Finding current events in the data — a look at strikes among writers and actors

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

BLS measures of the economy are closely watched, and data users often try to find the impact of current events in the data. We get asked all the time about items in the news, such as how rising gas prices or the shortage in baby formula show up in the Consumer Price Index or how extensive damage due to hurricanes or fires impact employment. Today, let’s explore various BLS series to see the impact of the current strikes affecting movie and television writers and actors. (Not part of this discussion is any impacts of other recent strikes, such as the United Auto Workers strike against three automakers that began on September 15, 2023.)

On May 2, 2023, the Writers Guild of America West and the Writers Guild of America East began a strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers. Individuals who belong to the two Writers Guilds write current scripted movies and television shows. These writers went on strike in part due to dissatisfaction with their work arrangements, as they were not being placed on payrolls and were instead treated as contractors. These work arrangements affect how the strike shows up in BLS data—if at all.

On July 14, 2023, the Screen Actors Guild/American Federation of Television and Radio Actors (SAG-AFTRA) began a strike, also against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers. These individuals work as actors on a variety of productions, including movies and television shows (including those produced through streaming services). As their name implies, these individuals also work as actors on radio productions, likely a less common activity today. These actors have a variety of work arrangements. They may be on current contracts with a production company, in which case they might show up on a company payroll. They may be treated as contractors, in which case they might not show up on a company payroll. Or they may be between acting jobs. And again, like the writers, their work arrangement may affect how they appear in BLS data.

Let’s look for the striking workers in BLS programs.

The BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) program provides monthly estimates of the number of workers on employer payrolls, with considerable detail by industry. Estimates reflect the pay period that includes the 12^th of the month. Individuals who worked or received pay for the pay period—even if only for an hour or less—are counted as employed. We can look for any impact of the strikes in the “motion picture and sound recording industries,” which is part of the broader “Information” industry. While the writers’ strike began in May, because these individuals are largely treated as contractors, we would not expect to see any direct impact on CES data. The actors’ strike began after the July payroll reference period for CES, meaning any impact would begin to be observed with data for August. The following chart shows monthly payroll employment in the Information and Motion picture and sound recording industries beginning in April 2023. The data suggest little change in payroll employment over the period, reflecting in part the fact that writers don’t typically show up on these payrolls and only a fraction of striking actors would have been actively on payrolls when the strike began.

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

Of course, the strike could have secondary effects on employment. Other workers in the motion picture and sound recording industries may be out of work due to the shutdown of production activities. Because the industry employs workers in a wide range of occupations, affected workers could include gaffers, best boys and best girls, stagehands, sound and lighting technicians, wardrobe and makeup workers, construction and maintenance workers, food service workers, and others. Similarly, neighboring businesses in other industries could be impacted by the lack of work in an area, such as restaurants, hotels, and others.

For some perspective, here is a look at some recent information on occupations employed in the motion picture and sound recording industries, from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program (OEWS). Like CES, OEWS is an employer survey that does not include the self-employed. The first chart provides employment in selected occupations related to movie and TV production. The second chart provides employment in broader occupational groups that work in the motion picture and sound recording industries.

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

We can also look for any effect on employment in metropolitan areas that are known to be home to a lot of motion picture production activity, such as Los Angeles. Based on information from the BLS Current Employment Statistics State and Area Program, employment in motion picture and sound recording industries makes up about 3.2 percent of total private industry employment in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, California metropolitan division. That’s all occupations, not just writers and actors. While employment has dropped in recent months, as seen in this chart, such month-to-month changes are not unusual for this industry. There might also be secondary effects in other industries.

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

For a broader measure of the labor force, let’s explore the Current Population Survey (CPS), the household survey that is the source of the monthly unemployment rate and related labor market indicators. The CPS has a broader measure of employment because it includes all work activities, such as certain types of self-employment that would not show up on company payrolls. In the CPS, people are classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. People are employed if they have done any work for pay or profit. They are unemployed if they were not working but were available to work and actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks. They are not in the labor force if they are neither employed nor unemployed—that is, they are neither working nor looking for work. Further, people may indicate that they have a job but were not at work for a variety of reasons, such as vacation, illness, or due to a labor dispute. Given these CPS definitions, both striking writers and actors could be identified in the survey as “with a job, not at work, due to labor dispute.” But, as described below, classification depends on respondents’ answers to questions about their labor market activity in the reference week.

Since the start of the writers’ strike in May, there has been an uptick in those classified as “with a job, not at work, due to labor dispute,” including an increase among those in movie-related industries and occupations. As with the payroll data, the actors’ strike started after the July survey reference period, so any effect would first be seen in the August data. Note that the uptick in the labor dispute classification, while apparent, has a large standard error and therefore does not meet the standard for statistical significance.

As noted, the count of individuals in the “labor dispute” category depends on how respondents answer survey questions. In the CPS, individuals are asked if they worked (at least one hour) during the week of the 12^th of the month and, if not, whether they had a job from which they were absent (and the reason for their absence, which could be a labor dispute). If the answer to these questions is no, they are then asked about their availability for work and job search activity in the past four weeks. The nature of their work and how they consider their personal situation naturally influences the way they answer these questions. As such, CPS estimates of the number of employed people not at work due to a labor dispute may differ from the number of members of the Writers Guilds and Screen Actors Guild for several reasons. Guild members could answer in a variety of ways:

Some Guild members may have been working prior to the strike and may answer “no” to the first question about doing any work but may have been in the middle of a contract when the strike began and answer “yes” to the second question about having a job from which they were absent. In this case, they are classified as employed and absent from work due to a labor dispute and will show up in the chart below.
Other Guild members may not have been working on an active contract prior to the strike, so they may respond “no” to the question asking if they did any work and “no” to the question about having a job from which they were absent. These Guild members would then be asked about their availability for work and job-search activity in the past four weeks.

Guild members who were not working and were not absent from a job, but who were available to work and actively looked for work would be classified as unemployed.
Alternatively, those who were neither working nor looking for work (perhaps due to the strike) would be classified as not in the labor force.

Still another possibility is that writers (and actors) have another job in another industry (like the classic would-be actor working as a waiter), in which case they would be classified as employed (and counted in the other industry).

While the unique nature of their work likely results in individuals being classified in a variety of categories, the following chart identified those in selected industries classified as out of work due to a labor dispute over the past several months.

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

One BLS program where all members of the striking writers and actors Guilds are identified is the BLS monthly reports on Work Stoppages, which include strikes and lockouts affecting 1,000 or more workers and lasting one full shift or longer. BLS began reporting the striking writers in the monthly reports for May, showing 11,500 workers with a total of 977,500 days idled through the end of August based on a 5-day work week. Such reporting mirrors how a similar writers’ strike was reported in 2007 and 2008. Similarly, BLS began reporting 160,000 striking actors in the monthly report for July, with 5,600,000 days idled through the end of August. The number of striking workers reflects information from a variety of sources. Eligibility for membership is established by each union.

BLS will continue to update data for these strikes through the monthly reports of Work Stoppages. Other strikes affecting 1,000 or more workers, including the ongoing dispute involving the United Auto Workers and automobile manufacturers, will also be reported each month. Work stoppage data are available back to 1947. The following chart looks at trends since 1981.

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

BLS programs rely on strict definitions to ensure consistent data over time. In the case of the writers and actors strikes, their work arrangements and individual circumstances result in different reporting based on program definitions.

Payroll employment in selected industries, April–August, 2023
Industry	April	May	June	July (p)	August (p)
Information	3,095,000	3,091,000	3,081,000	3,066,000	3,051,000
Motion picture and sound recording industries	465,300	472,400	463,600	454,400	437,600

Employment in selected occupations in motion picture and sound recording industries, May 2022
Industry	Employment
Film and video editors	19,000
Camera operators, television, video, and film	9,640
Audio and video technicians	9,470
Broadcast technicians	8,640
Sound engineering technicians	6,550
Lighting technicians	3,110
Set and exhibit designers	3,080
Costume attendants	2,070
Makeup artists, theatrical and performance	1,670
Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists	1,080

Employment in selected occupational groups in motion picture and sound recording industries, May 2022
Industry	Employment
Office and administrative support	32,290
Food preparation and serving related	28,880
Sales and related	15,190
Transportation and material moving	5,690
Installation, maintenance, and repair	3,560
Construction and extraction	3,490

Employment in motion picture and sound recording industries, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, California Metropolitan Division, April-August, 2021-23
Month	2021	2022	2023
April	119,900	147,300	141,100
May	127,000	151,200	135,800
June	119,800	146,400	133,400
July	115,600	145,100	128,900
August	144,600	155,400	123,800^[p]
^[p] Preliminary

Number of individuals with a wage and salary job, not at work due to labor dispute, selected industries, January–August 2023
Month	All industries	Information industries	Motion pictures and sound recording industries
April	1,000	-	-
May	30,000	10,000	4,000
June	13,000	9,000	4,000
July	31,000	13,000	7,000
August	36,000	13,000	13,000

Number of work stoppages in effect each year, 1981–2022
Year	Work stoppages in effect
1981	151
1982	98
1983	83
1984	68
1985	61
1986	72
1987	51
1988	43
1989	52
1990	50
1991	45
1992	41
1993	36
1994	45
1995	34
1996	38
1997	34
1998	34
1999	21
2000	40
2001	30
2002	20
2003	15
2004	18
2005	24
2006	23
2007	23
2008	16
2009	5
2010	11
2011	19
2012	21
2013	15
2014	11
2015	13
2016	16
2017	7
2018	21
2019	27
2020	10
2021	17
2022	26