Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until
8:30 a.m. (EST) Thursday, February 20, 2014 USDL-14-0253
Technical information: (202) 691-7000 Reed.Steve@bls.gov www.bls.gov/cpi
Media Contact: (202) 691-5902 PressOffice@bls.gov
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - JANUARY 2014
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent
in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.6
percent before seasonal adjustment.
Increases in the indexes for household energy accounted for most of the
all items increase. The electricity index posted its largest increase since
March 2010, and the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil also rose sharply.
These increases more than offset a decline in the gasoline index, resulting
in a 0.6 percent increase in the energy index.
The index for all items less food and energy also rose 0.1 percent in January.
A 0.3 percent increase in the shelter index was the major contributor to the
rise, but the indexes for medical care, recreation, personal care, and tobacco
also increased. In contrast, the indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks,
new vehicles, and apparel all declined in January. The food index rose slightly
in January. The index for food at home rose 0.1 percent, with major grocery
store food groups mixed.
The all items index increased 1.6 percent over the last 12 months; this compares
to a 1.5 percent increase for the 12 months ending December. The index for all
items less food and energy has also risen 1.6 percent over the last 12 months.
The energy index has risen 2.1 percent over the span, and the food index has
increased 1.1 percent.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
Seasonally adjusted changes from
July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. ended
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 Jan.
All items.................. .2 .1 .1 .0 .1 .2 .1 1.6
Food...................... .1 .1 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 1.1
Food at home............. .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .5
Food away from home (1).. .2 .2 .1 .1 .3 .1 .1 2.0
Energy.................... .2 -.4 .3 -.9 -.4 1.6 .6 2.1
Energy commodities....... .7 -.4 -.1 -1.5 -.8 2.6 -.5 .5
Gasoline (all types).... .8 -.5 -.2 -1.6 -.8 2.6 -1.0 .1
Fuel oil (1)............ 1.1 1.2 .9 -.6 .4 2.4 3.7 2.0
Energy services.......... -.6 -.5 .8 .1 .0 .1 2.2 4.5
Electricity............. -.1 -.1 .5 .2 .5 .4 1.8 4.4
Utility (piped) gas
service.............. -2.1 -1.8 1.6 -.5 -1.5 -1.0 3.6 4.9
All items less food and
energy................. .2 .1 .1 .1 .2 .1 .1 1.6
Commodities less food and
energy commodities.... .0 .0 -.1 -.1 .0 .0 -.1 -.3
New vehicles............ .0 .0 .1 -.1 -.1 .0 -.3 .0
Used cars and trucks.... -.4 -.1 .3 .4 .3 .0 -.5 1.5
Apparel................. .6 .2 -.4 -.4 -.1 .4 -.3 -.3
Medical care commodities .2 .3 .2 .3 .1 -.6 .5 .8
Services less energy
services.............. .2 .2 .2 .2 .3 .1 .2 2.3
Shelter................. .2 .2 .2 .1 .3 .2 .3 2.6
Transportation services .5 -.3 .2 .4 .3 -.4 .1 1.2
Medical care services... .2 .6 .3 .0 .0 .2 .2 2.5
1 Not seasonally adjusted.
Consumer Price Index Data for January 2014
The food index rose 0.1 percent in January. The food at home index increased 0.1
percent, with the major grocery store food group indexes mixed. Three of the six
increased, including the indexes for cereals and bakery products and for dairy
and related products, which both rose 0.5 percent. The index for meats, poultry,
fish, and eggs also increased, rising 0.4 percent. In contrast, the fruits and
vegetables index declined in January, falling 0.3 percent, while the index for
nonalcoholic beverages fell 0.2 percent. The index for other food at home was
unchanged in January. The food index has risen 1.1 percent over the past year,
with the food at home index up 0.5 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish,
and eggs has risen 3.3 percent over the last 12 months. The index for cereals
and bakery products has also risen over that span, but the other major grocery
store food group indexes have declined. The index for food away from home rose
0.1 percent in January and has increased 2.0 percent over the last 12 months.
The energy index rose 0.6 percent in January as a decline in the gasoline index
was more than offset by increases in household energy components. The
electricity index rose 1.8 percent, its largest increase since March 2010. The
index for natural gas also rose sharply, increasing 3.6 percent, and the fuel oil
index increased 3.7 percent. The gasoline index, which rose in December, fell 1.0
percent in January. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 1.4 percent
in January.) The energy index has increased 2.1 percent over the last year, with
all major components posting increases, though the gasoline index has increased
only 0.1 percent.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in January. The
shelter index rose 0.3 percent, with the indexes for rent and owners' equivalent
rent both rising 0.2 percent, and the index for lodging away from home advancing
1.3 percent. The medical care index rose 0.3 percent in January. The index for
medical care commodities advanced 0.5 percent as the prescription drug index rose
0.6 percent. The index for medical care services increased 0.2 percent. The
recreation index rose 0.2 percent, as did the index for personal care. The
tobacco index increased 0.7 percent, its largest increase since July. In contrast
to these increases, the index for airline fares fell sharply in January, declining
2.2 percent. The index for used cars and trucks fell 0.5 percent. The new vehicles
index declined as well, falling 0.3 percent. The apparel index, which rose in
December, also declined 0.3 percent. The index for household furnishings and
operations was unchanged in January.
The index for all items less food and energy has risen 1.6 percent over the last
12 months; this is the smallest 12-month change since June. The shelter index has
risen 2.6 percent over the last 12 months, while the medical care index has risen
2.1 percent. The indexes for airline fares and apparel have both declined over the
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.6 percent
over the last 12 months to an index level of 233.916 (1982-84=100). For the month,
the index rose 0.4 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
increased 1.6 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 230.040
(1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.4 percent prior to seasonal
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 1.4
percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index rose 0.4 percent on a not
seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the post-2012 period
are subject to revision.
The Consumer Price Index for February 2014 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday,
March 18, 2014, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
C-CPI-U Index Revisions
As scheduled, effective with this release of data for January 2014, the Chained
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) has undergone its annual
revision. Because the current expenditure data required for the calculation of
the C-CPI-U are available only with a time lag, the index is issued first in
preliminary form, using the latest available expenditure data at the time of
publication, and is subject to two subsequent revisions. Therefore, C-CPI-U
indexes for the 12 months of 2012 are issued in final form - employing monthly
expenditure weights from 2012. Values for the 12 months of 2013 are revised and
issued as interim, using expenditure weights from the 2011-2012 period.
Calculation of the initial value of the January 2014 C-CPI-U index, and all
subsequent months in 2014, will also be based upon 2011-2012 expenditure weights.
Expenditure Weight Update
Effective with this release of the January 2014 CPI, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) has updated the consumption expenditure weights in the Consumer
Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage
Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to the 2011-2012 period. The updated
expenditure weights for these indexes replace the 2009-2010 weights that were
introduced effective with the January 2012 CPI release.
Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) Annual
Average Indexes Discontinued
The final revisions of the C-CPI-U indexes for 2012 are available as of February
2014. Annual average indexes for C-CPI-U series will not be published for time
periods after 2012. (Monthly C-CPI-U indexes will continue to be published.) In
February 2014, the annual average indexes for the final estimates for 2012 C-CPI-U
series will be published in the public CPI database. Table 1CA will not be published.
Facilities for Sensory Impaired
Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals
upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over
time of goods and services purchased by households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers households of wage earners and clerical
workers that comprise approximately 29 percent of the total population and (2) the
CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers
(C-CPI-U), which covers approximately 88 percent of the total population and include
in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as
professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term
workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels, transportation
fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs, and other goods and
services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in
87 urban areas across the country from about 4,000 housing units and approximately
26,000 retail establishments-department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling
stations, and other types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly
associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of
fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations. Prices of
most other commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest
geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and
services are obtained by personal visits or telephone calls of the Bureau's
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are
averaged together with weights, which represent their importance in the spending of
the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city
average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city,
by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size
classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in the level
of prices among cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area
since the base period. For the C-CPI-U data are issued only at the national level.
It is important to note that the CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final when released,
but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For the CPI-U and the
CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is
December 1999 equals 100. An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for
example, is shown as 116.500. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows:
the price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has risen
from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/cpi/
or contact our CPI Information and Analysis Section on (202) 691-7000.
Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is
based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices.
BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month
percent change standard errors annually, for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates
can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the
estimated standard error of the 1 month percent change is 0.04 percent for the U.S. All
Items Consumer Price Index. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe
of all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for
each sample, then 95% of these estimates would be within 0.08 percent of the 1 month
percentage change based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1-month change of
0.2 percent in the All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95 percent confident
that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.12 and
0.28 percent. For the latest data, including information on how to use the estimates
of standard error, see "Variance Estimates for Price Changes in the Consumer Price
Index, January-December 2012". These data are available on the CPI home page
(http://www.bls.gov/cpi), or by using the following link:
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually expressed as percent
changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected
by the level of the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are not.
The example below illustrates the computation of index point and percent changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as annual rates and are
computed according to the standard formula for compound growth rates. These data
indicate what the percent change would be if the current rate were maintained for a
Index Point Change
Less previous index 201.800
Equals index point change .616
Index point difference .616
Divided by the previous index 201.800
Results multiplied by one hundred 0.003x100
Equals percent change 0.3
A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Because price data are used for different purposes by different groups, the Bureau of
Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as well as unadjusted changes each month.
For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually
preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time
and in about the same magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from changing
climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they
actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used extensively for escalation purposes. Many
collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation
changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation.
Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes are derived by the
X-13ARIMA-SEATS Seasonal Adjustment Method. Seasonally adjusted indexes and seasonal
factors are computed annually. Each year, the last five years of seasonally adjusted data
are revised. Data from January 2009 through December 2013 were replaced in January 2014.
Exceptions to the usual revision schedule were: the updated seasonal data at the end of
1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977; and, in January 2002, dependently seasonally
adjusted series were revised for January 1987-December 2001 as a result of a change in
the aggregation weights for dependently adjusted series. For further information, please
see "Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Series," in the October 2001
issue of the CPI Detailed Report.
Effective with the publication of data from January 2006 through December 2010 in January
2011, the Video and audio series and the Information technology, hardware and services
series were changed from independently adjusted to dependently adjusted. This resulted in
an increase in the number of seasonal components used in deriving seasonal movement of the
All items and 64 other lower level aggregations, from 73 for the publication of January
1998 through December 2005 data to 82 for the publication of seasonally adjusted data for
January 2006 and later. Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based
upon certain statistical criteria. If any of the 82 components change their seasonal
adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally
adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last five
years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed.
Note: 35 of the 82 components are not seasonally adjusted for 2014.
Seasonally adjusted data, including the all items index levels, are subject to revision for
up to five years after their original release. For this reason, BLS advises against the
use of these data in escalation agreements.
Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment procedure called Intervention Analysis
Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI series. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows
for better estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or sharp movements
which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated and removed from the data prior to
calculation of seasonal factors. Beginning with the calculation of seasonal factors for
1996, X-12-ARIMA software was used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment. In
2014, for the 2009-2013 revisions, the Bureau of Labor Statistics began using
X-13ARIMA-SEATS to perform the seasonal adjustment of CPI series, including Intervention
Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for certain series.
For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2014, BLS adjusted 31 series using
Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including selected food and beverage items,
motor fuels, electricity and vehicles. For example, this procedure was used for the Motor
fuel series to offset the effects of events such as the response in crude oil markets to
the worldwide economic downturn in 2008.
For a complete list of Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment series and explanations,
please refer to the article "Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment", located on our
website at http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisapage.htm.
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please write to the Bureau
of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices and Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212
or contact Chris Graci at (202) 691-5826, or by e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org, or
contact Carlyle Jackson at (202) 691-6984, or by e-mail at email@example.com .
If you have general questions about the CPI, please call our information staff at
Revised seasonally adjusted changes
Over-the-month percent changes in the U.S. City Average Consumer Price Index for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for All Items and for All Items less food and energy, seasonally
adjusted, using former and recalculated seasonal factors for 2013.
2013 Former Recalculated Difference
January .0 .1 .1
February .7 .6 -.1
March -.2 -.2 .0
April -.4 -.2 .2
May .1 .2 .1
June .5 .3 -.2
July .2 .2 .0
August .1 .1 .0
September .2 .1 -.1
October -.1 .0 .1
November .0 .1 .1
December .3 .2 -.1
All Items less food and energy
2013 Former Recalculated Difference
January .3 .2 -.1
February .2 .2 .0
March .1 .1 .0
April .1 .1 .0
May .2 .1 .1
June .2 .2 .0
July .2 .2 .0
August .1 .1 .0
September .1 .1 .0
October .1 .1 .0
November .2 .2 .0
December .1 .1 .0