FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.S.T. FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 1996 Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press under lock-up conditions with the explicit understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Statement of Katharine G. Abraham Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday, November 1, 1996 Good morning. I am pleased to have this opportunity to comment on the employment and unemployment data released this morning. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in October, in line with the average monthly gain so far this year. Private sector employment increased by 250,000, after having shown little change in September. The unemployment rate remained at 5.2 percent. Fueling the increase in payroll employment were services and trade. Services employment rose by 119,000 overall following several months of more modest gains. Employment in amusement and recreation services was up by 38,000, seasonally adjusted, as relatively light summer hiring resulted in fewer-than-usual autumn layoffs. Health services added 24,000 jobs, about average for the year. Employment in educational services rose by 21,000, reflecting later-than-usual fall hiring. Job gains also occurred in auto repair, legal services, and child day care. In contrast to these advances, business services showed virtually no job growth for the second consecutive month, as a decline in personnel supply services offset a gain in computer and data processing services. Retail trade added 62,000 jobs, reflecting a strong start in seasonal hiring in department stores, and gains in food stores and other retail establishments. Wholesale trade employment rose by 19,000, mainly in the distribution of nondurable goods, especially apparel and groceries. After holding steady in September, employment in finance, insurance, and real estate rose by 26,000 in October. Contributing to the gain were finance, especially commercial banks, and real estate, as continuing strength in home sales resulted in relatively light seasonal layoffs. Manufacturing employment was about unchanged in October following a large decline in September. Industrial machinery added back about one-half of the jobs lost in the previous month. A return of striking workers helped to boost employment in aircraft and parts by 6,000. Lumber and wood products, printing and publishing, and chemicals also recorded job gains. Offsetting these improvements was a decline in auto factory employment of 14,000. Losses continued in electronic equipment and apparel. Employment in construction increased by 10,000, less than half of the average monthly gain thus far this year. Government employment declined for the second consecutive month. At the state and local levels, these losses (on a seasonally adjusted basis) largely reflected changes in the timing of school openings. Federal employment, excluding the Postal Service, fell by 7,000 in October and has declined by over 300,000 since its most recent peak in May 1992. Average hours of production and nonsupervisory workers fell by 0.4 hour to 34.3 hours per week, about reversing increases in the prior 2 months. The factory workweek fell by 0.2 hour to 41.6 hours. Average hourly earnings of workers on private nonfarm payrolls were unchanged at $11.91, following gains totaling 10 cents over the prior 2 months. Turning to data from the household survey, the unemployment rate remained at 5.2 percent. Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates were essentially unchanged for adult men (4.3 percent), adult women (4.7 percent), teenagers (16.1 percent), whites (4.4 percent), blacks (10.8 percent), and Hispanics (8.0 percent). Both the number unemployed, at 6.9 million, and the number employed, at 127.6 million, were little changed over the month. Before concluding, I would like to provide you with a preliminary estimate of the effect on our total payroll employment figures of the benchmark revision scheduled for release next June. Once a year the Bureau adjusts the payroll survey's sample-based employment estimates to incorporate the previous year's March universe employment counts in a process known as benchmarking. These universe employment counts are derived principally from state unemployment insurance tax reports that nearly all employers are required to file. By early November of each year, we typically have completed preliminary tabulations of these universe counts for the first quarter of the year. We routinely share our estimate of the anticipated size of the benchmark revision for the prior March at the time we release our October Employment Situation report. Preliminary tabulations for the first quarter of 1996 indicate that the payroll employment estimates will require only a slight adjustment, an upward revision of approximately 90,000 or one-tenth of one percent for the March 1996 reference month. This is well within the 10- year historical average of plus or minus three-tenths of one percent for benchmark revisions to the establishment survey, and indicates that our monthly sample survey results tracked closely with the universe employment counts for the 12-month period ending this past March. In summary, the number of employees on nonfarm payrolls rose in October and unemployment was unchanged. My colleagues and I now would be glad to respond to your questions. 5 4