The retail sector has changed from a sector full of small firms to one dominated by large, national 
firms. We study how this transformation has impacted productivity levels, growth, and dispersion
between 1987 and 2017. We describe this transformation using three overlapping phases: expansion 
(1980s and 1990s), consolidation (2000s), and stagnation (2010s). We document five findings that 
help us understand these phases. First, productivity growth was high during the consolidation phase 
but has fallen more recently. Second, entering establishments drove productivity growth during the 
expansion phase, but continuing establishments have increased in importance more recently. Third, 
national chains have more productive establishments than single-unit firms on average, but some 
single-unit establishments are highly productive. Fourth, productivity dispersion is significant and 
increasing over time. Finally, more productive firms pay higher wages and grow more quickly.
Together, these results suggest that the increasing importance of large national retail firms has been 
an important driver of productivity and wage growth in the retail sector. 
Disclaimer: This presentation provides a summary of research results. The information is being released for statistical purposes,
 to inform interested parties, and to encourage discussion of work in progress. The presentation does not represent an existing,
 or a forthcoming new, official BLS statistical data product or production series.
Notice: The conference presentation is available upon request (Contact Author is Dominic Smith Smith.Dominic@bls.gov).