Table 2. BLS projected growth rate compared with naïve and actual growth rates and BLS absolute error compared with naïve and mean absolute errors, by category of labor force, macroeconomy, and industry employment, 1996–2006, 1998–2008, and 2000–10
Category	BLS projected growth rate			Naïve growth rate			Actual growth rate			BLS absolute error			Naïve absolute error			Mean absolute error
Category	1996–2006	1998–2008	2000–10	1986–1996	1988–1998	1990–2000	1996–2006	1998–2008	2000–10	1996–2006	1998–2008	2000–10	1996–2006	1998–2008	2000–10	BLS rate	Naïve rate
Labor force
Totals
Civilian noninstitutional population	1.0	1.1	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.1	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.2
Labor force	1.1	1.2	1.0	1.3	1.2	1.3	1.2	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.2
Participation rate	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	–0.1	–0.2	–0.4	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.4
Cohort
Male	0.8	0.9	0.8	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.2	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.2
Female	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.7	1.5	1.6	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.7	0.3	0.5
Age, years
16 to 24	1.4	1.4	1.5	–1.0	–0.3	0.0	0.6	0.1	–0.7	0.9	1.4	2.2	1.5	0.4	0.7	1.5	0.9
25 to 54	0.5	0.5	0.3	2.0	1.6	1.4	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	1.3	1.1	1.2	0.1	1.2
55 and older	3.7	4.0	3.6	0.7	1.2	2.2	4.8	5.0	4.9	1.1	1.0	1.2	4.1	3.8	2.7	1.1	3.5
Race
White	0.9	0.9	0.8	1.1	1.0	1.0	0.9	0.9	0.5	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.1	0.2
Black	1.3	1.8	2.0	1.8	1.9	1.8	1.4	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.7	1.2	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.7	0.8
Asian	3.5	3.4	2.3	5.4	5.4	5.1	6.1	5.7	3.7	2.6	2.2	1.3	0.7	0.3	1.4	2.0	0.8
Hispanic	3.1	3.2	2.3	4.7	4.8	4.5	4.9	4.4	3.1	1.8	1.2	0.8	0.3	0.4	1.4	1.3	0.7
Non-Hispanic	0.8	0.9	0.8	1.0	0.9	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.3
Macroeconomy
Unemployment rate	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Household employment	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.5	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.0	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.9	0.1	0.3	1.0	0.4	0.5
Nonfarm wage and salary employment	1.4	1.3	1.4	1.9	1.8	1.9	1.3	0.9	–0.1	0.1	0.4	1.6	0.5	0.9	2.0	0.7	1.2
Nonfarm labor productivity (index 1992 = 100)	1.2	1.4	2.8	0.7	1.2	2.0	3.0	2.7	2.5	1.8	1.3	0.3	2.3	1.5	0.5	1.1	1.4
Oil prices (nominal dollars)	2.8	8.1	–0.4	3.6	–1.8	2.2	11.4	22.7	10.7	8.6	14.7	11.1	7.8	24.5	8.5	11.5	13.6
GDP rebased real 2005 dollars	2.5	1.9	3.2	2.7	2.8	3.3	3.2	2.5	1.5	0.7	0.6	1.7	0.6	0.3	1.8	1.0	0.9
Personal consumption expenditures	2.9	2.2	3.5	2.7	2.9	3.5	3.7	3.0	1.9	0.8	0.8	1.6	1.0	0.1	1.6	1.0	0.9
Gross private domestic investment	3.3	NA	5.1	3.2	NA	7.1	5.0	1.4	–1.7	1.8	NA	6.8	1.9	NA	8.7	4.3	5.3
Net exports	0.3	NA	4.9	–4.5	NA	20.6	20.7	7.0	–0.7	20.4	NA	5.7	25.2	NA	21.3	13.0	23.3
Exports	7.3	NA	6.2	8.9	NA	7.1	4.5	4.6	3.4	2.7	NA	2.8	4.4	NA	3.6	2.8	4
Imports	6.7	NA	5.9	6.1	NA	9.3	7.7	5.1	2.4	1.0	NA	3.4	1.6	NA	6.8	2.2	4.2
Government	0.3	NA	0.8	1.2	NA	1.3	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.1	NA	1.4	1.1	NA	0.9	1.8	1
Federal defense	–1.8	NA	0.6	–2.0	NA	–2.4	2.4	3.9	4.7	4.3	NA	4.1	4.5	NA	7.1	4.2	5.8
Federal nondefense	–0.7	NA	1.5	2.3	NA	1.8	2.8	3.0	3.9	3.5	NA	2.5	0.5	NA	2.1	3.0	1.3
State and local	1.1	NA	0.7	2.6	NA	2.8	2.2	1.6	0.9	1.1	NA	0.3	0.4	NA	1.9	0.7	1.1
Industry employment
Total wage and salary workers	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.4	1.4	1.8	1.3	0.8	–0.2	0.3	0.7	1.8	0.2	0.6	2.0	0.9	0.9
Goods	0.3	0.4	0.8	–0.4	–0.1	0.9	–0.4	–1.3	–3.2	0.7	1.7	4.0	0.0	1.2	4.1	2.1	1.8
Mining	–2.3	–1.7	–0.7	–3.9	–3.1	–3.0	1.2	2.3	2.3	3.4	4.1	3.0	5.0	5.4	5.3	3.5	5.3
Construction	0.9	0.9	1.3	–0.3	0.7	2.4	3.4	1.5	–2.0	2.4	0.6	3.4	3.7	0.9	4.5	2.1	3
Manufacturing	0.2	0.3	0.6	–0.3	–0.2	0.4	–1.9	–2.6	–3.9	2.1	2.9	4.5	1.6	2.4	4.3	3.2	2.8
Durable	0.1	0.4	0.8	–1.0	–0.4	0.8	–1.5	–2.4	–4.1	1.6	2.8	4.9	0.5	2.0	4.9	3.1	2.5
Nondurable	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.1	–0.2	–2.4	–2.8	–3.6	2.8	3.0	3.9	3.0	2.9	3.4	3.2	3.1
Services	1.8	1.8	1.9	1.9	1.8	2.0	1.7	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.5	1.4	0.2	0.5	1.5	0.7	0.7
Transportation, communications and utilities	1.5	1.5	1.8	1.5	1.4	1.7	0.6	0.0	–1.4	0.9	1.5	3.1	0.9	1.4	3.1	1.8	1.8
Transportation	1.8	1.6	2.1	1.9	1.9	2.3	1.0	0.5	–0.7	0.8	1.1	2.8	0.9	1.4	3.0	1.5	1.8
Communications	–0.1	1.5	0.8	–0.1	0.3	0.6	0.2	–1.0	–3.6	0.3	2.6	4.4	0.3	1.3	4.2	2.4	2
Utilities	2.8	1.2	2.1	1.9	0.8	–0.2	–1.0	–0.7	–0.8	3.8	1.8	2.8	2.9	1.4	0.6	2.8	1.6
Trade	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.1	1.2	1.6	1.2	0.9	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.3	0.1	0.3	1.7	0.6	0.7
Wholesale	1.2	0.9	1.2	0.7	0.8	1.5	0.7	0.3	–0.8	0.5	0.6	2.0	0.0	0.5	2.3	1.0	0.9
Retail	1.0	1.3	1.3	1.2	1.3	1.7	1.3	1.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	1.1	0.1	0.3	1.5	0.5	0.6
Finance, insurance and real estate	1.0	1.3	0.8	3.1	2.8	3.5	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.8	0.3	0.7	1.3	1.8	3.3	0.6	2.1
Other services	3.2	3.0	3.0	2.7	2.6	2.8	2.5	1.9	1.0	0.7	1.1	2.0	0.3	0.7	1.8	1.3	0.9
Government	0.8	0.9	0.8	1.0	0.7	0.4	1.1	1.2	0.8	0.3	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.4
Federal	–0.7	–0.8	–0.9	–0.2	–1.8	–3.1	–0.5	0.0	0.4	0.2	0.8	1.3	0.3	1.8	3.5	0.8	1.8
State and local	1.0	1.1	1.0	1.2	1.0	0.9	1.4	1.4	0.9	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.3	0.2
Note: GDP = gross domestic product, NA = not applicable, and dashes indicate no data reported. Sources: Historical data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.