Has the Labor Market Recovered from the COVID-19 Pandemic?

I recently had the pleasure of speaking at the National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference, regarding labor market recovery. Today I’m sharing some highlights from that talk, updated to include the latest BLS data.

There continues to be widespread interest in how well U.S. labor markets are recovering from the massive job losses at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only does this interest involve counting the number of jobs, but it also includes shifts in labor skills and changes in compensation levels. Some parts of the labor market may emerge from a recession very differently from how they entered. This difference could be in skills required, compensation, changes in the workplace, or a worker’s use of capital. Thus, we always should consider the possibility that recovery in a labor market will differ from what we had before the economic shock. In other words, we should be ready to be surprised.

What does “labor market recovery” mean? According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the pandemic-related recession lasted just 2 months in the first half of 2020. But we know resumption of work varied considerably over the past 2 years, with some industries maintaining or even expanding employment in the early months of the pandemic, while others continue a slower return to pre-pandemic work levels.

Let’s now step through some ways to understand labor market recovery. Many observers would define recovery as a return to the employment levels before the recession, or, in our case, before the economic collapse and slower economic activity as the pandemic continued. We measure this definition of recovery by the number of jobs below and above the February 2020 levels. Based on our most recent data releases, total nonfarm employment, as measured by the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, has recovered 93 percent of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. This chart shows the change in employment since February 2020 for major industry groups. It’s easy to see industries with large gains and industries that have not yet recovered their previous employment level.

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

However, this straightforward definition of recovery does not account for the growth in the civilian population (16 years and older) over the past 2 years, which constitutes the base of employment and potential employment. The U.S. population age 16 and older grew by around 3.8 million between February 2020 and March 2022. Thus, we could define recovery as total jobs from February 2020 plus additional employment to account for population growth.

Of course, that does not account for one of the principal labor market characteristics of the past 2 years: The number of workers who left the labor force and never returned. Looking at data from the Current Population Survey, we learn that many of those people who are not in the labor force indicate that they want a job but are not looking. That number rose by nearly 5 million at the beginning of the pandemic but has declined significantly since then. In fact, it was still 741,000 higher in March 2022 than in February of 2020. And we still have nearly a million people who say they are not looking for work now because of the pandemic.

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

In addition to these straightforward concepts of recovery, our colleagues at the Bureau of Economic Analysis report on our nation’s output of goods and services, called Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Nominal GDP was $4.5 trillion higher in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the depths of the recession in the second quarter of 2020; after adjusting for inflation, real GDP was $2.5 trillion higher. Both nominal and real GDP were also higher in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the quarters before the pandemic and recession. The recovery in output implies that the current labor force is enough to support more GDP than we had in the pre-pandemic economy.

Likewise, the BLS index of total private sector labor hours is 99.9 percent recovered from its February 2020 level.

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

Still another way to think about labor market recovery is to measure the return of demand for labor. Labor demand is tricky because it is driven by so many factors in the product and service markets. That said, some recent evidence is instructive. In February 2022, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey reported 11.3 million job openings, which is near a historical high. Hires stood at 6.7 million, and separations at 6.1 million. That’s a hires rate of 4.4 percent, little changed from the prior 12 months. In short, demand is high and rising, but hires remain relatively flat and at a normal level.

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

Finally, there’s the issue of labor force participation, the percentage of people age 16 and older who either are working or have looked for work in the past 4 weeks. The latest rate is 62.4 percent in March 2022, up from a low of 60.2 percent in April 2020. However, the rate stood at 63.4 percent in January and February of 2020.

For people ages 25 to 54, the March 2022 labor force participation rate for men was 88.7 percent, compared with 89.3 percent in January 2020. For women, the March 2022 rate was 76.5 percent, down from 76.9 percent in January 2020. Both rates, but particularly the rate for women, were buffeted by the waves of infections and the closing of schools and daycare facilities.

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

Let me conclude with a few observations. First, we see total work hours returning to their pre-pandemic level and GDP increasing. Labor force participation continues to lag its pre-pandemic rate. The recovery in output suggests the lagging labor force participation may result from demographic and other social factors, and not just economic conditions.