For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Thursday, August 27, 2026 USDL-26-1422
Technical information: (202) 691-5700 * ep-info@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/emp
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS - 2025-2035
The U.S. economy is projected to add 5.9 million jobs from 2025 to 2035, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Total employment is projected to increase from 170.3 million
to 176.2 million and grow 3.5 percent, which is slower than the 10.9 percent growth recorded
over the 2015-25 decade.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
| |
| New Artificial Intelligence Exposure Categories |
| |
| Alongside the 2025-35 projections, BLS is introducing a new data product that provides |
| information about how occupations compare to one another based on their theoretical and |
| observed exposure to artificial intelligence (AI). More information about the AI exposure |
| categories can be found on release day at |
| www.bls.gov/emp/publications/ai-exposure-categories.htm. |
|_____________________________________________________________________________________________|
Major Industry Sector Employment
Utilities is projected to have the fastest job growth (+9.8 percent) of all major industry
sectors over the 2025-35 decade. However, this fast growth is projected to account for an
increase of only 58,800 new jobs because of the sector's relatively small employment size.
Nearly all the job growth is expected from electric power generation, transmission, and
distribution due to increasing demand for electricity, including artificial intelligence
(AI) power demands.
The private healthcare and social assistance (+9.5 percent) major industry sector is projected
to add the most jobs of any sector, over 2.2 million over the projections period, and is
projected to be the second fastest growing major industry sector. This strong growth is
expected to account for about 37.0 percent of all new jobs projected to be added through 2035.
Strong employment growth is expected to stem from both the aging population and the increasing
prevalence of chronic health conditions, such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes.
Demand for AI-based systems, research and development, and associated consulting services is
expected to drive the need for workers in professional, scientific, and technical services.
This major industry sector is projected to be the third fastest growing sector (+8.6 percent)
over the projections period. This fast growth is projected to result in 926,700 new jobs, the
second largest job growth of any sector.
Employment in federal government (-3.4 percent) and retail trade (-0.2 percent) is projected
to decline from 2025 to 2035. Retail trade is projected to lose about 27,500 jobs over the
projections period, as e-commerce is expected to continue limiting employment in retail
outlets. However, the growing volume of online purchases and therefore increasing volume of
shipments and deliveries are expected to support employment growth in transportation and
warehousing (+3.1 percent).
Fastest Growing Employment in Detailed Industries
The overall demand for electricity is expected to increase over the projections period due in
large part to AI adoption and demand for related infrastructure, such as data centers.
Consequently, projected employment growth in 4 out of the 10 fastest growing industries is
expected to be driven, in large part, by demand for electricity. The solar, wind, and
geothermal electric power generation industries are projected to be the fastest growing
detailed industries. However, because of their relatively small employment size, these
industries, when combined with the other electric power generation industry, are projected to
add only about 35,800 jobs over the projections period.
Accelerated AI adoption is also expected to support employment growth in the computing
infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services industry. As a
result, this industry is projected to grow 25.1 percent and add 120,400 new jobs over the
projections period.
Other electrical equipment and component manufacturing, which includes production of batteries
used for energy storage and in electric vehicles, is projected to grow 25.9 percent from 2025
to 2035. Rising demand for fiber optic cables, used for the transmission of data across AI
infrastructure and in telecommunications infrastructure, is also expected to contribute to
strong employment growth in this industry.
Four of the 10 industries where employment is projected to grow the fastest over the 2025-35
projections period are related to the private healthcare and social assistance major industry
sector. Among these, services for the elderly and persons with disabilities is projected to
add 625,400 new jobs from 2025 to 2035, the most of any detailed industry. Increased demand
for home-based care is expected to contribute to this growth.
Occupational Employment
In line with the fast job growth expected in the private healthcare and social assistance
major industry sector, three related occupational groups are projected to experience strong
employment growth over the 2025-35 decade. These are the healthcare support, healthcare
practitioners and technical, and community and social service occupational groups, all of
which are projected to be among the five fastest growing groups in the economy from 2025 to
2035.
Of all 22 major occupational groups, the healthcare support and healthcare practitioners and
technical groups are projected to grow the fastest, with employment growing 13.3 percent and
8.0 percent, respectively, over the projections decade. These two healthcare groups combined
are expected to account for almost one-third of all new jobs created through 2035.
Because the likelihood of experiencing health complications increases with age, the aging
population is expected to boost demand for a wide variety of healthcare and social services,
including home health and personal care services. Moreover, given the high prevalence of
chronic diseases and behavioral health disorders in the general population, the demand to
diagnose, treat, and manage these conditions is expected to grow through 2035.
As a result, strong job growth is expected in the occupations that provide or help provide
these services, including physical therapist assistants, occupational therapy assistants,
psychiatric technicians, and ophthalmic medical technicians, all of which rank among the 10
fastest growing detailed occupations from 2025 to 2035. This demand is also expected to result
in an increased need for community and social service occupations, which are projected to be
the fourth fastest occupational group (+7.4 percent). Notably, nurse practitioners is
projected to experience the fastest employment growth of all detailed occupations
(+41.0 percent), reflecting the central role this occupation plays in providing care under
collaborative, team-based models of care.
Life, physical, and social science occupations are projected to experience the third-fastest
job growth of any major occupational group (+7.5 percent), growing more than twice as fast as
the all-occupation average (+3.5 percent). The growing demand for scientific research and
development in a wide range of fields, most notably in biotechnology, manufacturing, and AI,
is the main factor expected to drive strong employment demand in this group.
Computer and mathematical occupations are projected to be the fifth fastest growing major
occupational group (+7.3 percent). Fast job growth in these occupations is expected to largely
stem from the continued proliferation of digital tools and AI solutions across the economy.
Ranking among the top 10 fastest growing detailed occupations are data scientists (+34.6
percent) and computer and information research scientists (+21.8 percent), which will be in
demand to develop, improve, and leverage these technologies to enhance business operations and
aid decision making.
Electricity demand is expected to grow significantly over the projections decade, leading to
strong employment growth for solar photovoltaic installers (+36.5 percent) and wind turbine
service technicians (+29.5 percent), both of which rank among the five fastest growing
occupations from 2025 to 2035. Despite their fast projected growth, the two occupations
combined are projected to add fewer than 15,000 new jobs by 2035. As solar and wind power
generation continues to expand, strong demand is expected for solar photovoltaic installers
and wind turbine service technicians to install solar panels and to repair and maintain wind
turbines, respectively.
Although the growing adoption of AI is expected to support demand for some occupations,
associated productivity gains may dampen employment demand for others. The use of generative
AI software, which can be leveraged to automate repetitive tasks and speed up certain
processes, may limit demand for some jobs in the arts, design, entertainment, sports, and
media occupational group. Similarly, the continued integration of automation tools, including
those powered by AI, into workflows is likely to reduce demand for several office and
administrative support occupations. This occupational group is projected to decline at the
fastest pace (-4.0 percent) and to shed 752,100 jobs over the 2025-35 decade, the most of any
major occupational group. Additionally, further growth of e-commerce and incorporation of AI
tools into the sales process are expected to continue contributing to job loss in the sales
and related occupational group (-1.4 percent). Lastly, the continued deployment of automated
machinery and processes in manufacturing operations is expected to reduce labor needs across
production occupations (-0.4 percent).
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
| |
| Interpreting the Employment Projections |
| |
| The Employment Projections (EP) program estimates specific values for projected employment |
| levels and employment changes. However, this precision in the data does not account for |
| the inherent uncertainty of predicting long-term changes in the labor market. Focusing on |
| the direction and relative size of projected changes, rather than on the precise value |
| estimates, may yield similar insights into employment trends and themes across occupations |
| and industries. |
| |
| The EP program also conducts research on factors that are expected to affect employment, |
| which may not be reflected in historical data, such as emerging technologies and new |
| legislation. Adjustments based on this research are generally applied conservatively, such |
| as when there is convincing evidence for a long-term structural change. |
|_____________________________________________________________________________________________|
More Information
--Detailed information on the 2025-35 industry and occupational employment projections will
appear in a separate Monthly Labor Review article, to be published later in 2026.
--The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) includes information on about 600 detailed
occupations in over 300 occupational profiles, covering about 4 out of 5 jobs in the
economy. Each occupational profile features the 2025-35 projections, along with assessments
of the job outlook, work activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more.
--The OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh.
--Field of degree pages are available online at www.bls.gov/ooh/field-of-degree/home.htm.
--Information about the importance of various skills by occupation can be found at
www.bls.gov/emp/data/skills-data.htm.
--Descriptions of the classification systems and projections methods used can be found on the
Employments Projections Methods Overview page at www.bls.gov/emp/methods-overview.htm.
--Tables with detailed, comprehensive projections data are available online at
www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm.
--Definitions for terms used in this news release are available in the BLS Glossary at
www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm.
If you are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access
telecommunications relay services.
Technical Note
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes projections for the labor force, the
macroeconomy, industry output and employment, and occupational employment. More information
is available online:
--Labor force: www.bls.gov/emp/data/labor-force.htm
--Aggregate economy: www.bls.gov/emp/data/aggregate-economy.htm
--Industry output and employment: www.bls.gov/emp/data/industry-out-and-emp.htm
--Occupational employment: www.bls.gov/emp/data/occupational-data.htm
The projections data provide a potential scenario for changes in the economy over a decade.
The projections focus on long-term structural trends of the economy and do not try to
anticipate future business cycle activity. To meet this objective, specific assumptions are
made about the labor force, macroeconomy, industry output and employment, and occupational
employment. The projections are not intended to be a forecast of what the future will be but
instead are a description of what would be expected to happen under these specific assumptions
and circumstances. When these assumptions are not realized, actual values will differ from
projections.
Labor supply and demand assumptions
BLS projects the labor force (labor supply) as an input into the macroeconomic projections.
BLS also assumes that the economy will be at full employment in the projected year, with the
labor market at equilibrium. That is, employment in the projected year will be roughly
equivalent to the projected labor force minus a level of frictional unemployment. (The
relationship is not exact because labor force is a count of people, while employment is a
count of jobs, and individual people can hold more than one job.) BLS does not project an
overall labor shortage or surplus because, in the BLS projections data framework, labor supply
(the labor force) and labor demand (employment) are linked; a projected increase in labor
supply results in an increase in employment.
Technological progress assumptions
As with many variables, BLS assumes that labor productivity and technological progress will be
in line with the historical experience. That is, productivity will increase and technology
will progress, but because the BLS method involves analyzing historical relationships in the
data and projecting them forward, the future is assumed to behave comparably to the past. (For
previous sets of projections data, visit the Projections Archive page online at
www.bls.gov/emp/data/projections-archive.htm.) In a future state where technology advances
much more rapidly than it has historically, it is unlikely that historical relationships would
hold, and therefore BLS projection methods are unlikely to yield reasonable results.
Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have raised the prospect that the future
rate of technological progress could be higher than in the past. BLS projection methods could
reflect this in a faster rate of labor productivity growth. This would in turn result in a
higher level of gross domestic product (GDP) growth (maintaining the BLS full employment
assumption). If this higher rate of productivity growth is uniform across all industries,
there is no impact on BLS employment projections; output is higher, productivity is higher,
and employment is the same. However, a higher aggregate level of productivity growth could
also be reflected differentially in industry productivity. BLS methods could capture this, but
BLS has no data on which to base these differential productivity impacts. BLS therefore
chooses to present a scenario with technological progress in line with historical patterns,
which allows the projections to be grounded by historical data relationships rather than
introducing adjustments that would be highly speculative.
BLS does conduct research on factors that are expected to impact employment, particularly
those which may not be reflected in historical data, such as new technologies. However, BLS
generally applies adjustments based on this research conservatively, where there is convincing
evidence for a change. Developments in AI are proceeding rapidly, and the uncertainty about
potential impacts remains very high. Projections are always uncertain, and the exact impact of
developments, such as new technologies on the labor market, 10 years in the future is
impossible to predict with precision. As a result, BLS releases new projections annually to
incorporate new data, research, and analysis. For more details on how BLS assesses and
incorporates AI's potential labor market impacts on its employment projections, illustrated
via case studies from the 2023-33 projections cycle, see Christine Machovec, Michael J.
Rieley, and Emily Rolen, "Incorporating AI impacts in BLS employment projections: occupational
case studies," Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2025.
The historical record shows that technology impacts occupations, but that these changes tend
to be gradual, not sudden. Occupations involve complex combinations of tasks, and even when
technology advances rapidly, it can take time for employers and workers to figure out how to
incorporate new technology into business practices. New technologies may change the
composition or weighting of tasks performed by an occupation even if they do not impact
overall demand for an occupation. For more details on the historical record, see Michael J.
Handel, "Growth trends for selected occupations considered at risk from automation," Monthly
Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2022.
For more information, visit the Employment Projections Handbook of Methods page online at
www.bls.gov/opub/hom/emp/home.htm.
Frequently asked questions about the employment projections are online at
www.bls.gov/emp/frequently-asked-questions.htm.
Users and uses
The BLS projections are used by high school and college students, their teachers and parents,
jobseekers, career counselors, and guidance specialists to determine jobs in demand. The
projections also are used by state workforce agencies to prepare state and area projections
that, together with the national projections, are widely used by policymakers to make
decisions about education and training, funding allocations, and program offerings. These
projections of jobs in demand help improve the alignment between education and training and
the hiring needs of employers. In addition, other federal agencies, researchers, and academics
use the projections to understand trends in the economy and labor market.
Projections of industry and occupational employment at the state level are prepared by each
state, using input from the BLS national projections. State projections data are available on
the Projections Central page at https://projectionscentral.org.
United States Department of Labor
