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State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, & Earnings
Bureau of Labor Statistics > Current Employment Statistics (State and Metro Area) > About > Notices

Modifications to the Current Employment Statistics net birth-death model with the October 2021 news release

For the period March 2020 to September 2021, the establishment survey made two modifications to the birth-death model to better reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on its employment estimates. These changes included using a portion of business closings (deaths) and openings (births) reported by the establishment survey respondents in the estimation process and adding a regression variable to the model for forecasting net business births and deaths. Effective with data for October 2021, BLS reverted back to the methodology used prior to the onset of the pandemic. For more information about changes to the birth-death model during the COVID-19 pandemic, see the establishment survey's birth-death frequently asked questions.