Internet address: http://stats.bls.gov/newsrels.htm Technical information: (202) 606-7391 USDL 98-253 For release: 10:00 A.M. EDT Media contact: 606-5902 Wednesday, June 24, 1998 NUMBER OF JOBS, LABOR MARKET EXPERIENCE, AND EARNINGS GROWTH: RESULTS FROM A LONGITUDINAL SURVEY The average person in the U.S. holds 8.6 different jobs from the ages of 18 to 32, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The majority of the job changes take place between the ages of 18 and 27. These findings are from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, a survey of 9,964 young men and women who were 14 to 22 years of age when first interviewed in 1979 and 31 to 39 when last interviewed in 1996. The survey provides information on work and nonwork experiences, training, schooling, income and assets, health conditions, and other characteristics. This release focuses on three aspects of labor market behavior: Number of jobs held, labor force participation, and earnings growth. Highlights from the longitudinal survey include: --The average number of jobs held while ages 18 to 22 was 4.4. The average fell to 3.3 jobs during the next 5-year age period and to 2.6 jobs from ages 28 to 32. Since jobs that span age groups were counted more than once, the overall average for ages 18 to 32 was 8.6 jobs held. --In 1991-95, men in their 30s were employed about 87 percent of the time and were out of the labor force 8 percent of the time. Women in their 30s were employed for 71 percent of the time and were out of the labor force 25 percent of the time, on average. --The likelihood of experiencing a period of unemployment decreased as education increased. For persons in their 30s who were high school dropouts, over half had at least one period of unemployment during 1991-95, but, of college graduates, only a fourth had a spell of unemployment. --Real hourly earnings grew fastest in the early ages of 18 to 22. Number of Jobs Held Young persons held an average of 8.6 jobs from ages 18 to 32, with nearly half of the job changes occurring before age 23. (See table 1.) On average, men held 8.9 jobs and women held 8.3 jobs from the ages of 18 to 32. Men held 4.5 jobs while ages 18 to 22, but only 2.8 jobs while ages 28 to 32. The reduction in the number of jobs held was similar for women. Those who eventually obtained a college degree usually held more jobs between the ages of 18 and 22 than did those who ended their formal education after high school or before. This was particularly true for - 2 - women. Women who became college graduates held 5.3 jobs while ages 18 to 22, compared with 3.9 jobs for high school graduates and 3.1 jobs for high school dropouts. The relatively larger number of jobs among those who attended college may be due to the fact that college students hold summer jobs and part-time jobs while attending school. At older ages, the number of jobs did not vary much by education, especially for men, suggesting that people tend to settle into more stable jobs at older ages. Differences in the number of jobs held also are apparent between race and ethnic groups. By age 32, whites held more jobs than either blacks or Hispanics. The differences were more pronounced at younger ages. Between the ages of 18 to 22, whites held 4.6 jobs, compared with 3.6 for blacks and 4.0 for Hispanics. These racial differences nearly disappeared at older ages. While ages 28 to 32, individuals in all three race and ethnic groups held, on average, 2.6 jobs. The number of jobs held by blacks increased substantially with education. By age 32, black college graduates had held two more jobs than black dropouts and nearly one and a half more jobs than high school graduates. The increase in jobs with education was not as pronounced for whites or Hispanics. Labor Force Activity During 1991-95 On average, individuals were employed over 79 percent of the total weeks from 1991 through 1995, were unemployed nearly 4 percent of the time, and were out of the labor force for roughly 16 percent of the time during the 5-year period. (See table 2.) Generally, men worked more weeks than women but also spent more time unemployed. Women, when not working, spent more time out of the labor force than men. From 1991 to 1995, men worked, on average, about 87 percent of the time and were unemployed about 4 percent of the time, while women worked about 71 percent of the time and were unemployed slightly more than 3 percent of the time. Women spent an average of 25.1 percent of the time out of the labor force, compared with only 7.8 percent for men. The gap in weeks worked by men and women was slightly smaller at higher educational levels. Individuals with less education spent fewer weeks employed. In 1991-95, male high school dropouts were employed roughly 75 percent of the time, nearly 12 percentage points less than men with a high school diploma and about 20 percentage points less than male college graduates. Similar and more pronounced differences by education were present for women. Interestingly, women dropouts spent nearly an equal amount of time out of the labor force as employed (46.9 and 48.8 percent, respectively), with little time unemployed (4.2 percent). Women dropouts spent considerably less time employed than women with either a high school diploma or college degree. The labor market activities of those with high school equivalency diplomas more closely match those of high school dropouts than of high school graduates, especially for men. Men with a high school equivalency diploma were employed approximately 77 percent of the total weeks during 1991-95, while those with a high school diploma were employed nearly 88 percent of that time. Men with high school equivalency diplomas were unemployed 7.8 percent of the total weeks during 1991-95, similar to the 7.9 percent for high school dropouts but more than the 4.8 percent spent unemployed by high school graduates. Blacks worked about 70 percent of the weeks from 1991 through 1995, Hispanics worked nearly 75 percent of the time, and whites worked about 82 - 3 - percent of those weeks. Compared with whites and Hispanics, blacks spent more time unemployed and out of the labor force. Race and ethnic differentials are greater at lower levels of education and smaller among the more educated. From 1991 to 1995, blacks with less than a high school education spent less time employed than either their white or Hispanic counterparts. Black high school dropouts spent nearly 10 percent of the time unemployed and over 41 percent of the time out of the labor force, compared with nearly 6 and 25 percent, respectively, for whites with the same level of education. Among college graduates, however, racial differences were narrower and in the opposite direction, with blacks spending more time employed and less time out of the labor force than whites or Hispanics. Roughly 37 percent of both men and women experienced at least one period of unemployment from 1991 to 1995. (See table 3.) Among those who had at least one week of unemployment during the period, 46 percent reported only one spell, nearly 25 percent reported two spells, and over 29 percent reported three or more spells. (See table 4.) On average, the total number of unemployment spells for those who experienced unemployment during the 5-year period was 2.2 for men and 2.0 for women. Among those who experienced unemployment during 1991-95, men tended to have more unemployment spells than women. Thirty-three percent of men reported three or more spells, compared with 25 percent of women. Although blacks and Hispanics were more likely than whites to experience an unemployment spell, the percent distribution by number of unemployment spells did not vary greatly by race or ethnicity. Individuals with more education are less likely to experience unemployment spells. Among male high school graduates with at least one episode of unemployment, 39.5 percent had just one unemployment spell, 23.3 percent had two spells, and 37.2 percent had three or more. For male college graduates, 60.2 percent had one spell, 25.8 percent had two spells, and only 14 percent had three or more spells. Differences by education were similar for women. Growth Rates in Real Earnings The earnings of individuals tend to increase more rapidly when they are young. Between the ages of 18 to 22, real hourly earnings grew an average of 7.4 percent per year. The growth rate slowed to 5.5 percent annually while ages 23 to 27 and 2.6 percent annually from ages 28 to 32. (See table 5.) In general, growth rates do not appear to differ much by gender. How- ever, annual earnings growth between the ages of 23 to 27 was higher for men than women. The gender difference in growth rates between these ages was largest among those with at least some college education. Men with a college degree experienced real earnings growth of 10.5 percent per year while ages 23 to 27, compared with 8.3 percent annual growth for women college graduates. This difference may partly reflect gender differences in choice of college majors, with men being more likely to enter high- paying occupations such as engineering. - 4 - Growth rates in real hourly earnings are almost always higher for those with more education. This was particularly true at older ages, where the real hourly earnings growth rate among college graduates consistently outpaced their less-educated counterparts. Growth in real hourly earnings between ages 23 to 27 for male college graduates (10.5 percent) greatly exceeded that of high school graduates (3.8 percent) and dropouts (3.4 percent). By ages 28 to 32, the real earnings growth of men with a high school education or below fell to only 1.1 percent annually, while male college graduates had annual real wage growth of 5.4 percent per year. Growth rates in real hourly earnings do not appear to differ much by race and ethnicity. The only significant difference between blacks and whites occurred from ages 18 to 22. In those ages, whites had, on average, 7.7 percent growth in real wages per year, compared with 5.9 percent annually for blacks. Technical Note The estimates in this release were obtained using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79). This survey is conducted by the Center for Human Resource Research at The Ohio State University and the National Opinion Research Center, under the direction and sponsorship of the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-606-STAT; TDD phone: 202-606-5897; TDD message referral phone number: 1-800-326-2577. Sample The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 is a nationally representative sample of 12,686 young men and women who were 14 to 22 years of age when first surveyed in 1979. This sample of over 12,000 youths was initially comprised of three subsamples: a cross-sectional sample designed to be representative of the noninstitutionalized, civilian segment of young people living in the U.S. in 1978 and born between January 1, 1957, and December 31, 1964; a supplemental sample of youth designed to oversample civilian Hispanics, blacks, and economically disadvantaged white youth living in the U.S. and born between January 1, 1957, and December 31, 1964; and a military oversample of youth born between January 1, 1957, and December 31, 1964, and enlisted in one of the four branches of the active military forces. In 1985, the military oversample was discontinued, and, in 1991, the disadvantaged white youth were dropped from the supplemental sample. As a result, the NLSY79 sample now contains 9,964 individuals. Individuals were surveyed annually until 1994 and are now surveyed every other year. In 1996, 8,636 individuals responded to the survey for a retention rate of nearly 87 percent. Only these individuals are included in the estimates in this release. All results are weighted using the 1996 survey weights that correct for the oversampling, interview nonresponse, and permanent attrition from the survey. When weighted, the data are representative of all Americans living in the U.S. in 1978 and born between 1957 and 1964. Work history data The total number of jobs that people hold during their work life is an easy concept to understand but a difficult one to measure. Reliable estimates require a survey that interviews the same people over the course of their entire work life and also keeps track of all the jobs they ever held. The NLSY79 does the latter, but the respondents in this survey are still relatively young, ages 31 to 39 in 1996. However, as the cohort ages, more complete information will become available. A unique feature of the NLSY79 survey is that it collects the beginning and ending dates of all jobs held by a respondent so that a longitudinal history can be constructed of each respondent’s work experiences. The NLSY79 work history data provide a week-by-week work record of each respondent from January 1, 1978, through the most recent survey date. These data contain information on the respondent’s labor force status each week, the usual hours worked per week at all jobs, and earnings for all jobs. If a respondent worked at more than one job in any week, hours and earnings are obtained for up to four additional jobs. When respondents who missed one or more consecutive survey rounds are interviewed again, they are asked to account for all time since the last interview. Interaction between time and age in a longitudinal survey Because the NLSY79 is a longitudinal survey, meaning the same people are surveyed over time, the ages of the respondents change with each survey round. It is important to keep in mind this inherent link between the calendar years and the ages of the respondents. For example, table 5 reports earnings growth from ages 23 to 27. The youngest respondents in the sample (birth year 1964) were these ages during 1987-91, whereas the oldest respondents (birth year 1957) were these ages from 1980-84. Definitions Job. A job is defined as a period of work with a particular employer. Jobs are therefore employer-based, not position-based. For self-employed workers, each “new” job is defined by the individuals themselves. Unemployment. If respondents indicate a period in which they are not working, they are asked how many of those weeks they spent searching for employment or on layoff. For that number of weeks, they are considered unemployed. For the remaining weeks, they are coded as out of the labor force. No probing for intensity of job search is done. In this release, an unemployment spell is defined as one or more consecutive weeks of unemployment. Usual weekly earnings. Respondents can report earnings over any time frame (hour, day, month, etc.). For those who do not report an hourly wage, one is constructed using usual hours worked over that time frame. Wages greater than $100.00 per hour and less than $1.00 per hour were not included in the analysis of earnings growth. Race and ethnicity groups. The race and ethnicity categories used in this release are different from those used in other BLS publications. In other BLS publications, estimates are often published for the following groups: whites, blacks, and those of Hispanic origin. These groups are not mutually exclusive, as Hispanics are included in both the white and black population groups. In this release, the findings are reported for the following three groups: whites (non-Hispanics), blacks (non- Hispanics), and Hispanics. These three groups are mutually exclusive, but not exhaustive. American Indians, Alaskan Natives, and Asians and Pacific Islanders are included in the totals but are not shown separately. Table 1. Number of jobs held by individuals aged 18 to 32 in 1978-95: Individuals aged 31 to 38 in 1995 by educational attainment, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age Average number of jobs for persons 18 to 32 years in 1978-95 Age in 1995 and characteristic Total(1) 18 to 22 23 to 27 28 to 32 years years years Total, 31 to 38 years 8.6 4.4 3.3 2.6 Men, 31 to 38 years 8.9 4.5 3.4 2.8 Less than a high school diploma 9.4 4.5 3.7 2.9 High school graduates, no college 8.7 4.4 3.3 2.8 Less than a college degree 9.3 4.7 3.5 2.9 College graduates 8.6 4.7 3.4 2.6 Women, 31 to 38 years 8.3 4.3 3.1 2.4 Less than a high school diploma 6.8 3.1 2.4 2.6 High school graduates, no college 7.6 3.9 2.7 2.3 Less than a college degree 8.8 4.6 3.4 2.6 College graduates 9.9 5.3 3.7 2.6 White, 31 to 38 years 8.8 4.6 3.3 2.6 Less than a high school diploma 8.8 4.2 3.3 2.6 High school graduates, no college 8.3 4.4 3.1 2.5 Less than a college degree 9.3 4.9 3.5 2.7 College graduates 9.3 5.1 3.5 2.6 Black, 31 to 38 years 7.9 3.6 3.1 2.6 Less than a high school diploma 7.0 2.8 2.7 2.4 High school graduates, no college 7.8 3.5 3.0 2.7 Less than a college degree 8.0 3.8 3.1 2.7 College graduates 9.2 4.5 3.8 2.8 Hispanic origin, 31 to 38 years 7.9 4.0 3.0 2.5 Less than a high school diploma 7.8 3.8 2.9 2.4 High school graduates, no college 7.8 4.0 2.9 2.5 Less than a college degree 8.1 4.2 3.1 2.7 College graduates 8.6 4.4 3.3 2.7 1 Jobs that were held in more than one of the 5-year age periods were counted in each column but only once in the total column. NOTE: The National Longitudinal Survey consists of men and women who were ages 14 to 22 in 1979. Educational attainment is defined as of the 1996 survey. Race and Hispanic-origin groups are mutually exclusive. Totals include American Indians, Alaskan Natives, and Asian and Pacific Islanders, not shown separately. The first two columns exclude individuals who turned 18 before 1978. The first and last columns exclude individuals who were not yet 33 years of age when interviewed in 1996. Table 2. Percent of weeks employed, unemployed, or out of the labor force, 1991-95: Individuals aged 31 to 38 in 1995 by educational attainment, sex, race, and Hispanic origin Percent of total weeks, 1991-95 Age in 1995 and characteristic Out of the Employed Unemployed labor force Total, 31 to 38 years 79.4 3.8 16.3 Men, 31 to 38 years 87.4 4.3 7.8 Less than a high school diploma 75.2 7.9 16.2 High school graduates, no college 86.8 4.8 7.9 High school equivalency diploma 76.5 7.8 15.3 High school diploma 88.3 4.3 6.9 Less than a college degree 88.0 3.8 7.5 Some college, no degree 86.7 4.3 8.2 Some college, associate degree 91.9 2.4 5.5 College graduates 95.4 1.8 2.4 Bachelor's degree 95.6 1.9 2.2 Advanced degree 95.0 1.6 3.0 Women, 31 to 38 years 71.2 3.3 25.1 Less than a high school diploma 48.8 4.2 46.9 High school graduates, no college 68.9 4.1 26.7 High school equivalency diploma 61.5 4.4 33.8 High school diploma 69.8 4.0 25.8 Less than a college degree 76.1 2.9 20.5 Some college, no degree 76.6 3.0 19.9 Some college, associate degree 75.0 2.8 21.7 College graduates 81.1 1.8 16.6 Bachelor's degree 79.8 1.9 17.7 Advanced degree 85.1 1.3 13.3 White, 31 to 38 years 81.6 3.2 14.9 Less than a high school diploma 68.8 5.5 25.3 High school graduates, no college 80.3 3.6 15.7 High school equivalency diploma 74.4 5.4 20.0 High school diploma 81.0 3.4 15.2 Less than a college degree 82.6 2.8 14.2 Some college, no degree 82.7 3.1 13.7 Some college, associate degree 82.2 2.2 15.4 College graduates 88.2 1.7 9.7 Bachelor's degree 87.3 1.9 10.4 Advanced degree 90.5 1.3 7.8 Black, 31 to 38 years 70.1 7.2 22.1 Less than a high school diploma 48.2 9.8 41.4 High school graduates, no college 69.0 8.4 22.1 High school equivalency diploma 57.3 9.4 32.9 High school diploma 71.1 8.2 20.1 Less than a college degree 77.6 5.6 16.1 Some college, no degree 77.3 5.7 16.4 Some college, associate degree 78.8 5.2 14.9 College graduates 90.9 2.6 6.2 Bachelor's degree 90.7 2.7 6.2 Advanced degree 91.7 2.3 6.1 Hispanic origin, 31 to 38 years 74.8 4.4 20.0 Less than a high school diploma 62.2 5.7 31.2 High school graduates, no college 75.3 4.9 19.2 High school equivalency diploma 66.0 6.8 26.0 High school diploma 77.4 4.5 17.6 Less than a college degree 80.7 3.4 14.6 Some college, no degree 79.0 3.7 15.9 Some college, associate degree 85.6 2.7 11.1 College graduates 88.7 1.8 9.0 Bachelor's degree 88.8 1.3 9.1 Advanced degree (1) (1) (1) 1 Data not shown when the unweighted cell size is less than 50. NOTE: The National Longitudinal Survey consists of men and women who were ages 14 to 22 in 1979. Educational attainment is defined as of the 1996 survey. Race and Hispanic-origin groups are mutually exclusive. Totals include American Indians, Alaskan Natives, and Asian and Pacific Islanders, not shown separately. Table 3. Percent who reported at least one spell of unemployment, 1991-95: Individuals aged 31 to 38 in 1995 by educational attainment, sex, race, and Hispanic origin Percent reporting at least one spell of unemployment, 1991-95 Age in 1995 and characteristic Sex Race and Hispanic Total origin Men Women White Black Hispanic origin Total, 31 to 38 years 37.1 37.6 36.6 34.4 49.6 41.4 Less than a high school diploma 51.5 54.6 47.4 50.2 60.2 48.1 High school graduates, no college 40.8 40.9 40.7 37.5 54.6 46.2 High school equivalency diploma 55.5 57.9 52.6 52.6 67.0 51.4 High school diploma 38.8 38.4 39.2 35.7 52.4 45.0 Less than a college degree 34.6 35.6 33.8 32.3 43.0 25.5 Some college, no degree 37.1 38.6 35.8 35.2 44.2 35.7 Some college, associate degree 28.0 26.6 28.9 25.2 38.4 34.9 College graduates 24.5 22.3 26.9 24.3 28.4 (1) Bachelor's degree 26.2 23.3 29.1 26.7 26.6 (1) Advanced degree 19.6 19.8 19.4 17.9 36.8 (1) 1 Data not shown when the unweighted cell size is less than 50. NOTE: The National Longitudinal Survey consists of men and women who were ages 14 to 22 in 1979. Educational attainment is defined as of the 1996 survey. Race and Hispanic-origin groups are mutually exclusive. Totals include American Indians, Alaskan Natives, and Asian and Pacific Islanders, not shown separately. Table 4. Number of unemployment spells, 1991-95: Individuals aged 31 to 38 in 1995 who reported at least one spell of unemployment by educational attainment, sex, race, and Hispanic origin Number of Percent distribution Age in 1995 and characteristic spells, One Two Three or 1991-95 spell spells more spells Total, 31 to 38 years 2.1 46.1 24.8 29.2 Men, 31 to 38 years 2.2 42.6 25.3 33.2 Less than a high school diploma 2.2 39.3 25.3 35.4 High school graduates, no college 2.4 39.5 23.3 37.2 Less than a college degree 2.2 41.3 24.4 34.3 College graduates 1.6 60.2 25.8 14.0 Women, 31 to 38 years 2.0 49.8 25.3 25.0 Less than a high school diploma 2.1 50.1 22.7 27.2 High school graduates, no college 2.1 46.9 24.8 28.4 Less than a college degree 2.0 45.8 28.1 26.0 College graduates 1.6 63.2 25.0 11.9 White, 31 to 38 years 2.1 47.7 24.6 27.7 Less than a high school diploma 2.1 46.1 24.0 30.0 High school graduates, no college 2.2 44.7 23.6 31.7 Less than a college degree 2.1 42.3 26.3 31.4 College graduates 1.6 62.6 25.8 (1) Black, 31 to 38 years 2.3 39.6 26.6 33.8 Less than a high school diploma 2.4 37.2 23.1 39.7 High school graduates, no college 2.4 36.6 26.0 37.4 Less than a college degree 2.0 44.6 31.6 23.8 College graduates 1.8 (1) (1) (1) Hispanic origin, 31 to 38 years 2.0 49.3 24.5 26.2 Less than a high school diploma 2.2 42.9 27.7 29.4 High school graduates, no college 2.0 48.7 26.7 24.6 Less than a college degree 1.9 55.6 (1) (1) College graduates (1) (1) (1) (1) 1 Data not shown when the unweighted cell size is less than 50. NOTE: The National Longitudinal Survey consists of men and women who were ages 14 to 22 in 1979. Educational attainment is defined as of the 1996 survey. Race and Hispanic-origin groups are mutually exclusive. Totals include American Indians, Alaskan Natives, and Asian and Pacific Islanders, not shown separately. Table 5. Average annual growth rates in real hourly earnings, 1978-95: Individuals aged 31 to 38 in 1995 by educational attainment, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age Age in 1995 and characteristic 18 to 22 23 to 27 28 to 32 years years years Total, 31 to 38 years 7.4 5.5 2.6 Men, 31 to 38 years 7.1 6.1 2.3 Less than a high school diploma 4.9 3.4 1.1 High school graduates, no college 7.3 3.8 1.1 Less than a college degree 7.1 7.7 2.1 College graduates 8.4 10.5 5.4 Women, 31 to 38 years 7.6 4.9 2.9 Less than a high school diploma 9.1 2.9 0.9 High school graduates, no college 6.1 3.3 2.9 Less than a college degree 6.8 4.7 2.4 College graduates 10.3 8.3 4.4 White, 31 to 38 years 7.7 5.6 2.6 Less than a high school diploma 7.2 3.2 1.0 High school graduates, no college 6.8 3.4 2.0 Less than a college degree 7.3 6.3 1.9 College graduates 9.5 9.5 4.9 Black, 31 to 38 years 5.9 5.1 2.3 Less than a high school diploma 4.4 3.2 1.3 High school graduates, no college 5.8 4.5 1.4 Less than a college degree 5.6 5.2 3.0 College graduates 8.3 9.0 5.0 Hispanic origin, 31 to 38 years 6.9 4.3 1.9 Less than a high school diploma 4.9 4.4 0.8 High school graduates, no college 7.6 2.9 1.5 Less than a college degree 7.1 4.5 2.6 College graduates 8.5 8.0 3.9 NOTE: The National Longitudinal Survey consists of men and women who were ages 14 to 22 in 1979. Educational attainment is defined as of the 1996 survey. Race and Hispanic-origin groups are mutually exclusive. Totals include American Indians, Alaskan Natives, and Asian and Pacific Islanders, not shown separately. The first column excludes individuals who turned 18 before 1978. The last column excludes individuals who were not yet 33 years of age when interviewed in 1996. The CPI-UXI (research index) was used to deflate hourly earnings to 1995 dollars, prior to calculating the growth rates.