Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Elizabeth Weber Handwerker Author-Name-First: Elizabeth Weber Author-Name-Last: Handwerker Author-Name: Lowell G. Mason Author-Name-First: Lowell G. Author-Name-Last: Mason Title: What Happens to the Employers Involved in Mass Layoffs? Abstract: We apply the empirical framework of the displaced worker literature to the study of outcomes for displacing employers. Long-term patterns of employment, average wages, and closure probabilities before and after mass layoffs vary by the reason for layoffs, the industry of employers, employer age, and the period in which the layoff took place. Employers with mass layoffs during the Great Recession and the recovery that has followed have different patterns of employment levels and closure probabilities than employers with layoffs in previous periods. These differences are not explained by changes in the observable characteristics of employers and layoffs. Creation-Date: 2014 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2014/pdf/ec140010.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 470 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:470 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Charles Courtemanche Author-Name-First: Charles Author-Name-Last: Courtemanche Author-Name: Joshua C. Pinkston Author-Name-First: Joshua C. Author-Name-Last: Pinkston Author-Name: Jay Stewart Author-Name-First: Jay Author-Name-Last: Stewart Title: Adjusting Body Mass for Measurement Error with Invalid Validation Data Abstract: We propose a new method for using validation data to correct self-reported weight and height in surveys that do not weigh and measure respondents. The standard correction from prior research regresses actual measures on reported values using an external validation dataset, and then uses the estimated coefficients to predict actual measures in the primary dataset. This approach requires the strong assumption that the expectations of actual weight and height conditional on the reported values are the same in both datasets. In contrast, we use percentile ranks rather than levels of reported weight and height. Our approach requires the much weaker assumption that the conditional expectations of actual measures are increasing in reported values in both samples, making our correction more robust to differences in measurement error across surveys. We then examine three nationally representative datasets and confirm that misreporting is sensitive to differences in survey context such as data collection mode. When we compare predicted BMI distributions using the two approaches, we find that the standard correction is biased by differences in misreporting while our correction is not. Finally, we present several examples that demonstrate the potential importance of our correction for future econometric analyses and estimates of obesity rates. Creation-Date: 2014 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2014/pdf/ec140020.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 471 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:471 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kevin E. Cahill Author-Name-First: Kevin E. Author-Name-Last: Cahill Author-Name: Michael D. Giandrea Author-Name-First: Michael D. Author-Name-Last: Giandrea Author-Name: Joseph F. Quinn Author-Name-First: Joseph F. Author-Name-Last: Quinn Title: The Impact of Hours Flexibility on Career Employment, Bridge Jobs, and the Timing of Retirement Abstract: To what extent does hours flexibility in career employment impact the retirement process? Workplace flexibility policies have the potential to improve both the welfare of employees and the business outcomes of employers. These policies, and hours flexibility in particular for older Americans, have also been touted as a way to reduce turnover. For older Americans, reductions in turnover could mean more years in career employment, fewer years in bridge employment, and little or no impact on the timing of retirement. Alternatively, hours flexibility in career employment could lead to longer working lives and delayed retirements. The distinction between the two outcomes is important if hours flexibility policies, such as phased retirement, are to be considered an option for alleviating the strains of an aging society. This paper describes how hours flexibility in career employment impacts the retirement patterns of older Americans. We use data on three cohorts of older Americans from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a large nationally-representative dataset that began in 1992. We explore the extent to which hours flexibility arrangements are available and utilized in career employment and explore the extent to which such arrangements impact job transitions later in life. We find that bridge job prevalence is higher among those with access to hours flexibility in career employment compared to those without hours flexibility. Further, while we find mixed evidence that hours flexibility extends time in career employment, we do find that hours flexibility in career employment is associated with longer tenure on bridge jobs. Taken together these results suggest that hours flexibility in career employment is associated with extended work lives, particularly in post-career employment. Creation-Date: 2014 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2014/pdf/ec140030.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 472 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:472 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: William P. Cleveland Author-Name-First: William P. Author-Name-Last: Cleveland Author-Name: Thomas D. Evans Author-Name-First: Thomas D. Author-Name-Last: Evans Author-Name: Stuart Scott Author-Name-First: Stuart Author-Name-Last: Scott Title: Weekly Seasonal Adjustment - A Locally-weighted Regression Approach Abstract: Weekly series have characteristics which make seasonal adjustment inaccessible or unsatisfactory with most available software. These series are typically compiled for weeks ending on a given day of the week, Saturday in the application presented here. The number of Saturday’s within a year can be either 52 or 53 and their position varies from year to year. These features violate the basic periodic time series structure assumed by X-12-ARIMA (soon to be X-13ARIMA-SEATS), TRAMO/SEATS, and STAMP. A locally-weighted least squares procedure is suggested here, which can be used with a weekly design matrix having 52 or 53 observations in a year. The procedure starts from the regression method in Pierce, Grupe, and Cleveland (1984), which assumes a deterministic seasonal component. The method is currently being applied at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Canada. Creation-Date: 2014 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2014/pdf/ec140040.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 473 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:473 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia Author-Name-First: Sabrina Wulff Author-Name-Last: Pabilonia Title: The Effects of the Great Recession on Teenagers’ Risky Health Behaviors and Time Use Abstract: This paper uses individual-level data from both the 2003-2011 American Time Use Survey and Youth Risk Behavior Survey and state-level unemployment rates to examine the effects of the Great Recession on teenagers’ activities. I present results by gender and gender by race/ethnicity. Over the period, I find changes in sexual activity for males associated with changes in time spent with parents; but results vary significantly by race. In addition, Hispanic males gained weight during the recession, due perhaps to a decrease in time spent playing sports. Hispanic females, on the other hand, made greater educational investments while spending less time working. All females significantly decreased TV viewing during the Great Recession. However, there were signs that female teenagers were stressed as they slept less and were more likely to smoke regularly. Creation-Date: 2014 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2014/pdf/ec140050.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 474 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:474 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Susan G. Powers Author-Name-First: Susan G. Author-Name-Last: Powers Title: Measuring Education Output in Elementary and Secondary Schools: An Exploratory Analysis Abstract: Education services in the United States are provided by a mixture of public and private organizations and include both non-profit and for-profit entities. Measuring education output evokes all of the usual measurement issues arising with service outputs, further complicated by production in nonmarket situations. This paper presents exploratory research towards developing a measure of education output for NAICS 61, Education Services: NAICS 611110, Elementary and Secondary Schools. Input-based output measures, often used to capture services produced in a nonmarket setting, are of limited value. These measures are not appropriate for use in measuring productivity, since the output growth rate is based on the related input growth rates. This paper presents and compares alternative physical volume based measures for elementary and secondary school education services. Using data on the number of students enrolled in public schools and private schools and national test scores, both unadjusted and quality adjusted education output measures for “all students“ are constructed. Heterogeneous output measures accounting for differences in disabled and non-disabled public school student education services and test scores are also constructed and compared. In addition, measures explicitly including selected non-instructional services (food and transportation services) are constructed and compared for both the “all students“ and “disabled/non-disabled“ measures. Creation-Date: 2014 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2014/pdf/ec140060.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 475 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:475 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Maury Gittleman Author-Name-First: Maury Author-Name-Last: Gittleman Author-Name: Mark A. Klee Author-Name-First: Mark A. Author-Name-Last: Klee Author-Name: Morris M. Kleiner Author-Name-First: Morris M. Author-Name-Last: Kleiner Title: Analyzing the Labor Market Outcomes of Occupational Licensing Abstract: Recent assessments of occupational licensing have shown varying effects of the institution on labor market outcomes. This study revisits the relationship between occupational licensing and labor market outcomes by analyzing a new topical module to the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Relative to previously available data, the topical module offers more detailed information on occupational licensing from government, with a larger sample size and access to a richer set of person-level characteristics. We exploit this larger and more detailed dataset to examine the labor market outcomes of occupational licensing and how workers obtain these licenses from government. More specifically, we analyze whether there is evidence of a licensing wage premium, and how this premium varies with aspects of the regulatory regime such as the requirements to obtain a license or certification and the level of government oversight. After controlling for observable heterogeneity, including occupational status, those with a license earn higher pay, are more likely to be employed, and have a higher probability of retirement and pension plan offers. Creation-Date: 2014 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2014/pdf/ec140070.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 476 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:476 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Keenan Dworak-Fisher Author-Name-First: Keenan Author-Name-Last: Dworak-Fisher Title: Linked Incidence-Detail Outputs for Defined Contributions using the NCS Abstract: This paper describes a methodology for combining the data sets underlying the National Compensation Survey (NCS) publications reporting on: a) the incidence of benefits among workers and b) the detailed provisions of the benefits in which workers participate. The combination of these datasets allows the construction of new statistics that estimate the extent to which workers have access to benefit plans with specific attributes, as well as the extent to which they take up such plans. The methodology is applied to Defined Contribution retirement plans offered to private industry workers in 2008. Creation-Date: 2014 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2014/pdf/ec140080.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 477 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:477 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Leo Sveikauskas Author-Name-First: Leo Author-Name-Last: Sveikauskas Author-Name: Samuel Rowe Author-Name-First: Samuel Author-Name-Last: Rowe Author-Name: James Mildenberger Author-Name-First: James Author-Name-Last: Mildenberger Author-Name: Jennifer Price Author-Name-First: Jennifer Author-Name-Last: Price Author-Name: Arthur Young Author-Name-First: Arthur Author-Name-Last: Young Title: Productivity Growth in Construction Abstract: Measuring productivity growth in construction is especially difficult due to the nature of production in the industry and the limitations of available data. In particular, the price indexes used to deflate output are a major problem because reliable deflators are sparse and the available data suggest productivity has declined for many decades, which is somewhat difficult to believe. This paper first reviews Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates of productivity growth in the overall construction sector. Second, we develop measures of labor productivity growth in three industries in construction where reliable output deflators already exist: single and multiple family residential construction from 1987 to 2011, and the construction of highways, streets, and bridges from 2002 to 2011. These data, which currently cover almost one quarter of construction output, show no sign of any sustained productivity decline. Productivity growth continues to be positive when subcontractors are included as labor input. On the other hand, the new PPIs increase more rapidly than previous unreliable output deflators did; such evidence suggests that negative long-term productivity trends are more likely than the current long-term time series data suggest. Third, we analyze labor shifts among 31 industries in construction. Previous work (Allen, 1985) has shown that, from 1968 to 1978, shifts from high to low productivity industries reduced productivity in construction by 0.46 percent a year. Our results indicate that labor shifts still cause a considerable decline in productivity. Over the last two decades, shifts across industries reduced productivity by approximately 0.26 percent a year. However, most of the productivity decline, especially between 1997 and 2007, still remains to be explained. Fourth, we present evidence that land use regulation, measured in each state in each year, has a small but statistically significant negative effect on productivity growth in construction. The evidence also indicates that the regulation share of total costs, the amount by which regulation increases construction costs, is 3.7 percent. However, we estimate that increases in regulation reduced productivity growth in construction by only 0.1 percent a year. Creation-Date: 2014 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2014/pdf/ec140090.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 478 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:478