Figure 3. Comparison of official PPI microprocessors index with counterfactual BIC and MSE microprocessors indexes, January 2009 to March 2015
Microprocessors index value Min BIC Min MSE Official PPI

Jan 2009

66.7 66.7 66.7

Feb 2009

66.6 66.6 66.6

Mar 2009

66.6 66.6 66.6

Apr 2009

64.5 64.5 65.1

May 2009

64.5 64.5 65.1

Jun 2009

60.3 60.3 60.9

Jul 2009

59.4 59.4 60.0

Aug 2009

59.4 59.4 60.0

Sep 2009

57.2 57.2 57.8

Oct 2009

56.3 56.1 57.6

Nov 2009

56.2 56.0 57.5

Dec 2009

56.2 56.0 57.5

Jan 2010

53.5 53.3 57.4

Feb 2010

53.5 53.3 57.4

Mar 2010

52.6 52.4 56.5

Apr 2010

52.3 52.1 56.5

May 2010

52.3 52.1 56.5

Jun 2010

52.2 52.0 56.4

Jul 2010

51.2 51.0 56.0

Aug 2010

50.6 50.4 55.3

Sep 2010

50.3 50.1 53.9

Oct 2010

49.5 49.3 53.9

Nov 2010

49.8 49.6 54.2

Dec 2010

49.7 49.6 54.1

Jan 2011

49.1 48.9 53.0

Feb 2011

49.1 48.9 53.0

Mar 2011

49.1 48.9 53.0

Apr 2011

48.9 48.7 52.9

May 2011

49.0 48.7 53.0

Jun 2011

48.7 48.4 52.7

Jul 2011

47.6 47.3 51.5

Aug 2011

47.7 47.4 51.6

Sep 2011

47.7 47.4 51.6

Oct 2011

47.3 47.1 51.2

Nov 2011

47.2 46.9 51.1

Dec 2011

47.2 47.0 51.1

Jan 2012

47.1 46.6 51.1

Feb 2012

47.1 46.6 51.0

Mar 2012

47.1 46.6 51.0

Apr 2012

47.0 46.5 51.0

May 2012

47.0 46.5 51.0

Jun 2012

46.7 46.2 50.7

Jul 2012

45.9 45.8 50.7

Aug 2012

45.6 45.5 50.4

Sep 2012

45.6 45.6 50.5

Oct 2012

45.1 45.0 50.4

Nov 2012

44.8 44.7 50.0

Dec 2012

44.8 44.7 49.9

Jan 2013

44.6 44.5 49.8

Feb 2013

44.6 44.5 49.7

Mar 2013

43.6 43.5 48.7

Apr 2013

43.5 43.4 48.7

May 2013

43.5 43.4 48.7

Jun 2013

43.5 43.4 48.6

Jul 2013

43.8 43.6 48.6

Aug 2013

43.8 43.6 48.6

Sep 2013

43.8 43.6 48.6

Oct 2013

43.6 43.4 48.6

Nov 2013

43.5 43.3 48.5

Dec 2013

43.5 43.3 48.4

Jan 2014

41.7 41.6 46.8

Feb 2014

41.7 41.6 46.8

Mar 2014

41.8 41.6 46.8

Apr 2014

41.2 41.0 46.4

May 2014

41.2 41.0 46.4

Jun 2014

41.2 41.0 46.4

Jul 2014

41.2 41.1 46.3

Aug 2014

41.2 41.1 46.3

Sep 2014

41.1 41.0 46.3

Oct 2014

41.0 41.0 46.3

Nov 2014

41.0 41.0 46.3

Dec 2014

41.0 41.0 46.3

Jan 2015

40.7 40.6 46.3

Feb 2015

40.7 40.6 46.3

Mar 2015

40.7 40.6 46.1

Note: BIC = Bayesian information criterion, MSE = mean squared error, and PPI = Producer Price Index.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.