For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Wednesday, October 28, 2020			       USDL-20-1997

Technical information:
 Employment:      sminfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/sae
 Unemployment:	  lausinfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/lau
	
Media contact:	  (202) 691-5902  *  PressOffice@bls.gov


          METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT -- SEPTEMBER 2020


Unemployment rates were higher in September than a year earlier in 388 of the 389
metropolitan areas and lower in 1 area, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. A total of 73 areas had jobless rates of less than 5.0 percent and 31 areas
had rates of at least 10.0 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased over the
year in 251 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 138 areas. The
national unemployment rate in September was 7.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted,
up from 3.3 percent a year earlier.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly programs. The civilian labor
force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and definitions as those
used for the national household survey estimates. These data pertain to individuals
by where they reside. The employment data are from an establishment survey that
measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. These data pertain
to jobs on payrolls defined by where the establishments are located. For more
information about the concepts and statistical methodologies used by these two
programs, see the Technical Note.

Metropolitan Area Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI, had the highest unemployment rate in September, 23.6
percent, followed by El Centro, CA, 21.5 percent. Ames, IA, and Jefferson City, MO,
had the lowest unemployment rates, 2.8 percent each. A total of 279 areas had
September jobless rates below the U.S. rate of 7.7 percent, 105 areas had rates
above it, and 5 areas had rates equal to that of the nation. (See table 1.)

The largest over-the-year unemployment rate increase in September occurred in Kahului-
Wailuku-Lahaina, HI (+20.9 percentage points). Rates rose over the year by at least
10.0 percentage points in an additional three areas. The only jobless rate decrease
from a year earlier occurred in Yuma, AZ (-2.2 percentage points).

Of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more,
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, had the highest unemployment rate in September,
14.8 percent, followed by Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA, 13.6 percent. Kansas
City, MO-KS, and Oklahoma City, OK, had the lowest jobless rates among the large
areas, 4.9 percent each. All 51 large areas had over-the-year unemployment rate
increases, the largest of which were in Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (+10.9
percentage points), and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA (+9.7 points). The smallest
rate increase from a year earlier occurred in Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
(+1.9 percentage points).

Metropolitan Division Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Eleven of the most populous metropolitan areas are made up of 38 metropolitan divisions,
which are essentially separately identifiable employment centers. In September, Los
Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA, had the highest unemployment rate among the divisions,
15.1 percent. Dutchess County-Putnam County, NY, had the lowest division rate, 5.7
percent. (See table 2.)

In September, all 38 metropolitan divisions had over-the-year unemployment rate
increases, the largest of which were in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (+10.8
percentage points), and Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (+10.7 points). The smallest
rate increase occurred in Dutchess County-Putnam County, NY (+2.2 percentage points).

Metropolitan Area Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In September, 251 metropolitan areas had over-the-year decreases in nonfarm payroll
employment and 138 were essentially unchanged. The largest over-the-year employment
decreases occurred in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (-1,075,800), Los Angeles-
Long Beach-Anaheim, CA (-598,900), and Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI (-345,500).
The largest over-the-year percentage losses in employment occurred in Kahului-Wailuku-
Lahaina, HI (-29.6 percent), Lake Charles, LA (-19.6 percent), and Ocean City, NJ 
(-18.3 percent). (See table 3.)

Over the year, nonfarm employment declined in all of the 51 metropolitan areas with
a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more. The largest over-the-year percentage
decreases in employment in these large metropolitan areas occurred in Las Vegas-
Henderson-Paradise, NV (-12.3 percent), New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (-10.8
percent), and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA (-10.6 percent).

Metropolitan Division Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In September, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in all of the 38 metropolitan
divisions over the year. The largest over-the-year decrease in employment among the
metropolitan divisions occurred in New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (-834,500),
followed by Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (-437,100), and Chicago-Naperville-
Arlington Heights, IL (-274,200). (See table 4.)

The largest over-the-year percentage decreases in employment occurred in Haverhill-
Newburyport-Amesbury Town, MA-NH (-12.2 percent), New York-Jersey City-White Plains,
NY-NJ (-11.5 percent), and Lowell-Billerica-Chelmsford, MA-NH (-11.4 percent). 

_____________
The State Employment and Unemployment news release for October is scheduled to be
released on Friday, November 20, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. (ET). The Metropolitan Area
Employment and Unemployment news release for October is scheduled to be released
on Thursday, December 3, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).


 _____________________________________________________________________________________
|										      |
|             Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on September 2020		      |
|                     Establishment and Household Survey Data			      |
|										      |
| BLS has continued to review all estimation and methodological procedures for the    |
| establishment survey, which included the review of data, estimation processes,      |
| the application of the birth-death model, and seasonal adjustment. Business 	      |
| births and deaths cannot be adequately captured by the establishment survey as      |
| they occur. Therefore, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program uses a	      |
| model to account for the relatively stable net employment change generated by	      |
| business births and deaths. Due to the impact of COVID-19, the relationship	      |
| between business births and deaths is no longer stable. Typically, reports with     |
| zero employment are not included in estimation. For the August final and	      |
| September preliminary estimates, CES included a portion of these reports in the     |
| estimates and made modifications to the birth-death model. In addition for both     |
| months, the establishment survey included a portion of the reports that returned    |
| to reporting positive employment from reporting zero employment. For more	      |
| information, see www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm. 				      |
|										      |
| In the establishment survey, workers who are paid by their employer for all or      |
| any part of the pay period including the 12th of the month are counted as 	      |
| employed, even if they were not actually at their jobs. Workers who are	      |
| temporarily or permanently absent from their jobs and are not being paid are not    |
| counted as employed, even if they are continuing to receive benefits. The length    |
| of the reference period does vary across the respondents in the establishment	      |
| survey; one-third of businesses have a weekly pay period, slightly over 40	      |
| percent a bi-weekly, about 20 percent semi-monthly, and a small amount monthly.     |
|										      |
| For the September 2020 estimates of household employment and unemployment from      |
| the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program, BLS continued to implement   |
| level-shift outliers in the employment and/or unemployment inputs to the state      |
| models, based on statistical evaluation of movements in each area's inputs. Both    |
| the Current Population Survey inputs, which serve as the primary inputs to the      |
| LAUS models, and the nonfarm payroll employment and unemployment insurance claims   |
| covariates were examined for outliers. The resulting implementation of level	      |
| shifts preserved movements in the published estimates that the models otherwise     |
| would have discounted, without requiring changes to how the models create	      |
| estimates at other points in the time series.					      |
|										      |
| The "Frequently asked questions" document at 					      |
| www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-september-2020.htm 	      |
| extensively discusses the impact of a misclassification in the household survey     |
| on the national estimates for September 2020. Despite the considerable decline in   |
| its degree relative to prior months, this misclassification continued to be	      |
| widespread geographically, with BLS analysis indicating that most states again      |
| were affected to at least some extent. However, according to usual practice, the    |
| data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data	      |
| integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses. Hence, the   |
| household survey estimates of employed and unemployed people that serve as the      |
| primary inputs to the state models were affected to varying degrees by the	      |
| misclassification, which in turn affected the official LAUS estimates for 	      |
| September 2020. Similar misclassifications had occurred in the household survey     |
| from March through August (see www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-    |
| and-response-on-the-employment-situation-news-release.htm#summaries).		      |
|										      |
| Household data for substate areas are controlled to the employment and 	      |
| unemployment totals for their respective model-based areas. Hence, the 	      |
| preliminary September and revised August estimates for substate areas reflect	      |
| the use of level-shift outliers, where implemented, in the inputs for their	      |
| model-based control areas. The substate area estimates for both months also were    |
| impacted by misclassification in the household survey, in proportion to the	      |
| impacts of the misclassifications on the data for their model-based control areas.  |
|										      |
| Household data for Puerto Rico are not modeled, but rather are derived from a	      |
| monthly household survey similar to the Current Population Survey. The Puerto Rico  |
| Department of Labor has reported a misclassification in its household survey since  |
| May 2020 similar in nature to the misclassification in the Current Population	      |
| Survey, which has affected the local area data proportionally.		      |
|_____________________________________________________________________________________|

Technical Note
 
   Special technical note: This technical note describes the procedures regularly
used on a monthly basis to develop estimates from the CES survey and the LAUS
program. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, some of the procedures described in this
technical note have been modified. The modifications are briefly described in the
box note of this news release. More information on the changes to the CES business
birth-death model is available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm.
   
   This news release presents civilian labor force and unemployment data from the
Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program (tables 1 and 2) for 389
metropolitan statistical areas and metropolitan New England City and Town Areas
(NECTAs), plus 7 areas in Puerto Rico. Estimates for 38 metropolitan and NECTA
divisions also are presented. Nonfarm payroll employment estimates from the
Current Employment Statistics (CES) program (tables 3 and 4) are provided for
the same areas. State estimates were previously published in the news release
State Employment and Unemployment, and are republished in this news release for
ease of reference. The LAUS and CES programs are both federal-state cooperative
endeavors.

Civilian labor force and unemployment--from the LAUS program

   Definitions. The civilian labor force and unemployment data are based on the
same concepts and definitions as those used for the official national estimates
obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a sample survey of households
that is conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by the U.S. Census
Bureau. The LAUS program measures employed persons and unemployed persons on a
place-of-residence basis.  The universe for each is the civilian noninstitutional
population 16 years of age and older. Employed persons are those who did any work
at all for pay or profit in the reference week (typically the week including the
12th of the month) or worked 15 hours or more without pay in a family business or
farm, plus those not working who had a job from which they were temporarily absent,
whether or not paid, for such reasons as labor-management dispute, illness, or
vacation. Unemployed persons are those who were not employed during the reference
week (based on the definition above), had actively looked for a job sometime in the
4-week period ending with the reference week, and were currently available for work;
persons on layoff expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted as
unemployed. The civilian labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed persons.
The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor
force.

   Method of estimation. Estimates for states, the District of Columbia, the Los
Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale metropolitan division, and New York City are produced
using time-series models with real-time benchmarking to national CPS totals. Model-
based estimates are also produced for the following areas and their respective
balances: the Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL Metropolitan Division;
Cleveland-Elyria, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area; Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
Metropolitan Statistical Area; Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL Metropolitan Division;
and Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA Metropolitan Division. Modeling improves the
statistical basis of the estimation for these areas and provides important tools
for analysis, such as measures of errors and seasonally adjusted series. For all
other substate areas in this news release, estimates are prepared through indirect
estimation procedures using a building-block approach.  Estimates of employed
persons, which are based largely on “place of work” estimates from the CES program,
are adjusted to refer to place of residence as used in the CPS. Unemployment
estimates are aggregates of persons previously employed in industries covered by
state unemployment insurance (UI) laws and entrants to the labor force from the
CPS. The substate estimates of employment and unemployment, which geographically
exhaust the entire state, are adjusted proportionally to ensure that they add to
the independently estimated model-based area totals. A detailed description of the
estimation procedures is available from BLS upon request.

   Annual revisions. Civilian labor force and unemployment data shown for the prior
year reflect adjustments made at the beginning of each year, usually implemented with
the issuance of January estimates. The adjusted model-based estimates typically reflect
updated population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, any revisions in other input
data sources, and model re-estimation. All substate estimates then are re-estimated
using updated inputs and adjusted to add to the revised model-based totals.  In early
2015, a new generation of time-series models was implemented, resulting in the
replacement of data back to the series beginnings. At the same time, enhancements were
made to the substate estimation methodology, and more timely inputs from the American
Community Survey were incorporated.

Employment--from the CES program 

   Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive
pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Persons are
counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing
on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on the
basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2017 version of the North
American Industry Classification System.

   Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several
estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a "weighted link
relative" estimation technique in which a ratio of current-month weighted employment
to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of
establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current
month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous month's employment
estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the
sample size meets certain statistical criteria.

   For some employment series, the sample of establishments is very small or highly
variable. In these cases, a model-based approach is used in estimation. These models
use the direct sample estimates (described above), combined with forecasts of historical
(benchmarked) data to decrease volatility in estimation. Two different models
(Fay-Herriot Model and Small Domain Model) are used depending on the industry level
being estimated. For more detailed information about each model, refer to the BLS
Handbook of Methods.

   Annual revisions.  Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count
of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports that are submitted by
employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark
information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the
preceding one and also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month.
Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used
to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months.

   Seasonal adjustment. Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted for states,
metropolitan areas, and metropolitan divisions at the total nonfarm level. For states,
data are seasonally adjusted at the supersector level as well. Revisions to historical
data for the most recent 5 years are made once a year, coincident with annual benchmark
adjustments.

   Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted concurrently, using all available
estimates including those for the current month, to develop sample-based seasonal factors.
Concurrent sample-based factors are created every month for the current month's preliminary
estimate as well as the previous month's final estimate in order to incorporate real-time
estimates. 

Reliability of the estimates

   The estimates presented in this news release are based on sample surveys, administrative data,
and modeling and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors. Sampling error
is a measure of sampling variability—that is, variation that occurs by chance because a
sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to
nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and
processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys are subject to
additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used. The sums of
individual items may not always equal the totals shown in the same tables because of
rounding.

Use of error measures

   Civilian labor force and unemployment estimates. Measures of sampling error are not
available for metropolitan areas or metropolitan divisions. Model-based error measures for
states are available on the BLS website at www.bls.gov/laus/lastderr.htm. Measures of
nonsampling error are not available for the areas contained in this news release. Information
on recent data revisions for states and local areas is available online at
www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm.

   Employment estimates. Changes in metropolitan area nonfarm payroll employment are cited
in the analysis of this news release only if they have been determined to be statistically
significant at the 90-percent confidence level.  Measures of sampling error for the total
nonfarm employment series are available for metropolitan areas and metropolitan divisions
at www.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Measures of sampling error for more detailed series
at the area and division level are available upon request. Measures of sampling error for
states  at the supersector level and for the private service-providing, goods-producing,
total private and total nonfarm levels are available on the BLS website at 
www.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Information on recent benchmark revisions
is available online at www.bls.gov/web/laus/benchmark.pdf.

Area definitions

   The substate area data published in this news release reflect the delineations issued by the
U.S. Office of Management and Budget on April 10, 2018. Data reflect New England City and
Town Area (NECTA) definitions, rather than county-based definitions, in the six New England
States. A detailed list of the geographic definitions is available online at
www.bls.gov/lau/lausmsa.htm.

Additional information

   Estimates of unadjusted and seasonally adjusted civilian labor force and unemployment
data for states and seven substate areas are available in the news release State Employment
and Unemployment. Estimates of civilian labor force and unemployment for all states,
metropolitan areas, counties, cities with a population of 25,000 or more, and other areas
used in the administration of various federal economic assistance programs are available
on the Internet at www.bls.gov/lau/. Employment data from the CES program are available on
the BLS website at www.bls.gov/sae/.

   Information in this news release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals
upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Service: (800) 877-8339.