Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until                                        
8:30 a.m. (EST) February 13, 2019              USDL-19-0241

Technical information: (202) 691-7000  •  cpi_info@bls.gov  •  www.bls.gov/cpi
Media Contact:         (202) 691-5902  •  PressOffice@bls.gov

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX –JANUARY 2019

(NOTE: This news release was reissued on February 13, 2019, correcting the 
following sentence: “The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2
percent in January for the fifth consecutive month.” The original sentence stated
it was the fourth consecutive month.) 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in
January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today.  Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased
1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The energy index declined for the third consecutive month, offsetting increases
in the indexes for all items less food and energy and for food. All the major
energy component indexes declined in January, with the gasoline index falling
5.5 percent. The food index increased 0.2 percent, with the index for food at
home rising 0.1 percent and the food away from home index increasing 0.3 percent. 

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in January
for the fifth consecutive month. The indexes for shelter, apparel, medical care,
recreation, and household furnishings and operations were among the indexes that
rose in January, while the indexes for airline fares and for motor vehicle
insurance declined.   

The all items index increased 1.6 percent for the 12 months ending January, the
smallest increase since the period ending June 2017. The index for all items
less food and energy rose 2.2 percent over the last 12 months, the same increase
as the 12 months ending November and December 2018. The food index rose
1.6 percent over the past year, while the energy index declined 4.8 percent. 

Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                  Seasonally adjusted changes from             
                                          preceding month                      
                                                                          Un-  
                                                                       adjusted
                                                                        12-mos.
                              July  Aug.  Sep.  Oct.  Nov.  Dec.  Jan.   ended 
                              2018  2018  2018  2018  2018  2018  2019   Jan.  
                                                                         2019  
                                                                               
                                                                               
 All items..................    .2    .1    .1    .3    .0    .0    .0      1.6
  Food......................    .1    .1    .1    .0    .2    .3    .2      1.6
   Food at home.............    .2    .0   -.1   -.1    .1    .3    .1       .6
   Food away from home (1)..    .1    .2    .2    .1    .3    .4    .3      2.8
  Energy....................    .0    .5  -1.0   2.1  -2.8  -2.6  -3.1     -4.8
   Energy commodities.......    .2    .6  -1.1   2.6  -5.0  -5.7  -5.3     -9.7
    Gasoline (all types)....    .2    .5  -1.2   2.7  -5.2  -5.8  -5.5    -10.1
    Fuel oil................   1.1   1.6   -.7   3.2  -2.9  -9.4  -1.3     -8.1
   Energy services..........   -.4    .4   -.9   1.3    .2   1.5   -.5      1.3
    Electricity.............   -.3    .3   -.7   1.8    .2    .4   -.6       .4
    Utility (piped) gas                                                        
       service..............   -.9    .7  -1.5   -.5    .2   5.1   -.3      4.3
  All items less food and                                                      
     energy.................    .2    .1    .2    .2    .2    .2    .2      2.2
   Commodities less food and                                                   
      energy commodities....    .0   -.2   -.1    .3    .2    .0    .4       .3
    New vehicles............    .1    .0    .0   -.2    .0    .0    .2       .0
    Used cars and trucks....    .6    .5  -2.1   2.5   2.5   -.5    .1      1.6
    Apparel.................   -.3  -1.3    .9    .2   -.6    .0   1.1       .1
    Medical care commodities   -.8   -.3   -.2   -.1    .5   -.4    .1      -.3
   Services less energy                                                        
      services..............    .3    .2    .3    .2    .2    .2    .2      2.8
    Shelter.................    .3    .3    .2    .2    .3    .3    .3      3.2
    Transportation services     .6    .1    .5    .1    .0   -.1   -.2      2.0
    Medical care services...    .1   -.1    .3    .2    .4    .4    .3      2.4

   1 Not seasonally adjusted.



Food

The food index rose 0.2 percent in January, its third consecutive monthly
increase.  The food at home index rose 0.1 percent, with major grocery store
food group indexes split with three increases and three declines. The index for
nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.8 percent in January, its largest increase since
May 2017. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.6 percent as the
beef index increased 1.4 percent. The index for other food at home rose
0.1 percent in January after declining in December. 

The fruits and vegetables index declined in January, falling 0.3 percent after a
sharp increase in December. The index for cereals and bakery products also turned
down, falling 0.4 percent in January after rising in December, and the index for
dairy and related products fell 0.3 percent. 

The index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent in January following a
0.4-percent increase in December. The index for limited service meals rose
0.6 percent, while the index for full service meals increased 0.2 percent.

The food at home index rose 0.6 percent over the past 12 months. Five of the six
major grocery store food group indexes increased over the span, with the
nonalcoholic beverages index posting the largest increase at 2.2 percent. The
dairy and related products index was the only one to decline, falling 0.4 percent.
The index for food away from home rose 2.8 percent over the last 12 months.  

Energy

The energy index fell 3.1 percent in January. The gasoline index continued to
decline, falling 5.5 percent. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell
5.2 percent in January.) The other major energy component indexes declined more
modestly in January. The electricity index fell 0.6 percent, the index for natural
gas declined 0.3 percent, and the fuel oil index decreased 1.3 percent. 

The energy index fell 4.8 percent over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month
decline in the index since the period ending August 2016. The major energy component
indexes were mixed over the last 12 months. The gasoline index fell 10.1 percent
over the span and the index for fuel oil declined 8.1 percent. In contrast, the
index for natural gas rose 4.3 percent over the past 12 months and the electricity
index increased 0.4 percent. 
 
All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in January.
The shelter index increased 0.3 percent in January, the same increase as in
November and December. The indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent both rose
0.3 percent, and the index for lodging away from home rose 0.5 percent. 

The apparel index rose 1.1 percent in January, its largest increase since February
2018.  The medical care index rose 0.2 percent in January, with its component
indexes mixed.  The physicians' services index rose 0.4 percent, while the index
for prescription drugs was unchanged and the hospital services index declined
0.3 percent.

The recreation index continued to rise, increasing 0.3 percent in January, as did
the indexes for household furnishings and operations and for education. The new
vehicles index rose 0.2 percent in January. The index for used cars and trucks,
which declined in December, rose 0.1 percent in January, and the indexes for
tobacco and for personal care also increased.

In contrast, the index for airline fares continued to fall in January, declining
0.9 percent. The index for motor vehicle insurance fell 0.2 percent in January, its
third consecutive decline. The index for communication was unchanged in January. 

The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent over the past 12 months.
The shelter index rose 3.2 percent over the span, and the index for medical care rose
1.9 percent. The new vehicles index was unchanged over the past year. Indexes that
declined over the past 12 months include communication (-1.7 percent) and airline
fares (-2.8 percent). 

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.6 percent over
the last 12 months to an index level of 251.712 (1982-84=100). For the month, the
index increased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.  

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased
1.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 245.133 (1982-84=100). For
the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.  

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased
1.4 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.2 percent
on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past
10 to 12 months are subject to revision. 


The Consumer Price Index for February 2019 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday,
March 12, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT). 














Technical Note

Brief Explanation of the CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers
for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two
population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical
workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total
U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of
urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the
poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and
clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people
living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed
Forces, and those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals.
Consumer inflation for all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely,
the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
is based on the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition
that meet two requirements: more than one-half of the household's income must
come from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of the household's
earners must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous
12 months. The CPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the total U.S.
population and is a subset of the CPI-U population.

The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation,
doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that
people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban
areas across the country from about 5,000 housing units and approximately
22,000 retail establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals,
filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments). All
taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in
the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in
all 75 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected
every month in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in
other areas. Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits
or telephone calls by the Bureau’s trained representatives.

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location
are aggregated using weights, which represent their importance in the spending
of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a
U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are also published
by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions
and population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do
not measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure
the average change in prices for each area since the base period. For the
C-CPI-U, data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are
considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form
and subject to three subsequent quarterly revisions.

The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the
CPI-U and the CPI-W, the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference
base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.  An increase of 7 percent from
the reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively, that
relationship can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket
of goods and services rising from $100 to $107.

Sampling Error in the CPI

The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it
is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all
prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month,
and 12-month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U. These
standard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for
hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month
percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S. all items CPI. This means that if
we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same
methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent
of these estimates will be within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage
change based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1-month change of
0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 95 percent confident that the actual
percent change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.14 and
0.26 percent. For the latest data, including information on how to use the
estimates of standard error,
see https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm.

Calculating Index Changes

Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent changes
rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level
of the index in relation to its base period, while percent changes are not. The following
table shows an example of using index values to calculate percent changes:
 
                                 Item A                   Item B                    Item C
Year I                          112.500                  225.000                   110.000
Year II                         121.500                  243.000                   128.000
Change in index points            9.000                   18.000                    18.000
Percent change 9.0/112.500 x 100 = 8.0  18.0/225.000 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/110.000 x 100 = 16.4
Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data.
Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS
seasonal adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are
used to revise the previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors are available
at www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2019.pdf. For more information
on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal Adjustment at
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm
and the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes at
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm. 
For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually
preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and
in about the same magnitude every year—such as price movements resulting from weather events,
production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on
changes that are not typical for the time of year. The unadjusted data are of primary interest
to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used
extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension
plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for
seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation
agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.


Intervention Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment for some CPI series.
Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of price
change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which the distortions caused by
such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal
factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern,
are then applied to the unadjusted data.

For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 2009
return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this outlier
data during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal portion of
the time series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data prior to
seasonal adjustment. Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this
“prior adjusted” data. These seasonal factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal pattern
in the data. The last step is for motor fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the unadjusted data.

For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2019, BLS adjusted 51 series using intervention
analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity,
and vehicles.

Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes

Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to
revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI
calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years
of data.  Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final
and not subject to revision. For January 2019, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted
indexes for 2014 to 2018 were calculated and published. For series which are directly adjusted
using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2018
will be applied to data for 2019 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2019 indexes. Series which
are indirectly seasonally adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal
factors which are derived and are therefore not available in advance.

Determining Seasonal Status

Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical
criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its
status from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the
81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status
from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used
in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted
indexes before that period will not be changed. Twenty-nine of the 81 components of the
U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted for 2019.

Contact Information

For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information
and Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov.

For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section at
202-691-6968 or cpiseas@bls.gov.

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request.
Voice phone: 202-691-5200; Federal Relay Service: 1-800-877-8339.