Figure 1. Average annual inflation from all 512 models for overlapping 2-year time dummy models, 2009–13
Scatter graph Histogram Scatter graph Histogram

–0.20263

0.262473 2 –44.65

–0.19674

0.595942 0 –43.70

–0.09177

0.826216 0 –42.75

–0.11709

0.657454 0 –41.80

–0.07109

0.442918 0 –40.85

–0.03366

0.399037 0 –39.90

–0.04496

0.15823 0 –38.95

–0.4511

0.651544 0 –38.00

–0.29923

0.835588 1 –37.05

–0.29923

0.835588 4 –36.10

–0.17825

0.614038 1 –35.15

–0.12333

0.844077 2 –34.20

–0.16065

0.818342 3 –33.25

–0.10731

0.468608 4 –32.30

–0.11827

0.482674 2 –31.35

–0.01098

0.500607 4 –30.40

–0.44182

0.660052 7 –29.45

–0.31476

0.860625 5 –28.50

–0.12487

0.863852 3 –27.55

–0.15656

0.828523 8 –26.60

–0.13262

0.643568 4 –25.65

–0.12774

0.717855 10 –24.70

–0.03457

0.755339 9 –23.75

–0.36004

0.684391 6 –22.80

–0.29312

0.852766 10 –21.85

–0.1032

0.860295 12 –20.90

–0.08805

0.834462 21 –19.95

–0.06499

0.835896 24 –19.00

–0.04681

0.839541 29 –18.05

–0.21064

0.854568 18 –17.10

–0.20007

0.876364 18 –16.15

–0.06313

0.807374 24 –15.20

–0.12427

0.673048 21 –14.25

–0.15171

0.679079 23 –13.30

–0.31971

0.773852 32 –12.35

–0.30402

0.835878 20 –11.40

0.016613

0.655606 25 –10.45

0.069776

0.566113 22 –9.50

–0.33765

0.717066 20 –8.55

–0.24385

0.857954 25 –7.60

–0.01774

0.451963 13 –6.65

–0.36327

0.699736 20 –5.70

–0.31934

0.844425 15 –4.75

–0.36494

0.736255 10 –3.80

–0.27143

0.84969 11 –2.85

–0.23516

0.848022 8 –1.90

–0.13228

0.867214 5 –0.95

–0.15893

0.846233 2 0

–0.10703

0.669438 1 0.95

–0.12224

0.737248 2 1.90

–0.00959

0.768751 0 2.85

–0.36206

0.693563 1 3.80

–0.30771

0.863913 1 4.75

–0.10861

0.910338 1 5.70

–0.11348

0.84861 2 6.65

–0.09117

0.853719 1 7.60

–0.02452

0.888931 — —

–0.21682

0.86325 — —

–0.22764

0.897038 — —

–0.10733

0.881064 — —

–0.24318

0.879275 — —

–0.10605

0.837991 — —

–0.23394

0.837415 — —

–0.26977

0.879853 — —

–0.00294

0.678672 — —

0.067093

0.672153 — —

–0.34967

0.730626 — —

–0.26338

0.88707 — —

–0.02388

0.575557 — —

–0.3662

0.718009 — —

–0.34287

0.877138 — —

–0.28563

0.790842 — —

–0.21951

0.899196 — —

–0.18419

0.888634 — —

–0.10777

0.901846 — —

–0.11761

0.866601 — —

–0.09442

0.873511 — —

–0.04295

0.901522 — —

–0.16148

0.865162 — —

–0.20313

0.889713 — —

–0.0996

0.873527 — —

–0.18144

0.842464 — —

–0.10371

0.853363 — —

–0.16888

0.831029 — —

–0.25177

0.864073 — —

–0.06201

0.764448 — —

0.02166

0.793504 — —

–0.28807

0.732753 — —

–0.24704

0.875173 — —

–0.05582

0.795095 — —

–0.26406

0.741429 — —

–0.30547

0.868128 — —

–0.19705

0.794085 — —

–0.20137

0.883465 — —

–0.09533

0.892935 — —

–0.08841

0.877524 — —

–0.10318

0.85956 — —

–0.07569

0.867226 — —

–0.18121

0.875789 — —

–0.18564

0.876977 — —

–0.06295

0.845157 — —

–0.02419

0.851511 — —

–0.19683

0.858821 — —

–0.18844

0.881695 — —

–0.03265

0.847222 — —

–0.17939

0.858906 — —

–0.21114

0.87732 — —

–0.18375

0.877213 — —

–0.16908

0.886905 — —

–0.18443

0.879483 — —

–0.07823

0.816512 — —

–0.05795

0.820647 — —

–0.17937

0.83591 — —

–0.21508

0.860114 — —

–0.14278

0.688703 — —

–0.3322

0.783527 — —

–0.32565

0.844209 — —

–0.31512

0.796493 — —

–0.28155

0.851394 — —

–0.21174

0.865837 — —

0.060162

0.700402 — —

–0.24721

0.7568 — —

–0.26386

0.863357 — —

–0.24542

0.78675 — —

–0.19585

0.874052 — —

–0.15798

0.87397 — —

–0.33554

0.75971 — —

–0.29685

0.858386 — —

–0.26519

0.860777 — —

–0.23613

0.853626 — —

–0.10959

0.916343 — —

–0.12195

0.871208 — —

–0.09776

0.878419 — —

–0.03216

0.917649 — —

–0.17801

0.870549 — —

–0.22184

0.899837 — —

–0.11067

0.890927 — —

–0.2385

0.883688 — —

–0.0923

0.873575 — —

–0.178

0.852006 — —

–0.25738

0.882489 — —

–0.04163

0.796892 — —

0.042771

0.812202 — —

–0.28758

0.750235 — —

–0.25946

0.888587 — —

–0.03029

0.808673 — —

–0.24955

0.758458 — —

–0.33639

0.876683 — —

–0.19283

0.821211 — —

–0.19789

0.906762 — —

–0.11657

0.902659 — —

–0.09545

0.921736 — —

–0.17283

0.924954 — —

–0.0603

0.925197 — —

–0.13344

0.91474 — —

–0.14916

0.917017 — —

–0.07635

0.86082 — —

–0.00796

0.894347 — —

–0.20994

0.870249 — —

–0.21339

0.907026 — —

–0.01469

0.890572 — —

–0.18709

0.872458 — —

–0.24527

0.902727 — —

–0.13578

0.912931 — —

–0.13746

0.929949 — —

–0.14638

0.913373 — —

–0.19085

0.908734 — —

–0.04864

0.898182 — —

–0.14072

0.885091 — —

–0.1911

0.902645 — —

–0.19084

0.901938 — —

–0.25316

0.886972 — —

–0.29587

0.902552 — —

–0.20057

0.865082 — —

–0.21835

0.904075 — —

–0.17652

0.909531 — —

0.077291

0.745751 — —

–0.24901

0.785495 — —

–0.29445

0.892864 — —

–0.20028

0.834568 — —

–0.16468

0.920557 — —

–0.14273

0.908853 — —

–0.27959

0.804994 — —

–0.26491

0.917707 — —

–0.20641

0.925827 — —

–0.14382

0.910191 — —

–0.09314

0.909403 — —

–0.11882

0.90611 — —

–0.06354

0.916706 — —

–0.0842

0.902305 — —

–0.12572

0.902432 — —

–0.08834

0.875989 — —

–0.0247

0.904055 — —

–0.15716

0.869448 — —

–0.19197

0.896636 — —

–0.03793

0.902966 — —

–0.12444

0.874561 — —

–0.20498

0.896371 — —

–0.07913

0.902873 — —

–0.11451

0.915313 — —

–0.06834

0.909944 — —

–0.12469

0.883496 — —

–0.04973

0.892419 — —

–0.07881

0.873832 — —

–0.17406

0.885731 — —

–0.12519

0.867203 — —

–0.18975

0.843995 — —

–0.27328

0.875282 — —

–0.13673

0.85668 — —

–0.19892

0.886805 — —

–0.07589

0.908289 — —

0.002986

0.83264 — —

–0.19159

0.780675 — —

–0.26226

0.884357 — —

–0.13076

0.824326 — —

–0.15072

0.902424 — —

–0.05985

0.909524 — —

–0.18003

0.817102 — —

–0.2257

0.896435 — —

–0.12764

0.910497 — —

–0.06457

0.905629 — —

–0.09331

0.877515 — —

–0.05248

0.885033 — —

–0.14396

0.885863 — —

–0.14769

0.88529 — —

–0.07474

0.866211 — —

–0.1895

0.876828 — —

–0.20194

0.878283 — —

–0.17098

0.887181 — —

–0.16802

0.887355 — —

–0.1866

0.883216 — —

–0.01221

0.859309 — —

–0.16417

0.862622 — —

–0.20027

0.882318 — —

–0.15519

0.881489 — —

–0.14246

0.89391 — —

–0.15496

0.888304 — —

–0.17324

0.87741 — —

–0.18668

0.887671 — —

–0.20396

0.883164 — —

–0.16993

0.890113 — —

–0.06533

0.82741 — —

–0.20076

0.844756 — —

–0.23918

0.867037 — —

–0.17659

0.850993 — —

–0.1893

0.873489 — —

–0.16131

0.87752 — —

–0.32306

0.805692 — —

–0.30155

0.85881 — —

–0.23877

0.874558 — —

–0.21032

0.869346 — —

–0.21512

0.808509 — —

–0.21947

0.879399 — —

–0.18993

0.882674 — —

–0.15177

0.879824 — —

–0.26494

0.865448 — —

–0.09811

0.925362 — —

–0.16693

0.926495 — —

–0.05708

0.934376 — —

–0.09882

0.919772 — —

–0.13396

0.9199 — —

–0.0823

0.88364 — —

–0.01673

0.921599 — —

–0.17302

0.877227 — —

–0.20872

0.908759 — —

–0.02595

0.917744 — —

–0.13019

0.881123 — —

–0.22874

0.903432 — —

–0.08697

0.922718 — —

–0.11944

0.935904 — —

–0.08721

0.922777 — —

–0.18655

0.910334 — —

–0.04659

0.913056 — —

–0.09989

0.892835 — —

–0.18266

0.904332 — —

–0.17621

0.908595 — —

–0.23305

0.88971 — —

–0.29641

0.902056 — —

–0.13491

0.881481 — —

–0.19482

0.910758 — —

–0.10141

0.926592 — —

0.034188

0.854657 — —

–0.15364

0.81037 — —

–0.28596

0.89258 — —

–0.12768

0.854555 — —

–0.14865

0.925999 — —

–0.08553

0.919791 — —

–0.17316

0.835714 — —

–0.24994

0.919609 — —

–0.15736

0.932002 — —

–0.07222

0.92541 — —

–0.15636

0.933074 — —

–0.04264

0.93588 — —

–0.10582

0.923267 — —

–0.12051

0.924735 — —

–0.13019

0.943729 — —

–0.16681

0.930024 — —

–0.19059

0.929423 — —

–0.10784

0.930719 — —

–0.11274

0.93291 — —

–0.14634

0.919791 — —

0.005756

0.898171 — —

–0.17297

0.879385 — —

–0.23046

0.909316 — —

–0.11956

0.917013 — —

–0.12208

0.936157 — —

–0.12899

0.920657 — —

–0.13349

0.913157 — —

–0.18439

0.935647 — —

–0.19015

0.930618 — —

–0.11028

0.932491 — —

–0.13767

0.929199 — —

–0.18107

0.912004 — —

–0.23064

0.918599 — —

–0.10869

0.905466 — —

–0.13944

0.923802 — —

–0.1344

0.920416 — —

–0.21873

0.910782 — —

–0.24409

0.92944 — —

–0.19932

0.935191 — —

–0.14824

0.920834 — —

–0.1772

0.850677 — —

–0.21541

0.929367 — —

–0.18699

0.931418 — —

–0.09356

0.929783 — —

–0.16321

0.947619 — —

–0.10495

0.913778 — —

–0.04384

0.92367 — —

–0.05787

0.91 — —

–0.09794

0.909314 — —

–0.07788

0.920467 — —

–0.09707

0.906619 — —

–0.14412

0.906923 — —

–0.05891

0.916548 — —

–0.08837

0.917432 — —

–0.06969

0.911674 — —

–0.01943

0.90568 — —

–0.11989

0.877648 — —

–0.19703

0.901235 — —

–0.06349

0.905387 — —

–0.10124

0.920007 — —

–0.05097

0.916293 — —

–0.07488

0.904338 — —

–0.13558

0.918758 — —

–0.09861

0.917703 — —

–0.04459

0.922212 — —

–0.07198

0.902364 — —

–0.10491

0.883794 — —

–0.1975

0.89514 — —

–0.0503

0.892181 — —

–0.12269

0.905022 — —

–0.05412

0.914881 — —

–0.15403

0.869338 — —

–0.22024

0.897496 — —

–0.10626

0.921213 — —

–0.04706

0.917757 — —

–0.10905

0.846142 — —

–0.17391

0.910724 — —

–0.0954

0.92169 — —

–0.01997

0.921893 — —

–0.0975

0.921411 — —

–0.05782

0.884496 — —

–0.15645

0.887137 — —

–0.16683

0.88661 — —

–0.12927

0.896595 — —

–0.12503

0.895605 — —

–0.15108

0.891013 — —

–0.1799

0.887839 — —

–0.18485

0.888319 — —

–0.20597

0.888144 — —

–0.17575

0.890039 — —

–0.14369

0.881767 — —

–0.16079

0.894432 — —

–0.17691

0.892176 — —

–0.1341

0.898382 — —

–0.187

0.892554 — —

–0.19327

0.859207 — —

–0.21182

0.879637 — —

–0.18944

0.885171 — —

–0.15342

0.88244 — —

–0.23916

0.87749 — —

–0.18237

0.887655 — —

–0.15214

0.933638 — —

–0.04172

0.942588 — —

–0.07435

0.927583 — —

–0.10844

0.927029 — —

–0.12026

0.945441 — —

–0.14795

0.931428 — —

–0.18351

0.929403 — —

–0.06675

0.937508 — —

–0.08947

0.938806 — —

–0.09432

0.929001 — —

–0.00674

0.922818 — —

–0.11739

0.8876 — —

–0.21352

0.909995 — —

–0.0723

0.926397 — —

–0.10619

0.941196 — —

–0.07139

0.929556 — —

–0.08084

0.922651 — —

–0.16068

0.938794 — —

–0.13828

0.93714 — —

–0.05363

0.942118 — —

–0.12662

0.931891 — —

–0.16444

0.913972 — —

–0.23125

0.918256 — —

–0.05943

0.915294 — —

–0.1222

0.928864 — —

–0.0789

0.933432 — —

–0.19042

0.914112 — —

–0.23868

0.929669 — —

–0.15178

0.940788 — —

–0.06554

0.939297 — —

–0.09008

0.871032 — —

–0.19816

0.931313 — —

–0.13966

0.93719 — —

–0.03278

0.941814 — —

–0.11344

0.954605 — —

–0.10964

0.951001 — —

–0.14088

0.936075 — —

–0.16414

0.935092 — —

–0.0771

0.938327 — —

–0.08053

0.94015 — —

–0.11889

0.927157 — —

–0.14227

0.947037 — —

–0.15769

0.948567 — —

–0.18131

0.937096 — —

–0.11303

0.933202 — —

–0.11269

0.918021 — —

–0.16573

0.94001 — —

–0.17586

0.934619 — —

–0.08668

0.93919 — —

–0.15201

0.949847 — —

–0.14897

0.932072 — —

–0.18086

0.942497 — —

–0.17047

0.940876 — —

–0.09998

0.932754 — —

–0.16933

0.948844 — —

–0.13702

0.953006 — —

–0.05943

0.927561 — —

–0.07229

0.914419 — —

–0.11714

0.913686 — —

–0.02856

0.923376 — —

–0.05662

0.923791 — —

–0.05211

0.91685 — —

–0.07476

0.92032 — —

–0.11067

0.921517 — —

–0.09972

0.921069 — —

–0.03982

0.922228 — —

–0.05777

0.906875 — —

–0.12159

0.922826 — —

–0.08086

0.923854 — —

–0.0195

0.928138 — —

–0.07415

0.928358 — —

–0.07297

0.902111 — —

–0.14601

0.914017 — —

–0.08624

0.926024 — —

–0.02098

0.925038 — —

–0.08075

0.92888 — —

–0.05644

0.932515 — —

–0.14294

0.897431 — —

–0.14534

0.896572 — —

–0.17193

0.895866 — —

–0.13484

0.898425 — —

–0.19457

0.89342 — —

–0.15443

0.90099 — —

–0.18344

0.889308 — —

–0.10175

0.95201 — —

–0.12381

0.937344 — —

–0.15829

0.935057 — —

–0.03911

0.94438 — —

–0.0608

0.945252 — —

–0.07601

0.934781 — —

–0.11959

0.949195 — —

–0.14509

0.949716 — —

–0.14267

0.941388 — —

–0.05751

0.942671 — —

–0.06028

0.927201 — —

–0.1417

0.942957 — —

–0.12433

0.940929 — —

–0.03101

0.948394 — —

–0.10446

0.956444 — —

–0.12436

0.934567 — —

–0.17593

0.942743 — —

–0.13201

0.945296 — —

–0.03916

0.946664 — —

–0.1182

0.954961 — —

–0.08846

0.959599 — —

–0.11313

0.952655 — —

–0.12815

0.953838 — —

–0.15857

0.941765 — —

–0.08127

0.940661 — —

–0.14744

0.951927 — —

–0.13188

0.953838 — —

–0.13556

0.955167 — —

–0.0463

0.927291 — —

–0.0802

0.927743 — —

–0.08242

0.925515 — —

–0.01837

0.927591 — —

–0.07194

0.929465 — —

–0.04954

0.934233 — —

–0.0566

0.934235 — —

–0.15548

0.90166 — —

–0.09251

0.954609 — —

–0.11725

0.954832 — —

–0.1256

0.945428 — —

–0.03589

0.948456 — —

–0.10775

0.956268 — —

–0.08412

0.960299 — —

–0.09505

0.959938 — —

–0.12079

0.956811 — —

–0.05093

0.934164 — —

–0.08773

0.960475 — —

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.