Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Brian Adams Author-Name-First: Brian Author-Name-Last: Adams Author-Name: Hyunchul Kim Author-Name-First: Hyunchul Author-Name-Last: Kim Title: Early Adopters of New Supermarket Products Abstract: New goods and expanding product variety are thought to provide enormous welfare gains. New products can infuence the pricing of competing products, but often the most important way that new products improve the welfare is through their direct consumption value. The demographic profile of the buyers of new goods suggests those welfare gains are unequally distributed. For supermarket products in the US, expenditures on new goods are disproportionately concentrated among high earners and younger consumers. Creation-Date: 2018 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2018/pdf/ec180010.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 501 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:501 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Do Won Kwak Author-Name-First: Do Won Author-Name-Last: Kwak Author-Name: Robert S. Martin Author-Name-First: Robert S. Author-Name-Last: Martin Author-Name: Jeffrey M. Wooldridge Author-Name-First: Jeffrey M. Author-Name-Last: Wooldridge Title: The Robustness of Conditional Logit for Binary Response Panel Data Models with Serial Correlation Abstract: This paper examines the conditional logit estimator for binary panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity. A key assumption used to derive the conditional logit estimator is conditional serial independence (CI), which is problematic when the underlying innovations are serially correlated. A Monte Carlo experiment suggests that the conditional logit estimator is not robust to violation of the CI assumption. We find that higher persistence and smaller time dimension both increase the magnitude of the bias in slope parameter estimates. We also compare conditional logit to unconditional logit and pooled correlated random effects logit. Creation-Date: 2018 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2018/pdf/ec180020.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 502 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:502 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Robert S. Martin Author-Name-First: Robert S. Author-Name-Last: Martin Title: Exponential Panel Models with Coefficient Heterogeneity Abstract: If heterogeneous slopes are ignored in exponential panel models, fixed effects Poisson may not estimate any quantity of interest. Existing estimation methods often involve treating only a small subset of the slopes as "random effects" and integrating from the likelihood, increasing computational difficulty. I propose a test to detect slope heterogeneity that, unlike the traditional approach, does not amount to testing for information matrix equality. Additionally, I present a correlated random coefficients approach to identification which allows for estimation of the coefficient means and average partial effects. I test these proposed methods using a Monte Carlo experiment and apply them to the patent-R&D relationship for U.S. manufacturing firms. Creation-Date: 2018 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2018/pdf/ec180030.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 503 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:503 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Stephen V. Burks Author-Name-First: Stephen V. Author-Name-Last: Burks Author-Name: Kristen Monaco Author-Name-First: Kristen Author-Name-Last: Monaco Title: Is the U.S. Labor Market for Truck Drivers Broken? Abstract: The US trucking industry trade press often portrays the US labor market for truck drivers as not working, citing persistent driver shortages and high levels of firm-level turnover, and predicting significant resulting constraints on the supply of motor freight services. We investigate the truck driver labor market using three techniques. First, using data from the Occupational Employment Statistics of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we delineate the structure of the driver workforce. Second, from the same source we find that the trucking labor market has displayed some characteristics of a “tight“ labor market since 2003: rising nominal wages, stable/growing employment, and lower rates of unemployment than other blue collar jobs. Third, using data from the Current Population Survey we describe the occupations and industries from which drivers come and to which drivers go, when they change occupations, and statistically analyze these entries and exits. We find relatively high rates of occupational attachment among drivers, and importantly, we also find that truck drivers respond in the expected manner to differences in earnings and hours across occupations. Finally, we point out that the issues discussed by the industry are concentrated in one segment of the overall market, that for drivers in long distance truckload (TL) motor freight. These findings, taken together, suggest a more nuanced view of this labor market. The market as a whole appears to work as well as any other blue-collar labor market, and while the truck driver market tends to be “tight,“ there do not appear to be any special constraints preventing entry into (or exit from) the occupation. There is thus no reason to think that driver supply should fail to respond to price signals in the standard way, given sufficient time. Creation-Date: 2018 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2018/pdf/ec180040.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 504 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:504 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Lucy P. Eldridge Author-Name-First: Lucy P. Author-Name-Last: Eldridge Author-Name: Susan G. Powers Author-Name-First: Susan G. Author-Name-Last: Powers Title: Imported Inputs to U.S. Production and Productivity: Two decades of Evidence Abstract: Imports have increased in importance in U.S. production over the past 2 decades. From 1997-2015 imports have grown from 8 to 10 percent of all intermediate inputs - materials, services and energy - used by U.S. firms to produce goods and services. The substitution of imported inputs for domestically produced intermediate inputs or U.S. labor– known as offshoring or offshoring outsourcing – has raised questions about the impact of imported inputs on US labor productivity and economic performance. The June 2010 Monthly Labor Review article “Effects of imported intermediate inputs on productivity,“ by Lucy P. Eldridge and Michael J. Harper developed a framework for estimating the effects of imported intermediate inputs on U.S. labor productivity. In that study, the production model used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to calculate multifactor productivity measures was expanded to treat imported intermediate inputs as an input to production in the U.S. private business sector, rather than as a subtraction from output.1 This model allows the analysis of offshoring. In addition, the Eldridge-Harper study isolated imported inputs used by the manufacturing sector to assess their impact on productivity. This article updates the earlier estimates for 1997-2006, extending the analysis through 2015 and showing that imports continue to be an important contributor to U.S. production. Creation-Date: 2018 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2018/pdf/ec180050.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 505 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:505 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Xavier Jaravel Author-Name-First: Xavier Author-Name-Last: Jaravel Author-Name: Erick Sager Author-Name-First: Erick Author-Name-Last: Sager Title: What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models Abstract: We estimate the impact of trade with China on U.S. consumer prices and use this evidence to discipline quantitative trade models. Using comprehensive price data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and two complementary identification strategies from Pierce and Schott (2016) and Autor et al. (2014), we find that trade with China had a large impact on U.S. prices. Between 2000 and 2007, a one percentage point increase in Chinese import penetration in a given industry led to a three percentage point fall in the Consumer Price Index in that industry. This effect is large but plausible; abstracting from GE effects and benchmarking our estimates against those of Autor et al. (2013), our results imply that increased Chinese import penetration generated benefits to U.S. consumers through lower prices equal to $101,250 per lost manufacturing job, or a cumulative 1.97% fall in the aggregate U.S. CPI between 2000 and 2007. These price effects are one order of magnitude larger than in the class of trade models nested by Arkolakis et al. (2012). In contrast with these models, we find that (i) the price response of pre-existing domestic products drives the overall price effects; (ii) market concentration is a key predictor of the magnitude of the price response. Using a simple model, we show that these patterns can be explained by a fall in markups in response to increased import competition. These results indicate that the pro-competitive effects of trade have important implications for inflation and consumer welfare. Creation-Date: 2018 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2018/pdf/ec180060.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 506 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:506 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: William B. Peterman Author-Name-First: William B. Author-Name-Last: Peterman Author-Name: Erick Sager Author-Name-First: Erick Author-Name-Last: Sager Title: Optimal Public Debt with Life Cycle Motives Abstract: This paper shows that accounting for life cycle behavior substantially affects optimal public debt in the presence of incomplete markets. In a calibrated model, we find that the life cycle changes optimal policy from public debt equal to 24% of output to public savings equal to 61% of output because it introduces two features that are observed in the data: (i) young individuals have little wealth and accumulate savings during their lifetimes, and (ii) average consumption and hours worked vary over individuals’ lifetimes. Public debt affects welfare by crowding out productive capital and increasing the interest rate, which encourages more self-insurance against labor market risk through private saving. Without the life cycle, the welfare benefits of public debt are larger since individuals simply have more wealth on average. With the life cycle, the welfare benefit is smaller because even though public debt leads to more private savings, individuals must accumulate this savings over their lifetimes. Instead, public savings improves welfare by yielding a lower interest rate that encourages a flatter allocation of consumption and leisure over individuals’ lifetimes. Additionally, the life cycle makes optimal policy far less sensitive to wealth inequality because wealth is now correlated not only with income, but also with age. Creation-Date: 2018 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2018/pdf/ec180070.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 507 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:507 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Erick Sager Author-Name-First: Erick Author-Name-Last: Sager Author-Name: Olga A. Timoshenko Author-Name-First: Olga A. Author-Name-Last: Timoshenko Title: The Double EMG Distribution and Trade Elasticities Abstract: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2018/ec180080.htm Creation-Date: 2018 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2018/pdf/ec180080.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 508 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:508 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Erick Sager Author-Name-First: Erick Author-Name-Last: Sager Author-Name: Olga A. Timoshenko Author-Name-First: Olga A. Author-Name-Last: Timoshenko Title: Uncertainty and Trade Elasticities Abstract: Using Brazilian export data that, unlike many trade data sets, keep a full record of small export sales, this paper reconsiders trade elasticities and the welfare gains from trade. Using the Brazilian data, this paper provides novel evidence on the properties of the distributions of log-export sales and shows that the Double Exponentially Modified Gaussian (EMG) distribution parsimoniously captures these properties. Using the Double EMG distribution in a standard monopolistic competition model of trade, this paper demonstrates that data truncation, that is prevalent in many data sets, leads to an upward bias in measuring the partial elasticity of trade with respect to variable trade costs. This bias subsequently leads to the underestimation of the gains from trade by 1% to 9% depending on the extent of data truncation, a range that is commensurate with typical economic growth and large booms. Creation-Date: 2018 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2018/pdf/ec180090.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 509 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:509 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Thesia I. Garner Author-Name-First: Thesia I. Author-Name-Last: Garner Author-Name: Marisa Gudrais Author-Name-First: Marisa Author-Name-Last: Gudrais Title: Alternative Poverty Measurement for the U.S.: Focus on Supplemental Poverty Measure Thresholds Abstract: Guidelines to produce a new supplementary poverty measure for the U.S. were released to the public in early 2010 and were presented as Observations from the Interagency Technical Working Group on Developing a Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM). Since that time, research has been ongoing in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Census Bureau to produce and improve upon the initial measure. SPM statistics, released by the U.S. Census Bureau since 2011, are based on resources that account for federal in-kind (noncash) benefits for food, rent, and utilities. However, the SPM thresholds to which these resources are compared are primarily based on out-of-pocket spending on food, clothing, shelter, and utilities (FCSU). A guideline in the 2010 document was that thresholds and resources would be defined consistently. By accounting for in-kind benefits in thresholds, a consistent SPM results. Census Bureau Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement data are the basis of SPM resources while the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey Interview data are the basis of the thresholds. This research has two goals: (1) to describe the methods currently used to produce the SPM thresholds, showing thresholds for 2005-2015; and (2) to present ongoing research designed to improve SPM thresholds by including the value of in-kind benefits along with FCSU expenditures. These latter thresholds are produced for 2014 only. In-kind benefit based SPM thresholds are statistically higher than SPM thresholds that are based on expenditures only for all three housing tenure groups: owners with mortgages, renters, and owners without mortgages. Creation-Date: 2018 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2018/pdf/ec180100.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 510 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:510