Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Angela Daley Author-Name-First: Angela Author-Name-Last: Daley Author-Name: Thesia I. Garner Author-Name-First: Thesia I. Author-Name-Last: Garner Author-Name: Shelley Phipps Author-Name-First: Shelley Author-Name-Last: Phipps Author-Name: Eva Sierminska Author-Name-First: Eva Author-Name-Last: Sierminska Title: Differences across Place and Time in Household Expenditure Patterns: Implications for the Estimation of Equivalence Scales Abstract: Equivalence scales are often used to adjust household income for differences in characteristics that affect needs. For example, a family of two is assumed to need more income than a single person, but not double due to economies of scale in consumption. However, in comparing economic well-being across countries and/or time, we ask whether it is appropriate to use the same equivalence scale if consumption expenditure patterns differ? We estimate equivalence scales for eight countries with data ranging from 1999 to 2012, using the same Engel approach in all cases. We find considerable variation in economies of scale across countries and some increases over time. Notably, we find that economies of scale are generally larger than those implied by the ‘square root of household size’ equivalence scale. Our results have important implications when deciding whether to use a common equivalence scale in comparisons of economic well-being across place and time. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200010.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 520 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:520 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Charles Courtemanche Author-Name-First: Charles Author-Name-Last: Courtemanche Author-Name: Joshua C. Pinkston Author-Name-First: Joshua C. Author-Name-Last: Pinkston Author-Name: Jay Stewart Author-Name-First: Jay Author-Name-Last: Stewart Title: Time Spent Exercising and Obesity: An Application of Lewbel’s Instrumental Variables Method Abstract: This paper examines the role physical activity plays in determining body mass using data from the American Time Use Survey. Our work is the first to address the measurement error that arises when time use during a single day—rather than average daily time use over an extended period—is used as an explanatory variable. We show that failing to account for day-to-day variation in activities results in the effects of time use on a typical day being understated. Furthermore, we account for the possibility that physical activity and body mass are jointly determined by implementing Lewbel’s instrumental variables estimator that exploits first-stage heteroskedasticity rather than traditional exclusion restrictions. Our results suggest that, on average, physical activity reduces body mass by less than would be predicted by simple calorie expenditure-to-weight formulas, implying compensatory behavior such as increased caloric intake. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200020.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 521 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:521 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Elizabeth Weber Handwerker Author-Name-First: Elizabeth Author-Name-Last: Weber Handwerker Title: Outsourcing, Occupationally Homogeneous Employers, and Growing Wage Inequality in the United States Abstract: This paper develops measures of the occupational homogeneity of employers as indicators of outsourcing. Findings are threefold. First, workers—particularly those in low-wage occupations who worked in smaller establishments—saw their employing establishments become more occupationally homogeneous during 2004-2019. Second, wages are strongly related to occupational homogeneity, particularly for workers in low-wage occupations. Third, changes in the occupational homogeneity of workplaces are an important contributor to growing wage inequality among workers over the first half of this period. The growing separation of workers in low-wage occupations into different employers from workers in high-wage occupations is an important part of wage inequality growth. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200030.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 522 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:522 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Harley Frazis Author-Name-First: Harley Author-Name-Last: Frazis Title: Who Telecommutes? Where is the Time Saved Spent? Abstract: The American Time Use Survey has shown a trend toward increased market work at home from its inception in 2003 to the present. This paper examines one possible source of this trend, paid telecommuting, using the 2017-18 ATUS module on Leave and Job Flexibilities. I analyze the relation between work at home and paid telework, produce evidence on trends in telecommuting, examine the characteristics of telecommuters, and estimate where the time saved by not commuting to a workplace is spent. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200050.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 523 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:523 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Dalton Author-Name-First: Michael Author-Name-Last: Dalton Title: Labor Market Effects of Local Spread of COVID-19 Abstract: This paper explores the short-term local labor market impact of the spread of COVID-19 in the United States, using the Current Employment Statistics survey and the Current Population Survey microdata. It uses the longitudinal aspect of both these surveys to measure changes in employment for business establishments and household members. I match the survey respondent to the measured local incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases, using confidential information on county of location, to estimate the impact of the local incidence of the virus, after controlling for multiple measures of government intervention. I find the greatest declines in employment in counties with higher incidence of COVID-19. These effects vary by industry: leisure / hospitality and other services have large declines in employment relative to the effect of the incidence of the virus, while the employment decline in construction and transportation and warehousing depends more on the local incidence of the virus. Finance / insurance, a very telework-friendly industry, is unaffected by the incidence of the virus. These short-term employment effects have implications for future employment patterns as government restrictions are relaxed and business owners begin to decide whether to open their businesses while the virus is still active in the United States. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200060.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 524 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:524 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Martin Author-Name-First: Robert Author-Name-Last: Martin Author-Name: Andy Sadler Author-Name-First: Andy Author-Name-Last: Sadler Author-Name: Sara Stanley Author-Name-First: Sara Author-Name-Last: Stanley Author-Name: William Thompson Author-Name-First: William Author-Name-Last: Thompson Author-Name: Jonathan Weinhagen Author-Name-First: Jonathan Author-Name-Last: Weinhagen Title: An Alternative Formula for Elementary Producer Price Indexes Abstract: We re-estimate historical U.S. Producer Price Indexes (PPI) using the geometric Young formula at the elementary level. The geometric Young has better axiomatic properties than the modified Laspeyres, and may better approximate a feasible economic target. We find in most cases, indexes that use the geometric Young escalate between 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points less each year than those that use the modified Laspeyres. However, for wholesale and retail trade, as well as some other services, the differences are much larger. As a result, using the geometric Young at the elementary level lowers the PPI for Final Demand by 0.55 percentage points per year during the study period, a magnitude larger than what has been previously found for the U.S. Consumer Price Index. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200070.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 525 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:525 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Dominic Smith Author-Name-First: Dominic Author-Name-Last: Smith Author-Name: Sergio Ocampo Author-Name-First: Sergio Author-Name-Last: Ocampo Title: The Evolution of U.S. Retail Concentration Abstract: Increases in concentration have been a salient feature of industry dynamics during the past 30 years. This trend is particularly notable in the U.S. retail sector, where large national firms have displaced small local firms. Existing work focuses on national trends, yet less is known about the dynamics of concentration in local markets and the relationship between local and national trends. We address these issues by providing a novel decomposition of the national Herfindahl-Hirschman Index into a local and a cross-market component. We measure concentration using new data on product-level revenue for all U.S. retail stores and find that despite local concentration increasing by 34 percent between 1992 and 2012, the cross-market component explains 99 percent of the rise in national concentration, reflecting the expansion of multi-market firms. We estimate an oligopoly model of retail competition and find that the increase in markups implied by rising local concentration had a modest effect on retail prices. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200080.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 526 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:526 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Trudi Renwick Author-Name-First: Trudi Author-Name-Last: Renwick Author-Name: Thesia I. Garner Author-Name-First: Thesia I. Author-Name-Last: Garner Title: Changing the Housing Share of Poverty Thresholds for the Supplemental Poverty Measure and Equivalence Scales: Does Consumer Unit Size Matter? Abstract: In producing the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) thresholds and subsequent statistics, it is assumed that all consumer units, regardless of size and composition, share the same fraction of the thresholds on housing (shelter and utilities). The implication of this assumption is that the implicit economies of scale for housing are the same as those for the thresholds as a whole. If, on the other hand, one assumes that housing expenditures are subject to greater economies of scale than the food and clothing parts of the thresholds, it would be reasonable to use a larger percent to identify the housing portion of the thresholds for smaller families. This would have two consequences for SPM poverty statistics. First, the portion of the SPM thresholds subject to the geographic adjustment would be larger for smaller families --- increasing thresholds for those who live in areas with housing costs greater than the national median and decreasing thresholds for those who live in areas with lower housing costs Second, since the values of housing subsidies in SPM resources are capped at the housing portion of the thresholds, this would increase the value of housing subsidies for some smaller consumer units and could reduce their poverty rates. In this paper we investigate the impact of varying the housing share of the SPM poverty thresholds directly by changing housing directly first and then indirectly by applying differing equivalence scales by consumer unit size. American Community Survey (ACS) and U.S. Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey (CE) data are used to explore how housing expenditures as a share of income and expenditures on food, clothing shelter and utilities (FCSU), respectively, vary by consumer unit size. Data from the CE are also used to estimate equivalence scales; these scales result in indirect adjustment to the housing shares. The Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement data are used to analyze the impact of allowing the housing share of the thresholds to vary on SPM poverty rates. Results suggest that choice of the housing shares (and equivalence scales) has very little impact on either overall poverty rates or the impact of housing assistance on poverty. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200090.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 527 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:527 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Charlene Marie Kalenkoski Author-Name-First: Charlene Marie Author-Name-Last: Kalenkoski Author-Name: Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia Author-Name-First: Sabrina Wulff Author-Name-Last: Pabilonia Title: Differential Initial Impacts of COVID-19 on the Employment and Hours of the Self-employed Abstract: This study examines the initial impact of COVID-19 on the employment and hours of unincorporated self-employed workers using data from the Current Population Survey. Random-effects and difference-in-difference-in-differences models are estimated and differential impacts by gender, marital status, and parental status are examined. Although employment and hours decreased for all groups due to the response to the health threat posed by the pandemic differential impacts by gender, marital status, and parental status exist. Married women were less likely to be working than married men, while single women were more likely to be working than single men. However, fathers of school-age children who remained employed were working reduced hours compared to men without children. Remote work and working in an essential industry mitigated some of the negative effects on employment and hours. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200100.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 528 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:528 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kevin E. Cahill Author-Name-First: Kevin E. Author-Name-Last: Cahill Author-Name: Michael D. Giandrea Author-Name-First: Michael D. Author-Name-Last: Giandrea Author-Name: Joseph F. Quinn Author-Name-First: Joseph F. Author-Name-Last: Quinn Title: Unretirement in the 2010s: Prevalence, Determinants, and Outcomes Abstract: For several decades a sizable minority of older Americans have reentered the labor force after an initial retirement, or “unretired.” The percentage who have done so has remained remarkably stable over the years. While measures of unretirement differ across studies, by one measure between 10 to 20 percent of older career workers reenter the labor after leaving for two or more years. This paper explores whether unretirements have been increasing in recent years, most notably in the aftermath of the Great Recession and the slow but persistent economic recovery that followed. We use data on four cohorts of older career workers from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from 1992 through 2016 and examine the prevalence of reentry over time among each one. We find that reentry continues to play an important role in the retirement process of older Americans, with rates more or less consistent across cohorts. Most notably, we do not find evidence of a shift in the prevalence of unretirements in recent years. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200110.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 529 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:529 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Cindy Cunningham Author-Name-First: Cindy Author-Name-Last: Cunningham Author-Name: Lucia Foster Author-Name-First: Lucia Author-Name-Last: Foster Author-Name: Cheryl Grim Author-Name-First: Cheryl Author-Name-Last: Grim Author-Name: John Haltiwanger Author-Name-First: John Author-Name-Last: Haltiwanger Author-Name: Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia Author-Name-First: Sabrina Wulff Author-Name-Last: Pabilonia Author-Name: Jay Stewart Author-Name-First: Jay Author-Name-Last: Stewart Author-Name: Zoltan Wolf Author-Name-First: Zoltan Author-Name-Last: Wolf Title: Dispersion in Dispersion: Measuring Establishment-Level Differences in Productivity Abstract: We describe new experimental productivity statistics, Dispersion Statistics on Productivity (DiSP), jointly developed and published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau. Productivity measures are critical for understanding economic performance. Official BLS productivity statistics, which are available for major sectors and detailed industries, provide information on the sources of aggregate productivity growth. A large body of research shows that within-industry variation in productivity provides important insights into productivity dynamics. This research reveals large and persistent productivity differences across businesses even within narrowly defined industries. These differences vary across industries and over time and are related to productivity-enhancing reallocation. Dispersion in productivity across businesses can provide information about the nature of competition and frictions within sectors, and about the sources of rising wage inequality across businesses. Because there were no official statistics providing this level of detail, BLS and the Census Bureau partnered to create measures of within-industry productivity dispersion. These measures complement official BLS aggregate and industry-level productivity growth statistics and thereby improve our understanding of the rich productivity dynamics in the U.S. economy. The underlying microdata for these measures are available for use by qualified researchers on approved projects in the Federal Statistical Research Data Center (FSRDC) network. These new statistics confirm the presence of large productivity differences and we hope that these new data products will encourage further research into understanding these differences. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200120.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 530 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:530 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Martin Author-Name-First: Robert Author-Name-Last: Martin Title: Changing Tastes Versus Specification Error in Cost-of-Living Measurement Abstract: Several recent papers aim to account for changing preferences in cost-of-living indexes (COLI). Workhorse models like Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) attribute the errors in demand regressions entirely to preferences, leaving no room for other sources of error. Using a Monte Carlo experiment and retail scanner data, I find evidence that model misspecification can lead to misleading conclusions about the degree of taste change reflected in CES-based price indexes. Nevertheless, under misspecification, a Sato-Vartia index still approximates a conditional COLI that fixes tastes to an intermediate level. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200130.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 531 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:531 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Dalton Author-Name-First: Michael Author-Name-Last: Dalton Author-Name: Elizabeth Weber Handwerker Author-Name-First: Elizabeth Weber Author-Name-Last: Handwerker Author-Name: Mark A. Loewenstein Author-Name-First: Mark A. Author-Name-Last: Loewenstein Title: An Update on Employment changes by employer size during the COVID-19 pandemic: a look at the Current Employment Statistics survey microdata Abstract: This paper expands on previous work analyzing employment changes by employer size during the pandemic by incorporating additional months of new data (October and November 2020) and examining job loss by both employer size class and detailed industries. Continuing trends observed since mid-summer, we observe continued faster job recovery among large employers than among smaller employers. Furthermore, establishments of large employers known to have multiple establishments have fared better than large employers with only a single establishment. Within small employers, we find that employment loss due to closures has declined only a small amount since July, going from 2.8% to 2.3% in November. For large employers, employment loss due to closures has been less than 1% since June. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200140.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 532 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:532 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Brian Adams Author-Name-First: Brian Author-Name-Last: Adams Author-Name: Randal Verbrugge Author-Name-First: Randal Author-Name-Last: Verbrugge Title: Location, Location, Structure Type: Rent Divergence within Neighborhoods Abstract: Housing rents are large share of household budgets and make a large contribution to overall inflation. Rent inflation for different types of housing units sometimes diverge, even in the same neighborhoods. We estimate during 2013 to 2016 apartment rents outpaced rents for detached housing in the United States by 0.75 percentage points annually after controlling for location effects. These rent dynamics imply a segmented housing market. They also suggest rent indexes need to be based on data structurally representative of their measurement objective. In particular, indexes based on professionally-managed apartment complexes mismeasure the rents for housing generally. Even indexes based on careful geographical sampling, such as the Consumer Price Index’s Owner Equivalent Rent component, may be biased by using an unrepresentative mix of apartments and houses. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200150.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 533 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:533 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gregory Kurtzon Author-Name-First: Gregory Author-Name-Last: Kurtzon Title: The Problem with Normalizing Preferences that Change in a Cost-of-Living Index Abstract: There are new proposals for prices indexes that attempt to correct for what they consider bias in standard indexes from changes in consumer preferences. But these proposals have a fundamental problem that changes in preferences between two periods cannot be identi.ed by data on prices and quantities with only a normalization. This paper shows that the required normalization is not free, so that an arbitrary choice of normalization can yield any desired index result. In fact, a normalization using the Sato-Vartia weights yields a Sato-Vartia index, implying exactly zero bias. Creation-Date: 2020 File-URL: https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2020/pdf/ec200160.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 534 Handle: RePEc:bls:wpaper:534