March 05, 2012
During the 2010–2020 period, real output is projected to increase from $23.2 trillion to $30.9 trillion (in chain-weighted 2005 dollars), an annual growth rate of 2.9 percent.
The majority of output growth is projected to come from the service-providing sectors. Real output in the health care and social assistance sector is projected to grow at the same rate as the overall rate of the economy, 2.9 percent, to reach $2.0 trillion in 2020.
Strong demand for professional and business services is expected to increase real output in this sector from $2.4 trillion to $3.4 trillion, or 3.7 percent per year, over the 2010–2020 period. The information sector is projected to grow at 4.7 percent per year in real output, the fastest growth among all major sectors, increasing by $696.6 billion, to reach $1.9 trillion by 2020.
Real output in the financial activities sector is projected to rise from $3.3 trillion in 2010 to nearly $4.6 trillion in 2020, an increase of almost $1.3 trillion.
The federal government is expected to be the only sector to experience a decrease in real output over the 2010–2020 period, with real output expected to fall by $73.2 billion, from $1.0 trillion in 2010 to $938.9 billion in 2020.
Manufacturing is the dominant industry within the goods-producing sectors and is expected to experience an increase in real output from $4.4 trillion to $5.7 trillion, a 2.8-percent annual increase, over the 2010–2020 period. The construction sector is projected to have the fastest real output growth rate, 3.8 percent per year, among the goods-producing sectors.
These projections are from the Employment Projections program. To learn more, see "Industry employment and output projections to 2020", by Richard Henderson, Monthly Labor Review, January 2012.