Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press
under lock-up conditions with the explicit understanding that
the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.
Statement of
William J. Wiatrowski
Acting Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Friday, February 1, 2019
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 304,000 in
January, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.0 percent. Job
gains occurred in a number of industries, including leisure and
hospitality, construction, health care, and transportation and
warehousing.
Incorporating revisions for November and December, which
decreased nonfarm payroll employment by 70,000, on net, monthly
job gains averaged 241,000 over the past 3 months.
Our evaluation of the establishment survey data indicates
that there were no discernible impacts of the partial federal
government shutdown on the January estimates of employment,
hours, or earnings. Federal government employment was
essentially unchanged over the month (+1,000). Federal employees
on furlough during the shutdown were considered employed in the
establishment survey because they worked or received pay (or
will receive pay) for the survey's reference period, which is
the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. It is likely
that some private industries were affected by the shutdown;
however, we are not able to quantify the impacts.
Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 74,000
in January. Within the industry, food services and drinking
places (+37,000) and amusements, gambling, and recreation
(+32,000) added jobs. Over the year, leisure and hospitality
added 410,000 jobs.
Construction employment rose by 52,000 in January, with
gains in specialty trade contractors (+34,000), heavy and civil
engineering (+10,000), and residential building (+9,000). Over
the year, construction employment increased by 338,000.
Health care added 42,000 jobs in January. Within the
industry, employment rose in ambulatory care services (+22,000)
and hospitals (+19,000). Over the past 12 months, health care
employment increased by 368,000.
In January, employment in transportation and warehousing
rose by 27,000, with gains in warehousing and storage (+15,000)
and among couriers and messengers (+7,000). Over the year,
transportation and warehousing added 219,000 jobs.
Retail trade employment edged up by 21,000 in January.
Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores added jobs over
the month (+17,000), while general merchandise stores lost jobs
(-12,000). Overall, employment in retail trade has shown little
net change over the year (+26,000).
Mining employment rose by 7,000 in January and by 64,000
over the year, mostly in support activities for mining.
Employment continued to trend up in professional and
business services in January (+30,000). Over the past 12 months,
this industry has added 546,000 jobs.
Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in January
(+13,000). Durable goods added 20,000 jobs over the month, while
employment in nondurable goods changed little (-7,000). Over the
year, manufacturing employment has increased by 261,000, with
more than four-fifths of the gain in durable goods industries.
Employment in other major industries--including wholesale
trade, information, and financial activities--showed little
change over the month.
Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm
payrolls rose by 3 cents in January to $27.56, following a 10-
cent increase in December. Over the past 12 months, average
hourly earnings have grown by 3.2 percent. From December 2017 to
December 2018, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
(CPI-U) increased by 1.9 percent (on a seasonally adjusted
basis).
Turning to measures from the household survey, both the
unemployment rate, at 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed
people, at 6.5 million, edged up in January. The impact of the
partial federal government shutdown contributed to the uptick in
these measures.
The number of unemployed people on temporary layoff rose by
175,000 in January; much of the increase occurred among federal
government workers (discussed in more detail below).
Among the unemployed, the number who had been searching for
work for 27 weeks or longer, at 1.3 million, was little changed
in January. These long-term unemployed accounted for 19.3
percent of the total unemployed.
The labor force participation rate, at 63.2 percent,
changed little in January. The employment-population ratio, at
60.7 percent, also changed little. Over the year, both measures
were up by 0.5 percentage point.
In January, 5.1 million people were working part time for
economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time
workers), up by about one-half million from the prior month.
Nearly all of this increase was in the private sector and may
reflect the partial federal government shutdown.
Among those neither working nor looking for work in
January, 1.6 million were considered marginally attached to the
labor force, little different from a year earlier. Discouraged
workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed no
jobs were available for them, numbered 426,000 in January, also
little different from a year earlier. (People who are marginally
attached to the labor force had not looked for work in the 4
weeks prior to the survey but wanted a job, were available to
work, and had looked for a job within the last 12 months.)
As noted above, unlike the establishment survey, some of
the estimates from the household survey show the effects of the
partial federal government shutdown. This is due to differences
in the concepts and definitions used in the two surveys. In the
household survey, workers who indicate that they were not
working during the entire reference week due to a shutdown-
related furlough and expect to be recalled to their jobs should
be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, whether or not
they are paid for the time they were off work. In January 2019,
many furloughed federal employees were so classified,
contributing to a rise in the overall number of people
unemployed on temporary layoff. This mirrored the effect of the
October 2013 partial federal government shutdown on the estimate
of unemployed on temporary layoff.
However, as with the October 2013 shutdown, some federal
workers who were not at work during the entire January reference
week were not classified as unemployed on temporary layoff.
Instead, they were classified as employed but absent from work.
Our review of the underlying data indicates that most of these
workers should have been classified as unemployed on temporary
layoff. This type of misclassification is an example of
nonsampling error and can occur when respondents misunderstand
questions or interviewers record answers incorrectly. As in
2013, no ad hoc actions were taken to reassign survey responses;
the data were accepted as recorded.
If the federal workers who were recorded as employed but
absent from work had been classified as unemployed on temporary
layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been slightly
higher than reported. Additional information is available online
at www.bls.gov/bls/shutdown_2019_empsit_qa.pdf.
In January, there were routine adjustments to the data from
our two surveys, following our usual annual practice. The
establishment survey data released today reflect the
incorporation of annual benchmark revisions. Each year, we re-
anchor our sample-based survey estimates to full universe counts
of employment, primarily derived from the Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages, which counts jobs covered by the
unemployment insurance tax system. The effect of these revisions
on the underlying trend in nonfarm payroll employment was minor.
(Additional information about the benchmark revision and its
impact is contained in our news release and on our website at
www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm.)
Household survey data for January reflect updated
population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Again this
year, the impact of the new population controls on the
unemployment rate and other ratios was negligible. (Further
information can be found in our news release and on our website
at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps-pop-control-adjustments.pdf.)
In summary, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 304,000
in January, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.0 percent.
