b. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines, 2004-14(1) (Numbers in thousands) Employment Change Industry 2004 2014 Number Percent Wired telecommunications carriers 548.4 380.1 -168.3 -30.7 Cut and sew apparel manufacturing 219.9 80.0 -139.9 -63.6 Printing and related support activities 665.0 600.1 -64.9 -9.8 Fabric mills 115.7 60.0 -55.7 -48.1 Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing 452.8 399.9 -52.9 -11.7 Crop production, primary job 530.2 482.1 -48.1 -9.1 Basic chemical manufacturing 156.1 110.0 -46.1 -29.5 Rubber product manufacturing 173.0 132.8 -40.2 -23.2 Foundries 165.4 127.8 -37.6 -22.7 Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing 212.1 175.0 -37.1 -17.5 (1) Data are from the National Employment Matrix. Table 3c. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 2004-14 (Numbers in thousands) Employment Change Occupation Most significant source of post- 2004 2014 Number Percent secondary education or training(1) Home health aides 624 974 350 56 Short-term on-the-job training Network systems and data communications analysts 231 357 126 55 Bachelor's degree Medical assistants 387 589 202 52 Moderate-term on-the-job training Physician assistants 62 93 31 50 Bachelor's degree Computer software engineers, applications 460 682 222 48 Bachelor's degree Physical therapist assistants 59 85 26 44 Associate degree Dental hygienists 158 226 68 43 Associate degree Computer software engineers, systems software 340 486 146 43 Bachelor's degree Dental assistants 267 382 114 43 Moderate-term on-the-job training Personal and home care aides 701 988 287 41 Short-term on-the-job training (1) Each occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected Occupational Data, 2002 and Projected 2012" in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2572 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2004), pp. 66-67, or in Bulletin 2602, the forthcoming 2006-07 edition of this publication. Table 3d. The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 2004-14 (Numbers in thousands) Employment Change Occupation Most significant source of post- 2004 2014 Number Percent secondary education or training(1) Retail salespersons 4,256 4,992 736 17 Short-term on-the-job training Registered nurses 2,394 3,096 703 29 Associate degree Postsecondary teachers 1,628 2,153 524 32 Doctoral degree Customer service representatives 2,063 2,534 471 23 Moderate-term on-the-job training Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 2,374 2,813 440 19 Short-term on-the-job training Waiters and waitresses 2,252 2,627 376 17 Short-term on-the-job training Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 2,150 2,516 367 17 Short-term on-the-job training Home health aides 624 974 350 56 Short-term on-the-job training Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 1,455 1,781 325 22 Postsecondary vocational award General and operations managers 1,807 2,115 308 17 Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience (1) Each occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected Occupational Data, 2002 and Projected 2012" in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2572 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2004), pp. 66-67, or in Bulletin 2602, the forthcoming 2006-07 edition of this publication. Table 4. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014 (Numbers in thousands) Change Percent Annual growth Level Number Percent distribution rate (percent) Group 1994 2004 1994 2004 1994 2004 1994 2004 2014 to to to to 1994 2004 2014 to to 2004 2014 2004 2014 2004 2014 Total, 16 years and older 142,534 144,863 162,269 14,429 17,406 11.3 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1 1.1 16 to 24 21,612 22,268 22,158 656 -110 3.0 -0.5 16.5 15.1 13.7 0.3 0.0 25 to 54 93,898 102,122 105,627 8,224 3,505 8.8 3.4 71.6 69.3 65.2 0.8 0.3 55 and older 15,546 23,011 34,315 7,465 11,304 48.0 49.1 11.9 15.6 21.2 4.0 4.1 Men 70,817 78,980 86,194 8,163 7,214 11.5 9.1 54.0 53.6 53.2 1.1 0.9 Women 60,239 68,421 75,906 8,182 7,485 13.6 10.9 46.0 46.4 46.8 1.3 1.0 White 111,082 121,086 129,936 10,004 8,850 9.0 7.3 84.8 82.1 80.2 0.9 0.7 Black 14,502 16,638 19,433 2,136 2,795 14.7 16.8 11.1 11.3 12.0 1.4 1.6 Asian(1) 5,472 6,271 8,304 799 2,033 14.6 32.4 4.2 4.3 5.1 1.4 2.8 All other groups(2) (3) 3,406 4,427 (3) 1,021 (3) 30.0 (3) 2.3 2.7 (3) 2.7 Hispanic origin 11,975 19,272 25,760 7,297 6,488 60.9 33.7 9.1 13.1 15.9 4.9 2.9 Other than Hispanic origin 119,081 128,129 136,340 9,048 8,211 7.6 6.4 90.9 86.9 84.1 0.7 0.6 White Non-Hispanic 100,462 103,202 106,373 2,740 3,171 2.7 3.1 76.7 70.0 65.6 0.3 0.3 (1) As a result of changes in the definition of the race categories in census 2000, data for 1994 represent the "Asian & other" race category with 1990 census weights. Data for 2004 and 2014 represent the "Asian only" race category with 2000 census weights. (2) The "All other groups" category includes (1) those classed as of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. (3) Data for "All other groups" are not available for 1994.