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Labor force participation projections among age groups from 2014 to 2024
December 29, 2015
The labor force participation rate—the proportion of the civilian population that is working or seeking work—is highest among 25- to-54-year-olds. This is the age group with the strongest link to the labor market. This group’s labor force participation rate has been higher than 80 percent for the last several decades. Since 2000, however, the rate has been declining in most years.
People born between 1965 and 1975 will be in the ages of their highest participation rates during the 2014–24 timeframe. However, because this group is much smaller than that of the baby boomers (those born from 1946 to 1964), the number of 25- to 54-year-olds will shrink as baby boomers reach ages with much lower participation rates.
Labor force participation rates of 25-to-54-year-olds, 1994–2014 and projected from 2014–24
Year
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
1994
83.0
83.3
84.3
85.4
84.2
78.5
1995
83.4
84.2
84.3
85.0
83.8
78.3
1996
84.2
83.9
84.5
85.2
84.3
79.2
1997
84.8
84.0
84.7
85.4
84.3
80.5
1998
84.9
84.4
84.2
85.3
84.7
79.9
1999
84.6
84.7
84.1
85.1
84.5
80.3
2000
84.5
84.7
84.3
85.3
84.5
80.3
2001
83.7
84.4
84.3
85.0
84.2
80.2
2002
83.5
83.9
83.8
84.4
83.8
80.1
2003
82.5
83.3
83.5
84.3
83.8
80.2
2004
82.0
83.4
83.5
83.8
83.7
79.8
2005
82.4
83.2
83.5
84.0
83.4
79.8
2006
82.9
83.2
83.6
84.0
83.4
80.3
2007
83.1
83.6
83.4
84.2
83.4
80.4
2008
83.1
83.6
83.8
84.3
83.3
80.4
2009
82.1
83.3
83.6
83.7
82.9
80.3
2010
82.0
82.4
83.1
83.4
82.6
79.8
2011
81.1
81.9
82.5
82.9
82.2
79.2
2012
81.3
82.0
82.3
82.8
81.7
78.8
2013
80.6
81.9
82.1
82.3
81.2
78.3
2014
80.5
81.9
82.1
82.2
81.1
78.2
2015 (projected)
80.5
82.1
82.1
82.2
81.2
78.4
2016 (projected)
80.4
82.1
82.0
82.1
81.2
78.5
2017 (projected)
80.4
82.2
82.0
82.0
81.2
78.7
2018 (projected)
80.4
82.2
82.0
82.0
81.2
78.9
2019 (projected)
80.3
82.2
82.0
81.9
81.2
79.1
2020 (projected)
80.3
82.3
81.9
81.8
81.2
79.2
2021 (projected)
80.3
82.3
81.9
81.7
81.2
79.4
2022 (projected)
80.2
82.3
81.9
81.6
81.2
79.6
2023 (projected)
80.2
82.4
81.9
81.6
81.2
79.8
2024 (projected)
80.1
82.4
81.9
81.5
81.2
79.9
The participation rate of 25- to 34-year-olds also has mostly declined since 2000. The group had a participation rate of 83.2 percent in 1994, declining to 82.7 percent in 2004. The rate then fell to 81.2 percent in 2014 and is projected to stay essentially flat in the next decade.
Two other age groups—those 35 to 44 years old and those 45 to 54 years old—also have seen their participation rates decline since 2000. The labor force participation rates of these two groups were 83.6 percent and 81.8 percent, respectively, in 2004, falling to 82.2 percent and 79.6 percent in 2014.
Over the 2014–24 timeframe, 35- to-44-year-olds are expected to have a declining participation rate, dropping from 82.2 percent to 81.7 percent. The 45- to-54-year-old group is projected to have a slightly increasing participation rate, going from 79.6 percent to 81.0 percent.
United States Department of Labor
