For release 10:00 a.m. (EST) Thursday, December 10, 2009 USDL-09-1503
Technical information: (202) 691-5700 * ep-info@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/emp
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
NOTE: This release was reissued on Friday, December 11, 2009, to correct
the website address in the footnote in tables 6-10. This correction did
not affect any data or analysis in the release.
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS--2008-18
Total employment is projected to increase by 15.3 million, or 10.1 percent,
during the 2008-18 period, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
The projections show an aging and more racially and ethnically diverse labor
force, and employment growth in service-providing industries. More than half of
the new jobs will be in professional and related occupations and service occupa-
tions. In addition, occupations where a postsecondary degree or award is usually
required are expected to account for one-third of total job openings during the
projection period. Job openings from replacement needs--those which occur when
workers who retire or otherwise leave their occupations need to be replaced--
are projected to be more than double the number of openings due to economic
growth.
The projected growth for the 2008-18 period is larger than the increase of 10.4
million over the 1998-2008 period, or 7.4 percent. The relatively slow growth
rate for the earlier 10-year period was affected by the recession which began
in December 2007, and the projected growth rate is higher than would otherwise
be expected because the 2008 starting point is a recession year.
This news release focuses on four areas for which BLS develops projections--labor
force, industry employment, occupational employment, and education and training.
Labor Force
The civilian labor force is projected to grow by 12.6 million between 2008 and
2018, to 166.9 million persons. Slower population growth and a decreasing over-
all labor force participation rate are expected to contribute to a slowdown in
labor force growth. The projected 8.2-percent increase for the 2008-18 period
is less than the 12.1-percent growth that occurred between 1998 and 2008. (See
table 1.)
As the members of the large baby boom generation grow older and continue their
trend of increased labor force participation, the number of persons age 55 years
and older in the labor force is expected to increase by 12.0 million, or 43.0
percent, during the 2008-18 period. Persons in the 55 years and older age group
are projected to make up nearly one-quarter of the labor force in 2018. Young
people (age 16-24) are expected to account for 12.7 percent of the labor force
in 2018, and persons in the prime-age working group (age 25 to 54) to account
for 63.5 percent of the 2018 labor force.
The labor force in 2018 will be more diverse. As a result of higher population
growth among minorities--due to higher birth rates and increased immigration,
along with higher labor force participation rates by Hispanics and Asians--the
share of the labor force held by minorities is projected to increase signifi-
cantly. Whites will remain the largest race group in the labor force in 2018
(79.4 percent) despite growing by just 5.5 percent between 2008 and 2018. The
number of Asians in the labor force is projected to increase by 29.8 percent
and the number of blacks by 14.1 percent. In 2018, Asians are projected to com-
prise 5.6 percent of the labor force and blacks to make up 12.1 percent.
Hispanics (who can be of any race) will join the labor force in greater numbers
than non-Hispanics. The number of Hispanics in the labor force is projected to
grow by 7.3 million or 33.1 percent. Their share of the labor force will expand
from 14.3 percent in 2008 to 17.6 percent in 2018. In contrast, the number of per-
sons in the labor force not of Hispanic origin is expected to grow by 4.0 percent,
and their share of the labor force to decline to 82.4 percent.
Industry Employment
Projected employment growth is concentrated in the service-providing sector, con-
tinuing a long-term shift from the goods-producing sector of the economy. From
2008 to 2018, service-providing industries are projected to add 14.6 million
jobs, or 96 percent of the increase in total employment. The 2 industry sectors
expected to have the largest employment growth are professional and business
services (4.2 million) and health care and social assistance (4.0 million).
Goods-producing employment, as a whole, is expected to show virtually no growth.
While employment in the construction industry is projected to increase by 1.3
million, declines in manufacturing (-1.2 million) and mining (-104,000) will
nearly offset this growth. By 2018, the goods-producing sector is expected to
account for 12.9 percent of total jobs, down from 17.3 percent in 1998 and 14.2
percent in 2008. (See table 2.)
Three of the 10 detailed industries projected to have the most employment growth
are in professional and business services: management, scientific, and technical
consulting; computer systems design; and employment services. Altogether, these
3 industries are expected to add 2.1 million jobs. Four of the top 10 gainers
are in health care and social assistance industries. Employment in offices of
physicians, home health care, services for the elderly and persons with disabil-
ities, and nursing care facilities is expected to grow by 2.0 million. (See
table 3.)
Of the 10 detailed industries with the largest projected employment declines,
4 are in the manufacturing sector and 2 each are within retail trade and in-
formation. The largest decline among the detailed industries is expected to
be in department stores, with a loss of 159,000 jobs, followed by manufacturers
of semiconductors (-146,000) and motor vehicle parts (-101,000). (See table 4.)
Occupational Employment
Two major occupational groups--professional and related occupations and service
occupations--are projected to provide more than half of the total employment
growth during the 2008-18 period. Production occupations are projected to decline.
The 30 detailed occupations with the largest gains in employment are expected to
account for nearly half of all new jobs, and 17 of these occupations are profes-
sional and related occupations and service occupations. The detailed occupation
projected to add the most jobs is registered nurses (582,000), followed by home
health aides (461,000) and customer service representatives (400,000). All but 3
of the top 30 fastest-growing detailed occupations are found within professional
and related occupations and service occupations. Seventeen of these rapidly grow-
ing occupations are related to healthcare or medical research. (See tables 5, 6,
and 7.)
Of the 30 detailed occupations projected to have the largest employment declines,
12 are production occupations and 11 are office and administrative support occupa-
tions. (See table 8.)
Education and Training
Occupations that usually require a postsecondary degree or award are expected to
account for nearly half of all new jobs from 2008 to 2018 and one-third of total
job openings. Among the education and training categories, the fastest growth will
occur in occupations requiring an associate degree. (See table 9.)
Short- and moderate-term on-the-job training are the most significant sources of
postsecondary education or training for 17 of the 30 detailed occupations projected
to have the largest employment growth. However, in terms of percent growth, 14 of
the 30 fastest growing detailed occupations have a bachelor's degree or higher as
the most significant source of postsecondary education or training. (See tables 6
and 7.)
Of the 30 detailed occupations projected to have the largest employment declines,
17 are classified as having short-term on-the-job training as the most significant
source of education and training, and 10 are in the moderate-term on-the-job train-
ing category. (See table 8.)
Total job openings during the 2008-18 period are projected to be 50.9 million, and
19.6 million of these jobs are expected to be in the short-term on-the-job training
category. Sixteen of the 30 detailed occupations with the most job openings will
have short-term on-the-job training as the most significant source of education and
training. (See tables 9 and 10.)
A Note on Labor Shortages in the Context of Long-Term Economic Projections
Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected in-
crease in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor
shortage or surplus. Employment and labor force measures differ in concept. Employ-
ment is a count of jobs, and persons who hold more than one job would be counted for
each job. Labor force is a count of individuals, and a person is counted only once
regardless of how many jobs he or she holds. In addition, the BLS projections assume
a labor market in equilibrium, that is, one where labor supply meets labor demand
except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic
projection methodology, see "Employment projections, 2008-18," Kristina Bartsch,
November 2009 Monthly Labor Review.
More Information
The 10-year projections of industry and occupational employment, labor force, and
economic growth are widely used in career guidance, in education and training pro-
gram planning, and in studying long-range employment trends. The projections,
which are updated every 2 years, provide information to individuals who are making
decisions regarding education and training, entering the job market, or changing
careers.
More detailed information on the 2008-18 projections appears in five articles in
the November 2009 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. The Monthly Labor Review is available
online at www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/mlrhome.htm.
The 2010-11 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and the Career Guide to
Industries will feature the 2008-18 projections in assessing job prospects, work
activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more for numerous occu-
pations and industries. The updated Handbook and Career Guide will be available
online on December 17, 2009, at www.bls.gov/oco and www.bls.gov/oco/cg/, respec-
tively. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections appears in the
Winter 2009-10 issue of the Occupational Outlook Quarterly, available online on
December 10, 2009, at www.bls.gov/ooq.
Tables with detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the projections
are available online at www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm and projections methodology
can be accessed at www.bls.gov/emp/ep_projections_methods.htm.
Print versions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and Occupational Outlook Quar-
terly are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20401. To
order, visit www.bls.gov/emp/ep_current_publications.htm.
Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals
upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Services: (800) 877-8339.
Table 1. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1998, 2008, and projected 2018
(In thousands)
Age, sex, race, and ethnicity Level Change Percent change Percent distribution Average annual
rate of change
1998 2008 2018 1998- 2008- 1998- 2008- 1998 2008 2018 1998- 2008-
2008 2018 2008 2018 2008 2018
Total, 16 years and older..... 137,673 154,287 166,911 16,614 12,624 12.1 8.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1 0.8
Age, years:
16 to 24................... 21,894 22,032 21,131 138 -901 .6 -4.1 15.9 14.3 12.7 .1 -.4
25 to 54................... 98,718 104,396 105,944 5,678 1,548 5.8 1.5 71.7 67.7 63.5 .6 .1
55 and older............... 17,061 27,857 39,836 10,796 11,979 63.3 43.0 12.4 18.1 23.9 5.0 3.6
Sex:
Men........................ 73,959 82,520 88,682 8,561 6,162 11.6 7.5 53.7 53.5 53.1 1.1 .7
Women...................... 63,714 71,767 78,229 8,053 6,462 12.6 9.0 46.3 46.5 46.9 1.2 .9
Race:
White...................... 115,415 125,635 132,490 10,220 6,855 8.9 5.5 83.8 81.4 79.4 .9 .5
Black...................... 15,982 17,740 20,244 1,758 2,504 11.0 14.1 11.6 11.5 12.1 1.0 1.3
Asian...................... 6,278 7,202 9,345 924 2,143 14.7 29.8 4.6 4.7 5.6 1.4 2.6
All other groups (1)....... - 3,710 4,832 - 1,122 - 30.2 - 2.4 2.9 - 2.7
Ethnicity:
Hispanic origin............ 14,317 22,024 29,304 7,707 7,280 53.8 33.1 10.4 14.3 17.6 4.4 2.9
Other than Hispanic origin. 123,356 132,263 137,607 8,907 5,344 7.2 4.0 89.6 85.7 82.4 .7 .4
White non-Hispanic...... 101,767 105,210 106,834 3,443 1,624 3.4 1.5 73.9 68.2 64.0 .3 .2
1 The "all other groups" category includes (1) those classified as being of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories
of (2a) American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders.
NOTE: Dash indicates no data collected for category. Details may not sum to totals because of rounding.
Table 2. Employment by major industry sector, 1998, 2008, and projected 2018
(In thousands)
Industry sector Employment Change Percent distribution Average annual
rate of change
1998 2008 2018 1998- 2008- 1998 2008 2018 1998- 2008-
2008 2018 2008 2018
Total (1)....................................... 140,564 150,932 166,206 10,368 15,274 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.7 1.0
Nonagriculture wage and salary (2).............. 126,625 137,815 152,443 11,190 14,629 90.1 91.3 91.7 .9 1.0
Goods-producing, excluding agriculture.......... 24,274 21,363 21,390 -2,911 27 17.3 14.2 12.9 -1.3 .0
Mining....................................... 565 717 613 152 -104 .4 .5 .4 2.4 -1.6
Construction................................. 6,149 7,215 8,552 1,066 1,337 4.4 4.8 5.1 1.6 1.7
Manufacturing................................ 17,560 13,431 12,225 -4,128 -1,206 12.5 8.9 7.4 -2.6 -.9
Service-providing............................... 102,351 116,452 131,053 14,101 14,601 72.8 77.2 78.8 1.3 1.2
Utilities.................................... 613 560 500 -54 -59 .4 .4 .3 -.9 -1.1
Wholesale trade.............................. 5,795 5,964 6,220 169 256 4.1 4.0 3.7 .3 .4
Retail trade................................. 14,610 15,356 16,010 747 654 10.4 10.2 9.6 .5 .4
Transportation and warehousing............... 4,168 4,505 4,950 337 445 3.0 3.0 3.0 .8 .9
Information.................................. 3,218 2,997 3,115 -222 118 2.3 2.0 1.9 -.7 .4
Financial activities......................... 7,462 8,146 8,703 683 557 5.3 5.4 5.2 .9 .7
Professional and business services........... 15,147 17,778 21,968 2,632 4,190 10.8 11.8 13.2 1.6 2.1
Educational services......................... 2,233 3,037 3,842 804 805 1.6 2.0 2.3 3.1 2.4
Health care and social assistance............ 12,214 15,819 19,816 3,605 3,997 8.7 10.5 11.9 2.6 2.3
Leisure and hospitality...................... 11,232 13,459 14,601 2,227 1,142 8.0 8.9 8.8 1.8 .8
Other services............................... 5,750 6,333 7,142 583 809 4.1 4.2 4.3 1.0 1.2
Federal government........................... 2,772 2,764 2,859 -8 95 2.0 1.8 1.7 .0 .3
State and local government................... 17,137 19,735 21,327 2,598 1,591 12.2 13.1 12.8 1.4 .8
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (3). 2,528 2,098 2,020 -430 -78 1.8 1.4 1.2 -1.8 -.4
Agriculture wage and salary................... 1,373 1,210 1,206 -163 -3 1.0 .8 .7 -1.3 .0
Agriculture self-employed and unpaid family
workers....................................... 1,155 889 814 -267 -75 .8 .6 .5 -2.6 -.9
Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid
family workers................................ 9,342 9,313 9,943 -30 631 6.6 6.2 6.0 .0 .7
Secondary wage and salary jobs in agriculture
and private household industries (4).......... 172 182 192 9 10 .1 .1 .1 .5 .5
Secondary jobs as a self-employed or unpaid
family worker (5)............................. 1,897 1,524 1,607 -372 83 1.3 1.0 1.0 -2.2 .5
1 Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts jobs, whereas
self-employed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are from the Current Population Survey
(household survey), which counts workers.
2 Includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except private households, which is from the
Current Population Survey. Logging workers are excluded.
3 Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which is from
the Current Employment Statistics survey. Government wage and salary workers are excluded.
4 Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private household indus-
tries.
5 Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker.
Table 3. The 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2008-18 (1)
(In thousands)
Industry Sector Employment Change
2008 2018 Number Percent
Management, scientific, and technical
consulting services......................... Professional and business services.. 1,009 1,844 835 82.8
Offices of physicians......................... Health care and social assistance... 2,266 3,038 772 34.1
Computer systems design and related services.. Professional and business services.. 1,450 2,107 656 45.3
Other general merchandise stores.............. Retail trade........................ 1,490 2,097 607 40.7
Employment services........................... Professional and business services.. 3,144 3,744 600 19.1
Local government, excluding education and
hospitals................................... Government.......................... 5,819 6,306 487 8.4
Home health care services..................... Health care and social assistance... 958 1,399 441 46.1
Services for the elderly and persons with
disabilities................................ Health care and social assistance... 585 1,016 431 73.8
Nursing care facilities....................... Health care and social assistance... 1,614 2,007 394 24.4
Full-service restaurants...................... Accommodation and food services..... 4,598 4,942 343 7.5
1 Data are from the National Employment Matrix.
Table 4. The 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines, 2008-18 (1)
(In thousands)
Industry Sector Employment Change
2008 2018 Number Percent
Department stores............................. Retail trade............ 1,557 1,398 -159 -10.2
Semiconductor and other electronic component
manufacturing............................... Manufacturing........... 432 287 -146 -33.7
Motor vehicle parts manufacturing............. Manufacturing........... 544 443 -101 -18.6
Postal service................................ Government.............. 748 650 -98 -13.0
Printing and related support activities....... Manufacturing........... 594 499 -95 -16.0
Cut and sew apparel manufacturing............. Manufacturing........... 155 67 -89 -57.0
Newspaper publishers.......................... Information............. 326 245 -81 -24.8
Support activities for mining................. Mining.................. 328 252 -76 -23.2
Gasoline stations............................. Retail trade............ 843 769 -75 -8.9
Wired telecommunications carriers............. Information............. 666 593 -73 -11.0
1 Data are from the National Employment Matrix.
Table 5. Employment by major occupational group, 2008 and projected 2018
(In thousands)
Occupational group Employment Percent Change
distribution
2008 2018 2008 2018 Percent Number
Total, all occupations............................... 150,932 166,206 100.0 100.0 10.1 15,274
Management, business, and financial occupations (1).. 15,747 17,411 10.4 10.5 10.6 1,664
Professional and related occupations (2)............. 31,054 36,280 20.6 21.8 16.8 5,227
Service occupations (3).............................. 29,576 33,645 19.6 20.2 13.8 4,069
Sales and related occupations........................ 15,903 16,883 10.5 10.2 6.2 980
Office and administrative support occupations........ 24,101 25,943 16.0 15.6 7.6 1,842
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations........... 1,035 1,026 .7 .6 -.9 -9
Construction and extraction occupations.............. 7,810 8,829 5.2 5.3 13.0 1,019
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations.... 5,798 6,238 3.8 3.8 7.6 440
Production occupations............................... 10,083 9,734 6.7 5.9 -3.5 -349
Transportation and material moving occupations....... 9,826 10,217 6.5 6.1 4.0 391
1 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
Table 6. The 30 occupations with the largest employment growth, 2008-18
(In thousands)
Occupation Occupational group Employment Change Most significant source of
postsecondary education
2008 2018 Number Percent or training (1)
Registered nurses....................... Professional and related occupations (2)... 2,619 3,200 582 22.2 Associate degree
Home health aides....................... Service occupations (3).................... 922 1,383 461 50.0 Short-term on-the-job
training
Customer service representatives........ Office and administrative support Moderate-term on-the-job
occupations.............................. 2,252 2,652 400 17.7 training
Combined food preparation and
serving workers, including fast food.. Service occupations (3).................... 2,702 3,096 394 14.6 Short-term on-the-job
training
Personal and home care aides............ Service occupations (3).................... 817 1,193 376 46.0 Short-term on-the-job
training
Retail salespersons..................... Sales and related occupations.............. 4,489 4,864 375 8.4 Short-term on-the-job
training
Office clerks, general.................. Office and administrative support Short-term on-the-job
occupations.............................. 3,024 3,383 359 11.9 training
Accountants and auditors................ Management, business, and financial
occupations (4).......................... 1,291 1,570 279 21.7 Bachelor's degree
Nursing aides, orderlies, and........... Service occupations (3).................... 1,470 1,746 276 18.8 Postsecondary vocational
attendants award
Postsecondary teachers.................. Professional and related occupations (2)... 1,699 1,956 257 15.1 Doctoral degree
Construction laborers................... Construction and extraction occupations.... 1,249 1,505 256 20.5 Moderate-term on-the-job
training
Elementary school teachers, except
special education..................... Professional and related occupations (2)... 1,550 1,794 244 15.8 Bachelor's degree
Truck drivers, heavy and
tractor-trailer....................... Transportation and material moving Short-term on-the-job
occupations.............................. 1,798 2,031 233 13.0 training
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers.. Service occupations (3).................... 1,206 1,423 217 18.0 Short-term on-the-job
training
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing
clerks................................ Office and administrative support Moderate-term on-the-job
occupations.............................. 2,064 2,276 212 10.3 training
Executive secretaries and administra-
tive assistants....................... Office and administrative support Work experience in a
occupations.............................. 1,594 1,799 204 12.8 related occupation
Management analysts..................... Management, business, and financial Bachelor's or higher degree,
occupations (4).......................... 747 925 178 23.9 plus work experience
Computer software engineers,
applications.......................... Professional and related occupations (2)... 515 690 175 34.0 Bachelor's degree
Receptionists and information clerks.... Office and administrative support Short-term on-the-job
occupations.............................. 1,139 1,312 173 15.2 training
Carpenters.............................. Construction and extraction occupations.... 1,285 1,450 165 12.9 Long-term on-the-job
training
Medical assistants...................... Service occupations (3).................... 484 648 164 33.9 Moderate-term on-the-job
training
First-line supervisors/managers of
office and administrative support
workers............................... Office and administrative support Work experience in a
occupations.............................. 1,457 1,618 160 11.0 related occupation
Network systems and data communica-
tions analysts........................ Professional and related occupations (2)... 292 448 156 53.4 Bachelor's degree
Licensed practical and licensed
vocational nurses..................... Professional and related occupations (2)... 754 909 156 20.7 Postsecondary vocational
award
Security guards......................... Service occupations (3).................... 1,077 1,229 153 14.2 Short-term on-the-job
training
Waiters and waitresses.................. Service occupations (3).................... 2,382 2,533 152 6.4 Short-term on-the-job
training
Maintenance and repair workers, general. Installation, maintenance, and repair Moderate-term on-the-job
occupations.............................. 1,361 1,509 148 10.9 training
Physicians and surgeons................. Professional and related occupations (2)... 661 806 144 21.8 First professional degree
Child care workers...................... Service occupations (3).................... 1,302 1,444 142 10.9 Short-term on-the-job
training
Teacher assistants...................... Professional and related occupations (2)... 1,313 1,448 135 10.3 Short-term on-the-job
training
1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to
become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Measures of Education and Training, on the
Internet at www.bls.gov/emp/ep_projections_methods.htm.
2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
4 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
Table 7. The 30 fastest-growing occupations, 2008-18
(In thousands)
Occupation Occupational group Employment Change Most significant source of
2008 2018 Percent Number postsecondary education
or training (1)
Biomedical engineers........................ Professional and related occupations (2).. 16 28 72.0 12 Bachelor's degree
Network systems and data communications
analysts.................................. Professional and related occupations (2).. 292 448 53.4 156 Bachelor's degree
Home health aides........................... Service occupations (3)................... 922 1,383 50.0 461 Short-term on-the-job
training
Personal and home care aides................ Service occupations (3)................... 817 1,193 46.0 376 Short-term on-the-job
training
Financial examiners......................... Management, business, and financial
occupations (4)......................... 27 38 41.2 11 Bachelor's degree
Medical scientists, except epidemiologists.. Professional and related occupations (2).. 109 154 40.4 44 Doctoral degree
Physician assistants........................ Professional and related occupations (2).. 75 104 39.0 29 Master's degree
Skin care specialists....................... Service occupations (3)................... 39 54 37.9 15 Postsecondary vocational
award
Biochemists and biophysicists............... Professional and related occupations (2).. 23 32 37.4 9 Doctoral degree
Athletic trainers........................... Professional and related occupations (2).. 16 22 37.0 6 Bachelor's degree
Physical therapist aides.................... Service occupations (3)................... 46 63 36.3 17 Short-term on-the-job
training
Dental hygienists........................... Professional and related occupations (2).. 174 237 36.1 63 Associate degree
Veterinary technologists and technicians.... Professional and related occupations (2).. 80 108 35.8 29 Associate degree
Dental assistants........................... Service occupations (3)................... 295 401 35.8 106 Moderate-term on-the-job
training
Computer software engineers, applications... Professional and related occupations (2).. 515 690 34.0 175 Bachelor's degree
Medical assistants.......................... Service occupations (3)................... 484 648 33.9 164 Moderate-term on-the-job
training
Physical therapist assistants............... Service occupations (3)................... 64 85 33.3 21 Associate degree
Veterinarians............................... Professional and related occupations (2).. 60 79 33.0 20 First professional degree
Self-enrichment education teachers.......... Professional and related occupations (2).. 254 335 32.1 81 Work experience in a
related occupation
Compliance officers, except agriculture,
construction, health and safety, and
transportation............................ Management, business, and financial
occupations (4)......................... 260 341 31.1 81 Long-term on-the-job
training
Occupational therapist aides................ Service occupations (3)................... 8 10 30.7 2 Short-term on-the-job
training
Environmental engineers..................... Professional and related occupations (2).. 54 71 30.6 17 Bachelor's degree
Pharmacy technicians........................ Professional and related occupations (2).. 326 426 30.6 100 Moderate-term on-the-job
training
Computer software engineers, systems
software.................................. Professional and related occupations (2).. 395 515 30.4 120 Bachelor's degree
Survey researchers.......................... Professional and related occupations (2).. 23 31 30.4 7 Bachelor's degree
Physical therapists......................... Professional and related occupations (2).. 186 242 30.3 56 Master's degree
Personal financial advisors................. Management, business, and financial
occupations (4)......................... 208 271 30.1 63 Bachelor's degree
Environmental engineering technicians....... Professional and related occupations (2).. 21 28 30.1 6 Associate degree
Occupational therapist assistants........... Service occupations (3)................... 27 35 29.8 8 Associate degree
Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors... Service occupations (3)................... 261 338 29.4 77 Postsecondary vocational
award
1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to
become fully qualified in the occupation. For more information, see Measures of Education and Training, on the Internet at www.bls.gov/emp/
ep_projections_methods.htm.
2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
4 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
Table 8. The 30 occupations with the largest employment declines, 2008-18
(In thousands)
Occupation Occupational group Employment Change Most significant source of
2008 2018 Number Percent postsecondary education
or training (1)
Farmers and ranchers............................ Management, business, and financial
occupations (2).................... 986 907 -79 -8.0 Long-term on-the-job training
Sewing machine operators........................ Production occupations............... 212 141 -72 -33.7 Moderate-term on-the-job
training
Order clerks.................................... Office and administrative support
occupations........................ 246 182 -64 -26.1 Short-term on-the-job training
Postal service mail sorters, processors, and
processing machine operators................... Office and administrative support
occupations..............,,........ 180 125 -55 -30.3 Short-term on-the-job training
File clerks..................................... Office and administrative support
occupations........................ 212 163 -50 -23.4 Short-term on-the-job training
Shipping, receiving, and traffic clerks......... Office and administrative support
occupations........ ............... 751 701 -49 -6.6 Short-term on-the-job training
Telemarketers................................... Sales and related occupations........ 342 304 -38 -11.1 Short-term on-the-job training
First-line supervisors/managers of production
and operating workers......................... Production occupations............... 681 646 -36 -5.2 Work experience in a related
occupation
Office and administrative support workers,
all other..................................... Office and administrative support
occupations.... ................... 307 271 -36 -11.6 Short-term on-the-job training
Packers and packagers, hand..................... Transportation and material moving
occupations........................ 759 725 -34 -4.5 Short-term on-the-job training
Cutting, punching, and press machine setters,
operators, and tenders, metal and plastic .... Production occupations............... 237 204 -33 -14.1 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers.. Production occupations............... 213 182 -31 -14.7 Short-term on-the-job training
Machine feeders and offbearers.................. Transportation and material moving
occupations........................ 141 110 -31 -22.2 Short-term on-the-job training
Door-to-door sales workers, news and street
vendors, and related workers.................. Sales and related occupations........ 182 155 -27 -14.8 Short-term on-the-job training
Information and record clerks, all other........ Office and administrative support
occupations........................ 227 200 -27 -11.8 Short-term on-the-job training
Paper goods machine setters, operators, and
tenders....................................... Production occupations............... 103 81 -22 -21.5 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Computer operators.............................. Office and administrative support
occupations........................ 110 90 -21 -18.6 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Machinists...................................... Production occupations............... 422 402 -19 -4.6 Long-term on-the-job training
Laborers and freight, stock, and material
movers, hand.................................. Transportation and material moving
occupations........................ 2,317 2,299 -19 -.8 Short-term on-the-job training
Miscellaneous agricultural workers.............. Farming, fishing, and forestry
occupations........................ 807 789 -18 -2.3 Short-term on-the-job training
Data entry keyers............................... Office and administrative support
occupations........................ 284 267 -17 -6.1 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and
weighers...................................... Production occupations............... 465 448 -17 -3.6 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Switchboard operators, including answering
service....................................... Office and administrative support
occupations........................ 155 138 -17 -10.9 Short-term on-the-job training
Mail clerks and mail machine operators,
except postal service......................... Office and administrative support
occupations........................ 141 125 -17 -11.8 Short-term on-the-job training
Lathe and turning machine tool setters,
operators and tenders, metal and plastic...... Production occupations............... 56 41 -15 -26.7 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Grinding, lapping, polishing, and buffing
machine tool setters, operators, and
tenders, metal and plastic.................... Production occupations............... 93 78 -15 -15.9 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Textile winding, twisting, and drawing out
machine setters, operators, and tenders....... Production occupations............... 35 21 -14 -40.7 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Postal service clerks........................... Office and administrative support
occupations........................ 76 62 -14 -18.0 Short-term on-the-job training
Multiple machine tool setters, operators,
and tenders, metal and plastic................ Production occupations............... 86 73 -13 -14.7 Moderate-term on-the-job training
Photographic processing machine operators....... Production occupations............... 51 39 -13 -24.3 Short-term on-the-job training
1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become
fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Measures of Education and training, on the Internet at www.bls.gov/
emp/ep_projections_methods.htm.
2 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
Table 9. Employment and total job openings by postsecondary education or training category, 2008-18
(In thousands)
Total job openings
Employment due to growth and
Most significant source of postsecondary Percent Change replacement needs,
education or training (1) Number distribution 2008-18 2008-18 (2)
2008 2018 2008 2018 Number Percent Number Percent
Total, all occupations........................ 150,932 166,206 100.0 100.0 15,274 10.1 50,929 100.0
First professional degree.......................... 2,001 2,354 1.3 1.4 353 17.6 746 1.5
Doctoral degree.................................... 2,085 2,430 1.4 1.5 345 16.6 743 1.5
Master's degree.................................... 2,531 2,995 1.7 1.8 464 18.3 1,008 2.0
Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience.. 6,518 7,068 4.3 4.3 550 8.4 2,106 4.1
Bachelor's degree.................................. 18,584 21,669 12.3 13.0 3,085 16.6 7,072 13.9
Associate degree................................... 6,129 7,297 4.1 4.4 1,168 19.1 2,372 4.7
Postsecondary vocational award..................... 8,787 9,951 5.8 6.0 1,164 13.2 2,927 5.7
Work experience in a related occupation............ 14,517 15,697 9.6 9.4 1,180 8.1 4,196 8.2
Long-term on-the-job training...................... 10,815 11,620 7.2 7.0 806 7.5 3,081 6.1
Moderate-term on-the-job training.................. 24,568 26,531 16.3 16.0 1,963 8.0 7,058 13.9
Short-term on-the-job training..................... 54,396 58,593 36.0 35.3 4,197 7.7 19,619 38.5
1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by
most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, please see Measures
of Education and Training, on the Internet at www.bls.gov/emp/ep_projections_methods.htm.
2 Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and replacement needs. If employment change is negative,
job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal replacements.
Table 10. The 30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to growth and replacements, 2008-18
(In thousands)
Total job Most significant
openings source of post-
Occupation Occupational group Employment Change Replace- due to growth secondary education
ment and or training (2)
2008 2018 Number needs replacements (1)
Cashiers, except gaming................ Sales and related occupations.... 3,550 3,676 126 1,594 1,720 Short-term on-the-job
training
Retail salespersons.................... Sales and related occupations.... 4,489 4,864 375 1,252 1,627 Short-term on-the-job
training
Waiters and waitresses................. Service occupations (3).......... 2,382 2,533 152 1,315 1,466 Short-term on-the-job
training
Customer service representatives....... Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the-job
support occupations............ 2,252 2,652 400 709 1,108 training
Registered nurses...................... Professional and related
occupations (4)................ 2,619 3,200 582 458 1,039 Associate degree
Combined food preparation and serving Short-term on-the-job
workers, including fast food......... Service occupations (3).......... 2,702 3,096 394 573 967 training
Office clerks, general................. Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
support occupations............ 3,024 3,383 359 412 771 training
Laborers and freight, stock, and
material movers, hand................ Transportation and material Short-term on-the-job
moving occupations............. 2,317 2,299 -19 746 746 training
Elementary school teachers, except
special education.................... Professional and related
occupations (4)................ 1,550 1,794 244 352 597 Bachelor's degree
Stock clerks and order fillers......... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
support occupations............ 1,859 1,993 134 428 563 training
Truck drivers, heavy and
tractor-trailer...................... Transportation and material Short-term on-the-job
moving occupations............. 1,798 2,031 233 322 555 training
Janitors and cleaners, except maids
and housekeeping cleaners............ Service occupations (3).......... 2,375 2,479 104 449 553 Short-term on-the-job
training
Postsecondary teachers................. Professional and related
occupations (4)................ 1,699 1,956 257 296 553 Doctoral degree
Home health aides...................... Service occupations (3).......... 922 1,383 461 92 553 Short-term on-the-job
training
Child care workers..................... Service occupations (3).......... 1,302 1,444 142 381 523 Short-term on-the-job
training
General and operations managers........ Management, business, and Bachelor's or higher degree,
financial occupations (5)...... 1,733 1,731 -2 502 502 plus work experience
Accountants and auditors............... Management, business, and
financial occupations (5)...... 1,291 1,570 279 218 498 Bachelor's degree
First-line supervisors/managers of
office and administrative Office and administrative Work experience in a related
support workers...................... support occupations............ 1,457 1,618 160 329 489 occupation
Receptionists and information
clerks............................... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
support occupations............ 1,139 1,312 173 307 480 training
Personal and home care aides........... Service occupations (3).......... 817 1,193 376 102 478 Short-term on-the-job
training
Bookkeeping, accounting, and
auditing clerks...................... Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the-job
support occupations............ 2,064 2,276 212 248 460 training
Sales representatives, wholesale and
manufacturing, except technical Work experience in a related
and scientific products.............. Sales and related occupations.... 1,540 1,641 101 357 458 occupation
First-line supervisors/managers of
retail sales workers................. Sales and related occupations.... 1,686 1,774 88 362 450 Work experience in a related
occupation
Counter attendants, cafeteria, food
concession, and coffee shop.......... Service occupations (3).......... 525 574 49 386 435 Short-term on-the-job
training
Nursing aides, orderlies, and
attendants........................... Service occupations (3).......... 1,470 1,746 276 146 422 Postsecondary vocational
award
Executive secretaries and
administrative assistants............ Office and administrative Work experience in a related
support occupations............ 1,594 1,799 204 215 419 occupation
Teacher assistants..................... Professional and related Short-term on-the-job
occupations (4)................ 1,313 1,448 135 278 413 training
Secondary school teachers,
except special and vocational........ Professional and related
occupations (4)................ 1,088 1,184 96 316 412 Bachelor's degree
Licensed practical and licensed
vocational nurses.................... Professional and related Postsecondary vocational
occupations (4)................ 754 909 156 236 391 award
Security guards........................ Service occupations (3).......... 1,077 1,229 153 222 374 Short-term on-the-job
training
1 Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth
are zero and total job openings equal replacements. For more information about occupational replacement needs, see Estimating Occupational
Replacement Needs, on the Internet at www.bls.gov/emp/ep_projections_methods.htm.
2 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become
fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Measures of Education and Training, on the Internet at
www.bls.gov/emp/ep_projections_methods.htm.
3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
4 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
5 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
United States Department of Labor
