Figure 5. Percentage of TBI rates that overestimate or underestimate CPI-U inflation rates for maturity horizons ranging from 6 months to 15 years, July 2003–January 2018
Maturity horizon (years) Percentage of overestimates Percentage of underestimates

0.5

34.29 65.71

1.0

30.77 69.23

1.5

38.65 61.35

2.0

36.94 63.06

2.5

43.71 56.29

3.0

47.59 52.41

3.5

51.08 48.92

4.0

56.39 43.61

4.5

52.76 47.24

5.0

57.85 42.15

5.5

59.13 40.87

6.0

62.39 37.61

6.5

62.14 37.86

7.0

65.98 34.02

7.5

69.23 30.77

8.0

70.59 29.41

8.5

69.62 30.38

9.0

75.34 24.66

9.5

80.60 19.40

10.0

85.25 14.75

10.5

83.64 16.36

11.0

85.71 14.29

11.5

86.05 13.95

12.0

89.19 10.81

12.5

87.10 12.90

13.0

88.00 12.00

13.5

89.47 10.53

14.0

84.62 15.38

14.5

71.43 28.57

15.0

100.00 0.00

Note: TBI = Treasury Breakeven Inflation; CPI-U = Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Department of the Treasury.