Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Matthew Dey Author-Name-First: Matthew Author-Name-Last: Dey Author-Name: Susan H. Houseman Author-Name-First: Susan H. Author-Name-Last: Houseman Author-Name: Anne E. Polivka Author-Name-First: Anne E. Author-Name-Last: Polivka Title: Manufacturers’ Outsourcing to Temporary Help Services: A Research Update Abstract: U.S. manufacturers make extensive use of temporary help services (THS). Although temporary help workers typically work at the client’s worksite, side-by-side direct-hire employees, they are legally the employees of the temporary help agencies and are counted in the temporary help industry in official employment statistics. Information on the number of temporary help workers, along with other types of contract workers, assigned to manufacturing and other industries is not systematically collected. In earlier work, we used data from several BLS household and establishment surveys to estimate the number of temporary help workers assigned to manufacturing from 1989 to 2009. We also estimated the effects of manufacturers’ outsourcing to temporary help services on measured labor productivity in that sector. This research brief updates selected estimates in that paper through 2015. The updated estimates indicate that temporary help workers assigned to manufacturing, expressed as a percent of manufacturing direct-hire employees, increased over the period, although it contracted during the last recession and expanded during the ensuing expansion. Reflecting these changes, the estimates also demonstrate that by not accounting for temporary help workers assigned to manufacturing, the official BLS measures of manufacturing labor productivity understate labor productivity growth during the recession and overstate labor productivity growth during the recovery. Our estimates suggest that, on net, the growth in manufacturing labor productivity was inflated over the 2007 to 2015 period. Creation-Date: 2017 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2017/pdf/ec170010.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 493 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:493 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Brian Adams Author-Name-First: Brian Author-Name-Last: Adams Title: Zone Pricing in Retail Oligopoly Abstract: We quantify the welfare effects of zone pricing, or setting common prices across distinct markets, in retail oligopoly. Although monopolists can only increase profits by price discriminating, this need not be true when firms face competition. With novel data covering the retail home improvement industry, we find that Home Depot would benefit from finer pricing but that Lowe’s would prefer coarser pricing. The use of zone pricing softens competition in markets where firms compete, but it shields consumers from higher prices in markets where firms might otherwise exercise market power. Overall, zone pricing produces higher consumer surplus than finer pricing discrimination does. Creation-Date: 2017 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2017/pdf/ec170020.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 494 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:494 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Michael J. Handel Author-Name-First: Michael J. Author-Name-Last: Handel Title: Changing Educational Profiles of Detailed Occupations, 1990-2001 Abstract: The absence of repeated direct measures of job skill requirements, such as a fully updated edition of the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT), creates problems for anyone interested in understanding whether, how much, and how fast the demand for cognitive skills in the workplace has grown over time. Many studies have merged cross-sectional skill scores for detailed occupations from the DOT or O*NET with time series of occupational employment shares, but this fails to capture any within-occupation changes in job requirements. This paper considers the utility of using workers’ personal education as a time-varying measure of occupational skill requirements. Trends in educational composition within detailed occupations for 1990-2001 are examined using very large sample data. Shift-share analyses decompose the total change in workforce education into components attributable to changes in occupational employment shares and in education levels within occupations. Because occupations are often characterized in terms of modal education, the extent of educational heterogeneity within occupations is examined. Limitations of workers’ personal education as a measure of job complexity, the need for repeated direct measures of job requirements, and implications for BLS data programs are discussed. Creation-Date: 2017 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2017/pdf/ec170030.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 495 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:495 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Matthew Dey Author-Name-First: Matthew Author-Name-Last: Dey Author-Name: Mark A. Loewenstein Author-Name-First: Mark A. Author-Name-Last: Loewenstein Title: Quarterly Benchmarking for the Current Employment Survey Abstract: This paper proposes a quarterly benchmarking procedure for the Current Employment Survey (CES) that explicitly corrects for differences in seasonality between the CES and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Abstracting from seasonal adjustment issues, we show analytically that the proposed procedure yields improved estimates of March employment. This is in spite of the fact that revisions in various quarters are likely to be opposite signed. More frequent benchmarking is especially advantageous when CES errors are correlated over time, as tends to happen at turning points in the business cycle. The March revision is generally not a good measure of monthly errors in the CES. A small March revision does not in and of itself imply small monthly errors. The performance of the proposed quarterly benchmarking procedure depends on the variance of the CES estimator, potential errors in the QCEW, and on how well the seasonal factors in the CES and QCEW are estimated. Simulations show that the variance of the proposed estimator is smaller than that of the CES under the plausible assumption that errors in the QCEW are relatively small compared to errors in the CES. The larger the errors in the CES, the better is the relative performance of the proposed quarterly benchmark estimator even accounting for the fact that seasonal factors will be estimated less precisely. Creation-Date: 2017 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2017/pdf/ec170040.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 496 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:496 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Robert S. Martin Author-Name-First: Robert S. Author-Name-Last: Martin Title: Estimation of Average Marginal Effects in Multiplicative Unobserved Effects Panel Models Abstract: In multiplicative unobserved efffects panel models for nonnegative dependent variables, estimation of average marginal effects would seem problematic with a large cross section and few time periods due to the incidental parameters problem. While fixed effects Poisson consistently estimates the slope parameters of the conditional mean function, marginal effects generally depend on the unobserved heterogeneity. However, I show that a class of fixed effects averages is consistent and asymptotically normal with only the cross section growing. This implies researchers can estimate average treatment effects in levels as opposed to settling for average proportional effects. Creation-Date: 2017 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2017/pdf/ec170050.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 497 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:497 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gregory Kurtzon Author-Name-First: Gregory Author-Name-Last: Kurtzon Title: How Much Does Formula vs. Chaining Matter for a Cost-of-Living Index? The CPI-U vs. the C-CPI-U Abstract: A large economics literature has debated the best formula to estimate a cost-of-living index (COLI) - this study shows that formula may not be relevant for many purposes for an index chained at a monthly frequency if current weight information is properly used. The large majority of the difference between the levels of the CPI-U and the generally lower C-CPI- U (a COLI) is due to the CPI-U weights holding quantities constant over long periods, rather than the difference in formula assumptions. A new method to avoid chain drift with long term price relatives is developed to effectively approximate a COLI. Creation-Date: 2017 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2017/pdf/ec170060.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 498 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:498 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jeffrey A. Groen Author-Name-First: Jeffrey A. Author-Name-Last: Groen Author-Name: Mark J. Kutzbach Author-Name-First: Mark J. Author-Name-Last: Kutzbach Author-Name: Anne E. Polivka Author-Name-First: Anne E. Author-Name-Last: Polivka Title: Storms and Jobs: The Effect of Hurricanes on Individuals’ Employment and Earnings over the Long Term Abstract: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2005, destroying homes and businesses and causing mass evacuations. Using data that tracks workers over nine years, we estimate models that compare the evolution of earnings for workers who resided in storm affected areas with those who resided in suitable control counties. We find a modestly negative average treatment effect in the year after the storms but a positive effect on earnings starting in the third year. We provide evidence that the long-term earnings gains resulted from wage growth in the affected areas, especially in industry sectors related to rebuilding. Creation-Date: 2017 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2017/pdf/ec170070.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 499 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:499 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Harley Frazis Author-Name-First: Harley Author-Name-Last: Frazis Author-Name: Mark A. Loewenstein Author-Name-First: Mark A. Author-Name-Last: Loewenstein Title: Training and Jobs Across the Career: An Empirical Investigation Abstract: Using the NLSY79, this paper examines the pattern of on-the-job training over the career - a prominent topic in the early human capital literature, but the subject of little empirical investigation. In addition to containing a comprehensive record of formal training, employment experience, and employers, the NLSY79 has data on informal training and positions within firms for some years, allowing one to analyze the relationship of training not just to experience, but to job mobility between and within firms. Training declines slightly in the early career, but it is difficult to disentangle the influence of experience and age. Both formal and informal training decline steeply with position tenure and show relatively weak results for employer tenure and experience once position tenure is accounted for. Creation-Date: 2017 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2017/pdf/ec170080.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 500 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:500