For release 10:00 a.m. (EST) Thursday, December 10, 2009 USDL-09-1503
Technical information: (202) 691-5700 * ep-info@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/emp
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
NOTE: This release was reissued on Friday, December 11, 2009, to correct
the website address in the footnote in tables 6-10. This correction did
not affect any data or analysis in the release.
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS--2008-18
Total employment is projected to increase by 15.3 million, or 10.1 percent,
during the 2008-18 period, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
The projections show an aging and more racially and ethnically diverse labor
force, and employment growth in service-providing industries. More than half of
the new jobs will be in professional and related occupations and service occupa-
tions. In addition, occupations where a postsecondary degree or award is usually
required are expected to account for one-third of total job openings during the
projection period. Job openings from replacement needs--those which occur when
workers who retire or otherwise leave their occupations need to be replaced--
are projected to be more than double the number of openings due to economic
growth.
The projected growth for the 2008-18 period is larger than the increase of 10.4
million over the 1998-2008 period, or 7.4 percent. The relatively slow growth
rate for the earlier 10-year period was affected by the recession which began
in December 2007, and the projected growth rate is higher than would otherwise
be expected because the 2008 starting point is a recession year.
This news release focuses on four areas for which BLS develops projections--labor
force, industry employment, occupational employment, and education and training.
Labor Force
The civilian labor force is projected to grow by 12.6 million between 2008 and
2018, to 166.9 million persons. Slower population growth and a decreasing over-
all labor force participation rate are expected to contribute to a slowdown in
labor force growth. The projected 8.2-percent increase for the 2008-18 period
is less than the 12.1-percent growth that occurred between 1998 and 2008. (See
table 1.)
As the members of the large baby boom generation grow older and continue their
trend of increased labor force participation, the number of persons age 55 years
and older in the labor force is expected to increase by 12.0 million, or 43.0
percent, during the 2008-18 period. Persons in the 55 years and older age group
are projected to make up nearly one-quarter of the labor force in 2018. Young
people (age 16-24) are expected to account for 12.7 percent of the labor force
in 2018, and persons in the prime-age working group (age 25 to 54) to account
for 63.5 percent of the 2018 labor force.
The labor force in 2018 will be more diverse. As a result of higher population
growth among minorities--due to higher birth rates and increased immigration,
along with higher labor force participation rates by Hispanics and Asians--the
share of the labor force held by minorities is projected to increase signifi-
cantly. Whites will remain the largest race group in the labor force in 2018
(79.4 percent) despite growing by just 5.5 percent between 2008 and 2018. The
number of Asians in the labor force is projected to increase by 29.8 percent
and the number of blacks by 14.1 percent. In 2018, Asians are projected to com-
prise 5.6 percent of the labor force and blacks to make up 12.1 percent.
Hispanics (who can be of any race) will join the labor force in greater numbers
than non-Hispanics. The number of Hispanics in the labor force is projected to
grow by 7.3 million or 33.1 percent. Their share of the labor force will expand
from 14.3 percent in 2008 to 17.6 percent in 2018. In contrast, the number of per-
sons in the labor force not of Hispanic origin is expected to grow by 4.0 percent,
and their share of the labor force to decline to 82.4 percent.
Industry Employment
Projected employment growth is concentrated in the service-providing sector, con-
tinuing a long-term shift from the goods-producing sector of the economy. From
2008 to 2018, service-providing industries are projected to add 14.6 million
jobs, or 96 percent of the increase in total employment. The 2 industry sectors
expected to have the largest employment growth are professional and business
services (4.2 million) and health care and social assistance (4.0 million).
Goods-producing employment, as a whole, is expected to show virtually no growth.
While employment in the construction industry is projected to increase by 1.3
million, declines in manufacturing (-1.2 million) and mining (-104,000) will
nearly offset this growth. By 2018, the goods-producing sector is expected to
account for 12.9 percent of total jobs, down from 17.3 percent in 1998 and 14.2
percent in 2008. (See table 2.)
Three of the 10 detailed industries projected to have the most employment growth
are in professional and business services: management, scientific, and technical
consulting; computer systems design; and employment services. Altogether, these
3 industries are expected to add 2.1 million jobs. Four of the top 10 gainers
are in health care and social assistance industries. Employment in offices of
physicians, home health care, services for the elderly and persons with disabil-
ities, and nursing care facilities is expected to grow by 2.0 million. (See
table 3.)
Of the 10 detailed industries with the largest projected employment declines,
4 are in the manufacturing sector and 2 each are within retail trade and in-
formation. The largest decline among the detailed industries is expected to
be in department stores, with a loss of 159,000 jobs, followed by manufacturers
of semiconductors (-146,000) and motor vehicle parts (-101,000). (See table 4.)
Occupational Employment
Two major occupational groups--professional and related occupations and service
occupations--are projected to provide more than half of the total employment
growth during the 2008-18 period. Production occupations are projected to decline.
The 30 detailed occupations with the largest gains in employment are expected to
account for nearly half of all new jobs, and 17 of these occupations are profes-
sional and related occupations and service occupations. The detailed occupation
projected to add the most jobs is registered nurses (582,000), followed by home
health aides (461,000) and customer service representatives (400,000). All but 3
of the top 30 fastest-growing detailed occupations are found within professional
and related occupations and service occupations. Seventeen of these rapidly grow-
ing occupations are related to healthcare or medical research. (See tables 5, 6,
and 7.)
Of the 30 detailed occupations projected to have the largest employment declines,
12 are production occupations and 11 are office and administrative support occupa-
tions. (See table 8.)
Education and Training
Occupations that usually require a postsecondary degree or award are expected to
account for nearly half of all new jobs from 2008 to 2018 and one-third of total
job openings. Among the education and training categories, the fastest growth will
occur in occupations requiring an associate degree. (See table 9.)
Short- and moderate-term on-the-job training are the most significant sources of
postsecondary education or training for 17 of the 30 detailed occupations projected
to have the largest employment growth. However, in terms of percent growth, 14 of
the 30 fastest growing detailed occupations have a bachelor's degree or higher as
the most significant source of postsecondary education or training. (See tables 6
and 7.)
Of the 30 detailed occupations projected to have the largest employment declines,
17 are classified as having short-term on-the-job training as the most significant
source of education and training, and 10 are in the moderate-term on-the-job train-
ing category. (See table 8.)
Total job openings during the 2008-18 period are projected to be 50.9 million, and
19.6 million of these jobs are expected to be in the short-term on-the-job training
category. Sixteen of the 30 detailed occupations with the most job openings will
have short-term on-the-job training as the most significant source of education and
training. (See tables 9 and 10.)
A Note on Labor Shortages in the Context of Long-Term Economic Projections
Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected in-
crease in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor
shortage or surplus. Employment and labor force measures differ in concept. Employ-
ment is a count of jobs, and persons who hold more than one job would be counted for
each job. Labor force is a count of individuals, and a person is counted only once
regardless of how many jobs he or she holds. In addition, the BLS projections assume
a labor market in equilibrium, that is, one where labor supply meets labor demand
except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic
projection methodology, see "Employment projections, 2008-18," Kristina Bartsch,
November 2009 Monthly Labor Review.
More Information
The 10-year projections of industry and occupational employment, labor force, and
economic growth are widely used in career guidance, in education and training pro-
gram planning, and in studying long-range employment trends. The projections,
which are updated every 2 years, provide information to individuals who are making
decisions regarding education and training, entering the job market, or changing
careers.
More detailed information on the 2008-18 projections appears in five articles in
the November 2009 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. The Monthly Labor Review is available
online at www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/mlrhome.htm.
The 2010-11 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and the Career Guide to
Industries will feature the 2008-18 projections in assessing job prospects, work
activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more for numerous occu-
pations and industries. The updated Handbook and Career Guide will be available
online on December 17, 2009, at www.bls.gov/oco and www.bls.gov/oco/cg/, respec-
tively. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections appears in the
Winter 2009-10 issue of the Occupational Outlook Quarterly, available online on
December 10, 2009, at www.bls.gov/ooq.
Tables with detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the projections
are available online at www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm and projections methodology
can be accessed at www.bls.gov/emp/ep_projections_methods.htm.
Print versions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and Occupational Outlook Quar-
terly are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20401. To
order, visit www.bls.gov/emp/ep_current_publications.htm.
Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals
upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Services: (800) 877-8339.
