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Projections of the U.S. economy, 2016–26: Slow growth continues

Kevin Dubina | November 2017

Between 2016 and 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Lab­­or Statistics (BLS) projects the economy to grow by 2.0 percent each year, on average. That’s faster than the 1.4-percent annual growth in the previous 10 years, a period heavily affected by the 2007–09 recession. However, as the chart shows, 2016–26 growth is not expected to reach the levels achieved in prior decades.

Economic growth is measured as the increased value of goods and services produced in the United States—real gross domestic product, or real GDP. The U.S economy, which includes the workers who produce goods and services, has changed over the past two decades.

The number of workers over age 55 has increased dramatically, an upward trend that is expected to continue. But the pace of labor force growth is projected to slow, which in turn is expected to limit GDP growth in the coming decade. This is one of the main reasons the projected 2016–26 growth rate of 2.0 percent remains lackluster, compared with growth rates of 3.0 percent or more in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

For 2026, the projected value of real GDP is $20.3 trillion in constant 2009 dollars. BLS uses the 2026 GDP estimate along with other assumptions about the economy to project industry output, which then is used to project employment in industries and occupations.

Learn more about the projections by visiting the BLS Employment Projections program.