For release 10:00 a.m. (EDT) Monday, March 11, 2019                                USDL-19-0398

Technical information:
 Employment:    (202) 691-6559  *  sminfo@bls.gov    *  www.bls.gov/sae
 Unemployment:  (202) 691-6392  *  lausinfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/lau
 
Media contact:  (202) 691-5902  *  PressOffice@bls.gov


                STATE EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT -- JANUARY 2019


Unemployment rates were lower in January in 3 states, higher in 3 states, and stable 
in 44 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 
today. Nine states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 1 state had an 
increase, and 40 states and the District had little or no change. The national 
unemployment rate edged up to 4.0 percent over the month and was little changed from 
January 2018.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 13 states in January 2019 and was essentially 
unchanged in 37 states and the District of Columbia. Over the year, 26 states added 
nonfarm payroll jobs and 24 states and the District were essentially unchanged.

Unemployment

Iowa and New Hampshire had the lowest unemployment rates in January, 2.4 percent each. 
The rate in Vermont (2.5 percent) set a new series low. (All state series begin in 1976.) 
Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.5 percent. In total, 19 states had unemployment 
rates lower than the U.S. figure of 4.0 percent, 8 states and the District of Columbia 
had higher rates, and 23 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that 
of the nation. (See tables A and 1.)

In January, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming had unemployment rate decreases (-0.1 
percentage point each). The three states with rate increases were Arizona (+0.2 percentage 
point) and Georgia and Minnesota (+0.1 point each). The remaining 44 states and the 
District of Columbia had jobless rates that were not notably different from those of a
month earlier, though some had changes that were at least as large numerically as the
significant changes.

   ____________________________________________________________________________
  |                                                                            |
  |              Changes to Employment and Unemployment Data                   |
  |                                                                            |
  | In accordance with standard practices, historical data have been revised   |
  | in the tables of this news release. For detailed information on changes to |
  | the data, see the box notes at the end of the news release.                |
  |____________________________________________________________________________|


Nine states had unemployment rate decreases from January 2018, the largest of which was in 
Connecticut (-0.8 percentage point). The only unemployment rate increase occurred in Colorado 
(+0.8 percentage point). (See table B.)

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 13 states in January 2019. The largest job gains 
occurred in North Carolina (+34,700), Illinois (+24,400), and Virginia (+23,700). In 
percentage terms, the largest increase occurred in West Virginia (+1.1 percent), followed 
by North Carolina (+0.8 percent), and Idaho, Maine, Oregon, and Virginia (+0.6 percent each). 
(See tables C and 3.)

Twenty-six states had over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment in January. The 
largest job gains occurred in Texas (+292,000), California (+246,400), and Florida (+209,500). 
The largest percentage gain occurred in Nevada (+3.9 percent), followed by Utah (+3.4 percent) 
and Arizona (+2.8 percent). (See table D.)

_____________
The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news release for January is scheduled to be 
released on Friday, March 15, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. (EDT). The State Employment and Unemployment 
news release for February is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 22, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. 
(EDT).


   _____________________________________________________________________________________
  |                                                                                     |
  |                       Partial Federal Government Shutdown                           |
  |                                                                                     |
  | Some federal government agencies were shut down or operating at reduced staffing    |
  | levels during a lapse in appropriations from December 22, 2018, through January 25, |
  | 2019. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was funded during the shutdown period    |
  | and was operating as usual. Data collection for the household and establishment     |
  | surveys occurred as scheduled. Additional information is available online at        |
  | www.bls.gov/bls/shutdown_2019_empsit_qa.pdf.                                        |
  |_____________________________________________________________________________________|


   _____________________________________________________________________________________
  |                                                                                     |
  |               Changes to Local Area Unemployment Statistics Data                    |
  |                                                                                     |
  | On Thursday, February 28, 2019, the civilian labor force and unemployment data      |
  | for the states, the District of Columbia, and the modeled substate areas presented  |
  | in tables 1 and 2 of this news release were revised to incorporate updated inputs,  |
  | new population controls, reestimation of models, and adjustment to new census       |
  | division and national control totals. Data in table 1 were re-seasonally adjusted   |
  | as well. Both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data were subject to  |
  | revision back to January 2014.                                                      |
  |_____________________________________________________________________________________|


   _____________________________________________________________________________________
  |                                                                                     |
  |              Changes to Current Employment Statistics (CES) Data                    |
  |                                                                                     |
  | Effective with this news release, all nonfarm payroll employment estimates for      |
  | states and metropolitan areas (tables 3 and 4) have been revised as a result of     |
  | annual benchmark processing to reflect 2018 employment counts primarily from the    |
  | BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), as well as updating of         |
  | seasonal adjustment factors. Not seasonally adjusted data beginning with April 2017 |
  | and seasonlally adjusted data beginning with January 2014 were subject to revision. |
  | Some seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted series may have been revised   |
  | back to 1990. Information on annual benchmark processing is available at            |
  | www.bls.gov/web/laus/benchmark.pdf.                                                 |
  |_____________________________________________________________________________________|


Table A. States with unemployment rates significantly different
from that of the U.S., January 2019, seasonally adjusted
--------------------------------------------------------------
                State                |          Rate(p)
--------------------------------------------------------------
United States (1) ...................|           4.0
                                     |
Alaska ..............................|           6.5
Arizona .............................|           5.1
District of Columbia ................|           5.4
Florida .............................|           3.4
Hawaii ..............................|           2.7
Idaho ...............................|           2.8
Iowa ................................|           2.4
Kansas ..............................|           3.4
Louisiana ...........................|           4.9
Massachusetts .......................|           3.1
                                     |
Minnesota ...........................|           3.0
Mississippi .........................|           4.7
Missouri ............................|           3.2
Nebraska ............................|           2.8
New Hampshire .......................|           2.4
New Mexico ..........................|           5.1
North Dakota ........................|           2.5
Ohio ................................|           4.7
Oklahoma ............................|           3.2
South Carolina ......................|           3.2
                                     |
South Dakota ........................|           2.9
Tennessee ...........................|           3.3
Utah ................................|           3.1
Vermont .............................|           2.5
Virginia ............................|           2.8
Washington ..........................|           4.5
West Virginia .......................|           5.2
Wisconsin ...........................|           3.0
--------------------------------------------------------------
   (1) Data are not preliminary.
   (p) = preliminary.


Table B. States with statistically significant unemployment rate changes
from January 2018 to January 2019, seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |          Rate         |
                                |-----------|-----------|  Over-the-year
             State              |  January  |  January  |    change(p)
                                |    2018   |  2019(p)  |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
California .....................|     4.4   |     4.2   |      -0.2
Colorado .......................|     2.9   |     3.7   |        .8
Connecticut ....................|     4.6   |     3.8   |       -.8
Delaware .......................|     4.1   |     3.5   |       -.6
Florida ........................|     3.9   |     3.4   |       -.5
Maryland .......................|     4.2   |     3.7   |       -.5
New York .......................|     4.5   |     3.9   |       -.6
Oklahoma .......................|     3.9   |     3.2   |       -.7
South Carolina .................|     3.9   |     3.2   |       -.7
Virginia .......................|     3.3   |     2.8   |       -.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
   (p) = preliminary.


Table C. States with statistically significant employment changes from
December 2018 to January 2019, seasonally adjusted
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              |             |             | Over-the-month change(p)
           State              |   December  |    January  |---------------------------
                              |     2018    |    2019(p)  |    Level    |   Percent
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Delaware .....................|     464,200 |     466,700 |       2,500 |      0.5
Idaho ........................|     742,300 |     746,800 |       4,500 |       .6
Illinois .....................|   6,148,300 |   6,172,700 |      24,400 |       .4
Maine ........................|     627,900 |     631,900 |       4,000 |       .6
Massachusetts ................|   3,649,200 |   3,660,600 |      11,400 |       .3
New Jersey ...................|   4,179,100 |   4,196,900 |      17,800 |       .4
North Carolina ...............|   4,499,700 |   4,534,400 |      34,700 |       .8
Ohio .........................|   5,583,300 |   5,603,600 |      20,300 |       .4
Oregon .......................|   1,920,900 |   1,931,900 |      11,000 |       .6
South Dakota .................|     445,600 |     447,900 |       2,300 |       .5
                              |             |             |             |       
Virginia .....................|   4,008,600 |   4,032,300 |      23,700 |       .6
Washington ...................|   3,444,200 |   3,456,500 |      12,300 |       .4
West Virginia ................|     730,400 |     738,200 |       7,800 |      1.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   (p) = preliminary.


Table D. States with statistically significant employment changes from
January 2018 to January 2019, seasonally adjusted
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              |             |             | Over-the-year change(p)
           State              |   January   |    January  |---------------------------
                              |     2018    |    2019(p)  |    Level    |    Percent
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alabama ......................|   2,030,300 |   2,057,900 |      27,600 |      1.4
Arizona ......................|   2,820,000 |   2,898,700 |      78,700 |      2.8
California ...................|  17,058,800 |  17,305,200 |     246,400 |      1.4
Colorado .....................|   2,700,000 |   2,749,300 |      49,300 |      1.8
Delaware .....................|     459,300 |     466,700 |       7,400 |      1.6
Florida ......................|   8,690,800 |   8,900,300 |     209,500 |      2.4
Georgia ......................|   4,495,900 |   4,589,800 |      93,900 |      2.1
Idaho ........................|     729,500 |     746,800 |      17,300 |      2.4
Illinois .....................|   6,094,700 |   6,172,700 |      78,000 |      1.3
Indiana ......................|   3,133,000 |   3,168,400 |      35,400 |      1.1
                              |             |             |             |       
Kentucky .....................|   1,924,200 |   1,946,900 |      22,700 |      1.2
Michigan .....................|   4,395,000 |   4,442,000 |      47,000 |      1.1
Nevada .......................|   1,363,200 |   1,416,500 |      53,300 |      3.9
New Jersey ...................|   4,138,900 |   4,196,900 |      58,000 |      1.4
New York .....................|   9,617,200 |   9,724,400 |     107,200 |      1.1
North Carolina ...............|   4,460,600 |   4,534,400 |      73,800 |      1.7
Ohio .........................|   5,548,100 |   5,603,600 |      55,500 |      1.0
Oregon .......................|   1,903,700 |   1,931,900 |      28,200 |      1.5
South Carolina ...............|   2,139,600 |   2,173,900 |      34,300 |      1.6
South Dakota .................|     437,000 |     447,900 |      10,900 |      2.5
                              |             |             |             |       
Tennessee ....................|   3,034,400 |   3,095,600 |      61,200 |      2.0
Texas ........................|  12,357,300 |  12,649,300 |     292,000 |      2.4
Utah .........................|   1,495,500 |   1,546,400 |      50,900 |      3.4
Virginia .....................|   3,988,200 |   4,032,300 |      44,100 |      1.1
Washington ...................|   3,372,600 |   3,456,500 |      83,900 |      2.5
West Virginia ................|     718,700 |     738,200 |      19,500 |      2.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   (p) = preliminary.

Technical Note

  
   This news release presents civilian labor force and unemployment data for states
   and selected substate areas from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
   program (tables 1 and 2). Also presented are nonfarm payroll employment estimates
   by state and industry supersector from the Current Employment Statistics (CES)
   program (tables 3 and 4). The LAUS and CES programs are both federal-state cooperative
   endeavors.

Civilian labor force and unemployment--from the LAUS program

   Definitions. The civilian labor force and unemployment data are based on the same
   concepts and definitions as those used for the official national estimates obtained
   from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a sample survey of households that is
   conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by the U.S. Census Bureau.
   The LAUS program measures employed people and unemployed people on a place-of-
   residence basis. The universe for each is the civilian noninstitutional population
   16 years of age and older. Employed people are those who did any work at all for
   pay or profit in the reference week (typically the week including the 12th of the
   month) or worked 15 hours or more without pay in a family business or farm, plus
   those not working who had a job from which they were temporarily absent, whether
   or not paid, for such reasons as bad weather, labor-management dispute, illness,
   or vacation. 
     
   Unemployed people are those who were not employed during the reference week
   (based on the definition above), had actively looked for a job sometime in the
   4-week period ending with the reference week, and were currently available for
   work; people on layoff expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted 
   as unemployed. The civilian labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed people.
   The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor
   force.

   Method of estimation. Estimates for 48 states, the District of Columbia, the Los
   Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale metropolitan division, New York City, and the balances
   of California and New York State are produced using time-series models. This method,
   which underwent substantial enhancement at the beginning of 2015, utilizes data from
   several sources, including the CPS, the CES, and state unemployment insurance (UI) 
   programs. Estimates for the state of California are derived by summing the estimates
   for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale metropolitan division and the balance of
   California. Similarly, estimates for New York State are derived by summing the estimates
   for New York City and the balance of New York State. Estimates for the five additional
   substate areas contained in this release (the Cleveland-Elyria and Detroit-Warren-
   Dearborn metropolitan areas and the Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, Miami-
   Miami Beach-Kendall, and Seattle-Bellevue-Everett metropolitan divisions) and their
   respective balances of state are produced using a similar model-based approach.
    
   Each month, estimates for the nine census divisions first are modeled using inputs
   from the CPS only and controlled to the national totals. State estimates then are
   controlled to their respective census division totals. Substate and balance-of-state
   estimates for the five areas noted above also are controlled to their respective state
   totals. This tiered process of controlling model-based estimates to the U.S. totals is 
   called real-time benchmarking. Estimates for Puerto Rico are derived from a monthly
   household survey similar to the CPS. A more detailed description of the estimation
   procedures is available from BLS upon request.
   
   Annual revisions. Civilian labor force and unemployment data for prior years reflect
   adjustments made after the end of each year. The adjusted estimates reflect updated
   population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, any revisions in the other data sources,
   and model re-estimation. In most years, historical data for the most recent five years
   are revised near the beginning of each calendar year, prior to the release of January
   estimates. With the introduction of a new generation of times-series models in early
   2015, historical data were re-estimated back to the series beginnings in 1976, 1990,
   or 1994.

   Seasonal adjustment. The LAUS models decompose the estimates of employed and unemployed
   people into trend, seasonal, and irregular components. With changes implemented in early
   2018, the benchmarked signals of employed and unemployed people first are adjusted using
   an X-11 type of seasonal adjustment filter. The adjusted data then are smoothed using a
   Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) filter. The smoothed-seasonally adjusted
   estimates of employed and unemployed people are summed to derive the civilian labor force,
   and the unemployment rate then is calculated as the unemployed percent of the civilian
   labor force. The resulting smoothed-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate estimates are

   analyzed in this news release and published on the BLS website. 

   During estimation for the current year, the smoothed-seasonally adjusted estimates
   for a given month are created using an asymmetric filter that incorporates information
   from previous observations only. For annual revisions, historical data are smoothed
   using a two-sided filter.
   
   Area definitions. The substate area data published in this release reflect the
   delineations that were issued by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget on April 10,
   2018. A detailed list of the geographic definitions is available online at
   www.bls.gov/lau/lausmsa.htm. 

Employment—from the CES program

   Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive
   pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Persons are
   counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing
   on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on
   the basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2017 version of the North 
   American Industry Classification System. 

   Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several
   estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a "weighted link
   relative" estimation technique in which a ratio of current month weighted employment
   to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of
   establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current 
   month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous month's employment
   estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where
   the sample size meets certain statistical criteria. 

   For some employment series, the sample of establishments is very small or highly
   variable. In these cases, a model-based approach is used in estimation. These models
   use the direct sample estimates (described above), combined with forecasts of
   historical (benchmarked) data to decrease volatility in estimation. Two different 
   models (Fay-Herriot Model and Small Domain Model) are used depending on the industry
   level being estimated.For more detailed information about each model, refer to
   the BLS Handbook of Methods.
    
   Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count
   of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports that are submitted
   by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The
   benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new
   benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of employment
   for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the
   level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month
   changes in the level for the subsequent months. Information on recent benchmark
   revisions is available online at www.bls.gov/web/laus/benchmark.pdf.

   Seasonal adjustment. Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted at the
   statewide expanded supersector level. In some cases, the seasonally adjusted
   payroll employment total is computed by aggregating the independently adjusted
   supersector series. In other cases, the seasonally adjusted payroll employment
   total is independently adjusted. Revisions to historical data for the most recent
   five years are made once a year, coincident with annual benchmark adjustments.
     
   Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted concurrently, using all available 
   estimates including those for the current month, to develop sample-based seasonal
   factors. Concurrent sample-based factors are created every month for the current 
   month's preliminary estimate as well as the previous month's final estimate in order
   to incorporate real-time estimates.

   Caution on aggregating state data. State estimation procedures are designed to
   produce accurate data for each individual state. BLS independently develops a
   national employment series; state estimates are not forced to sum to national
   totals. Because each state series is subject to larger sampling and nonsampling
   errors than the national series, summing them cumulates individual state-level 
   errors and can cause significant distortions at an aggregate level. Due to
   these statistical limitations, BLS does not compile a "sum-of-states" employment
   series, and cautions users that such a series is subject to a relatively large
   and volatile error structure.

Reliability of the estimates

   The estimates presented in this release are based on sample surveys, administrative
   data, and modeling and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors.
   Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability—that is, variation that occurs
   by chance because a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey
   data also are subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced
   into the data collection and processing operations. Estimates not directly derived
   from sample surveys are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific
   estimation processes used.

   Use of error measures. Changes in state unemployment rates and state nonfarm payroll
   employment are cited in the analysis of this release only if they have been determined
   to be statistically significant at the 90-percent confidence level. Furthermore, state
   unemployment rates for the current month generally are cited only if they have been
   determined to be significantly different from the U.S. rate at the 90-percent confidence
   level. The underlying model-based standard error measures for unemployment rates
   and over-the-month and over-the-year changes in rates are available at
   www.bls.gov/lau/lastderr.htm. The underlying standard error measures for over-the-month
   and over-the-year changes in state payroll employment data at the total nonfarm and
   supersector levels are available at www.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Measures of 
   nonsampling error are not available.

Additional information

   Estimates of civilian labor force and unemployment from the LAUS program, as well
   as nonfarm payroll employment from the CES program, for metropolitan areas and
   metropolitan divisions are available in the news release Metropolitan Area Employment
   and Unemployment. Estimates of civilian labor force, employed people, unemployed
   people, and unemployment rates for approximately 7,000 subnational areas are
   available online at www.bls.gov/lau/. Employment data from the CES program for
   states and metropolitan areas are available online at www.bls.gov/sae/. Information
   in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request.
   Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Service: (800) 877-8339.