Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until                                        
8:30 a.m. (EDT) July 14, 2020                  USDL-20-1376

Technical information: (202) 691-7000  •  cpi_info@bls.gov  •  www.bls.gov/cpi
Media Contact:         (202) 691-5902  •  PressOffice@bls.gov 

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – JUNE 2020

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in
June on a seasonally adjusted basis after falling 0.1 percent in May, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items
index increased 0.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index rose sharply in June after recent declines and accounted for
over half of the monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The
energy index increased 5.1 percent in June as the gasoline index rose 12.3 percent.
The food index also rose in June, increasing 0.6 percent as the index for food at
home continued to rise. 

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June, its first
monthly increase since February. The index for motor vehicle insurance increased
sharply in June after recent declines. The indexes for apparel, shelter, and medical
care also increased in June, while the indexes for used cars and trucks, recreation,
and communication all declined. 

The all items index increased 0.6 percent for the 12 months ending June; this
compares to a 0.1-percent increase for the 12 months ending May. The index for all
items less food and energy increased 1.2 percent over the last 12 months. The food
index increased 4.5 percent over the last 12 months, with the index for food at home
rising 5.6 percent. Despite increasing in June, the energy index fell 12.6 percent
over the last 12 months. 


 Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
 average
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                  Seasonally adjusted changes from             
                                          preceding month                      
                                                                          Un-  
                                                                       adjusted
                                                                        12-mos.
                              Dec.  Jan.  Feb.  Mar.  Apr.  May   June   ended 
                              2019  2020  2020  2020  2020  2020  2020   June  
                                                                         2020  
                                                                               
                                                                               
 All items..................    .2    .1    .1   -.4   -.8   -.1    .6       .6
  Food......................    .2    .2    .4    .3   1.5    .7    .6      4.5
   Food at home.............    .0    .1    .5    .5   2.6   1.0    .7      5.6
   Food away from home (1)..    .3    .4    .2    .2    .1    .4    .5      3.1
  Energy....................   1.6   -.7  -2.0  -5.8 -10.1  -1.8   5.1    -12.6
   Energy commodities.......   3.0  -1.6  -3.5 -10.4 -20.0  -3.5  11.7    -23.2
    Gasoline (all types)....   3.1  -1.6  -3.4 -10.5 -20.6  -3.5  12.3    -23.4
    Fuel oil................   1.1   -.4  -8.5 -13.7 -15.6  -6.3  10.2    -29.9
   Energy services..........   -.2    .6   -.3   -.5    .1   -.5   -.2       .1
    Electricity.............   -.2    .4   -.1   -.2    .1   -.8   -.3       .1
    Utility (piped) gas                                                        
       service..............   -.5   1.0   -.9  -1.4    .2    .8    .0      -.2
  All items less food and                                                      
     energy.................    .1    .2    .2   -.1   -.4   -.1    .2      1.2
   Commodities less food and                                                   
      energy commodities....    .0    .0    .2   -.3   -.7   -.2    .2     -1.1
    New vehicles............    .1    .0    .1   -.4    .0    .3    .0      -.2
    Used cars and trucks....   -.4  -1.2    .4    .8   -.4   -.4  -1.2     -2.8
    Apparel.................    .1    .7    .4  -2.0  -4.7  -2.3   1.7     -7.3
    Medical care commodities   1.0   -.6   -.6    .0   -.1    .1    .2      1.3
   Services less energy                                                        
      services..............    .2    .3    .2    .0   -.4    .0    .3      1.9
    Shelter.................    .2    .4    .3    .0    .0    .2    .1      2.4
    Transportation services    -.1    .3    .3  -1.9  -4.7  -3.6   2.1     -7.0
    Medical care services...    .3    .3    .3    .5    .5    .6    .5      6.0

   1 Not seasonally adjusted.


Food

The food index increased 0.6 percent in June following a 0.7-percent increase in May.
The food at home index rose 0.7 percent in June after increasing 1.0 percent in May.
Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes rose in June. The index for
meat, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 2.0 percent in June. This reflected another
increase in the beef index which rose 4.8 percent in June and increased 20.4 percent
over the last 3 months.

The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased in June, rising 0.7 percent. The
indexes for cereals and bakery products and for fruits and vegetables both rose
0.4 percent. The index for other food at home rose 0.2 percent in June. The only
major grocery store food group index to decline was dairy and related products,
which fell 0.4 percent in June, its first decline since July 2019.

The index for food away from home rose 0.5 percent in June following a 0.4-percent
increase in May. The index for full service meals increased 0.9 percent, its largest
ever monthly increase. The index for limited service meals advanced 0.5 percent in
June after rising 0.6 percent in May.   

The food at home index increased 5.6 percent over the last 12 months, its largest
12-month increase since the period ending December 2011. All six major grocery store
food group indexes rose over that span. The beef index increased 25.1 percent over
the last 12 months, leading to a 12.8-percent increase in the index for meats,
poultry, fish, and eggs. The remaining groups rose more modestly, with increases
ranging from 2.3 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 5.3 percent (nonalcoholic
beverages). The index for food away from home rose 3.1 percent over the last year.
The index for limited service meals increased 4.1 percent and the index for full
service meals rose 2.7 percent over the last 12 months.

Energy

The energy index rose 5.1 percent in June after falling in each of the previous 5 months.
The increase was a result of the gasoline index, which rose 12.3 percent in June after
falling in the first 5 months of the year. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices
rose 10.0 percent in June.) The electricity index, in contrast, declined in June, falling
0.3 percent. The index for natural gas was unchanged in June.

The energy index fell 12.6 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index decreased
23.4 percent, while the fuel oil index fell 29.9 percent. The index for natural gas
declined 0.2 percent, while the index for electricity increased slightly over the year,
rising 0.1 percent.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in June. The index
for motor vehicle insurance rose 5.1 percent in June after falling sharply in April and
May. The apparel index rose 1.7 percent in June following recent declines. The shelter
index rose 0.1 percent in June, with the indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent
both increasing 0.1 percent. 

The medical care index rose 0.4 percent in June after increasing 0.5 percent in May.
The index for physicians’ services increased 0.5 percent, the index for hospital
services rose 0.4 percent, and the index for prescription drugs increased 0.1 percent.
Other indexes that increased in June include household furnishings and operations
(0.4 percent), airline fares (2.6 percent), and tobacco (1.1 percent).

The index for used cars and trucks declined in June, falling 1.2 percent, its third
consecutive monthly decline. The recreation index declined 0.6 percent in June after
rising 0.9 percent in May. The index for communication fell 0.3 percent in June. The
new vehicles index was unchanged in June after increasing 0.3 percent in May.   

The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.2 percent over the past 12 months.
The shelter index rose 2.4 percent over the 12-month span. The index for rent increased
3.2 percent and the index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 2.8 percent, while the index
for lodging away from home fell 14.0 percent. The medical care index increased 5.1 percent
over the last 12 months. The indexes for airline fares, apparel, motor vehicle insurance,
used cars and trucks, and new vehicles all declined over the past 12 months. 

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent over the
last 12 months to an index level of 257.797 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose
0.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.  

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased
0.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 251.054 (1982-84=100). For the
month, the index rose 0.6 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.  

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent
over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.6 percent on a not
seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are
subject to revision. 

_______________
The Consumer Price Index for July 2020 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday,
August 12, 2020 at 8:30 a.m. (EDT). 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on June 2020 Consumer Price Index Data

Data collection by personal visit for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) program has been suspended 
since March 16, 2020. When possible, data normally collected by personal visit were collected either
online or by phone. Additionally, data collection in June was affected by the temporary closing or
limited operations of certain types of establishments. These factors resulted in an increase in the
number of prices considered temporarily unavailable and imputed. While the CPI program attempted to
collect as much data as possible, many indexes are based on smaller amounts of collected prices than
usual, and a small number of indexes that are normally published were not published this month. 
Additional information is available at
www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-consumer-price-index.htm

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Technical Note

Brief Explanation of the CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers
for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two
population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical
workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total
U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of
urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor,
the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical
workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in
rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and
those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation
for all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price
Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for
All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is
based on the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition that
meet two requirements: more than one-half of the household's income must come
from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of the household's earners
must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous 12 months.
The CPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the total U.S. population
and is a subset of the CPI-U population.

The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation,
doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people
buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas
across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail
establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and
other types of stores and service establishments). All taxes directly associated
with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and
a few other items are obtained every month in all 75 locations. Prices of most
other commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest
geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and
services are obtained by personal visits or telephone calls by the Bureau’s
trained representatives.

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location
are aggregated using weights, which represent their importance in the spending
of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a
U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are also published
by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions
and population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do not
measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the
average change in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U,
data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are considered
final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to
three subsequent quarterly revisions.

The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the
CPI-U and the CPI-W, the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base
for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.  An increase of 7 percent from the
reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively, that relationship
can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket of goods and
services rising from $100 to $107.

Sampling Error in the CPI

The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is
based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices.
BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-
month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U. These standard error
estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing.
For example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03
percent for the U.S. all items CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample from
the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a
percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these estimates will be
within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail prices.
For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are
95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices
would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, including
information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm.

Calculating Index Changes

Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent
changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are
affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period, while percent
changes are not.

The following table shows an example of using index values to calculate percent
changes:
 
                               Item A                  Item B                      Item C
Year I                         112.500                 225.000                     110.000
Year II                        121.500                 243.000                     128.000
Change in index points         9.000                   18.000                      18.000
Percent change                 9.0/112.500 x 100 = 8.0  18.0/225.000 x 100 = 8.0   18.0/110.000 x 100 = 16.4
Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data.
Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-
SEATS seasonal adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new
factors are used to revise the previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors
are available at www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2020.pdf.
For more information on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal
Adjustment at www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm and the
Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes at
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm.

For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are
usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the
same time and in about the same magnitude every year—such as price movements resulting
from weather events, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This
allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the time of year. The
unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they
actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many
collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation
changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises
against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation agreements because seasonally
adjusted series are revised annually.

Intervention Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment for some
CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal
pattern of price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which
the distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior
to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately 
represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.

For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the
2009 return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this
outlier data during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal
portion of the time series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data
prior to seasonal adjustment. Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this
“prior adjusted” data. These seasonal factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal
pattern in the data. The last step is for motor fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the
unadjusted data.

For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2020, BLS adjusted 53 series using intervention
analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels,
electricity, and vehicles.

Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes

Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject
to revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI
calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years
of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final
and not subject to revision. For January 2020, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted
indexes for 2015 to 2019 were calculated and published. For series which are directly adjusted
using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2019
will be applied to data for 2020 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2020 indexes. Series which
are indirectly seasonally adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal
factors which are derived and are therefore not available in advance.

Determining Seasonal Status

Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical
criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its
status from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the
81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status
from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used
in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted
indexes before that period will not be changed. Twenty-eight of the 81 components of the U.S.
city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted for 2020.

Contact Information

For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information
and Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov.

For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section at
202-691-6968 or cpiseas@bls.gov.

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon
request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; Federal Relay Service: 1-800-877-8339.