For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Thursday, August 29, 2024 USDL-24-1776
Technical information: (202) 691-5700 * ep-info@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/emp
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS -- 2023-2033
The U.S. economy is projected to add 6.7 million jobs from 2023 to 2033, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Total employment is projected to increase to 174.6
million and grow 0.4 percent annually, which is slower than the 1.3 percent annual growth
recorded over the 2013-23 decade.
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| Interpreting the Employment Projections |
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| The Employment Projections (EP) program estimates specific values for projected |
| employment levels and growth rates. However, this precision in the data does not |
| account for the inherent uncertainty of predicting long-term changes in the labor |
| market. Focusing on the direction and relative size of projected changes, rather |
| than on the precise value estimates, may yield similar insights into employment |
| trends and themes across occupations and industries. |
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Population and Labor Force
Projected employment growth is driven by labor force growth, which in turn is constrained by
population growth. The civilian noninstitutional population age 16 years and older is
projected to increase by 16.4 million to a level of 283.3 million in 2033, which is nearly 5
million less than the increase that occurred over the 2013-23 decade.
The civilian noninstitutional population is expected to grow 0.6 percent annually over the
2023-33 decade, slowing slightly from the 0.8 percent annual growth rate that occurred in the
decade from 2013 to 2023. Population growth rates have been slowing for several decades; the
projected 0.6 percent annual growth would, if realized, represent the slowest growth rate
since BLS began publishing this data.
Population growth is projected to be fastest in the older age groups, who are less likely to
participate in the labor force. As a result, the overall labor force participation rate is
projected to fall from 62.6 percent in 2023 to 61.2 percent in 2033. The labor force
participation rate for men is projected to continue a long-term decline through 2033. The rate
for women, which increased throughout the 1980s and 1990s, is expected to edge down in 2033,
about 3 percentage points below the peak rate that was reached in 1999.
Industry Employment
Healthcare and social assistance is projected to have the largest growth and be the fastest
growing industry sector (+1.0 percent annually). Employment growth in the health care and
social assistance sector is expected to be driven by both the aging population and a higher
prevalence of chronic conditions, such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes. Demand for
information technology products and services, such as computer systems design services, data
processing, and software, are expected to drive the demand for workers in the information
sector (+0.7 percent) and professional and business services sector (+0.7 percent).
Utilities growth (+0.6 percent annually) will stem from demand for electricity related to
electric vehicles and new data centers coupled with the shift towards renewable energy. Solar,
wind, geothermal, and other electric power generation are the fastest growing components but
are partially offset by the decline in fossil fuel electric power generation as older
facilities close.
Population growth directly affects many parts of the economy. Slower projected population
growth over the coming decade, particularly among the school-age population, is projected to
slow demand for private educational services and state and local government, which includes
public education.
Retail trade is the only sector projected to decline (-0.2 percent annually) as e-commerce
continues to have a negative effect on in-person sales at retail outlets, although increased
online purchases drive the growth in transportation and warehousing (+0.6 percent) as
companies ship goods directly to consumers.
Occupational Employment
Healthcare support occupations and healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are
projected to be among the fastest growing of all occupational groups, growing 15.2 percent
and 8.6 percent, respectively, from 2023 to 2033. The growing elderly population, which
typically has increased healthcare needs compared to younger groups, will in turn increase
demand for caregiving and therapy services. Several of the healthcare occupations with the
fastest projected employment growth--such as nurse practitioners and physician
assistants--can assist various healthcare providers with meeting this growing demand.
These occupations are key members of team-based healthcare systems and may reduce the cost
of delivery of a number of healthcare services.
Similarly, the projected fast growth for community and social service occupations (+8.1
percent) will stem from more individuals seeking assistance for a variety of challenges,
such as marriage and family counseling as well as substance abuse counseling and support.
Computer and mathematical occupations are projected to grow the second fastest of any
occupational group, at 12.9 percent. The growth of computer and mathematical occupations is
expected to stem from demand for upgraded computer services, continued development of
artificial intelligence (AI) solutions, and an increasing amount of data available for
analysis. In addition, the number and severity of cyberattacks and data breaches on U.S.
businesses is expected to lead to greater demand for information security analysts.
Technological advancements may also lead to increased productivity for some occupations.
The growth of e-commerce as well as advances in technology are expected to limit demand for
sales workers leading to employment declines. Similarly, automated systems and related
technology, including AI, are expected to contribute to declines in employment of office
and administrative support workers.
Construction and extraction occupations and installation, maintenance, and repair occupations
are projected to grow 5.6 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. These include two renewable
energy generation-related occupations--wind turbine service technicians and solar photovoltaic
installers--which are projected to be the fastest growing occupations over the 2023-33 decade.
The increased demand for electricity is related to growth in electric vehicles and new data
centers. Although these occupations are expected to be fast growing, the two occupations are
projected to add fewer than 20,000 jobs combined.
Occupational Skills
BLS has introduced a new data product beginning with the 2023–33 projections that provides
information about important skills by occupation. This data provides users with additional
information about skills and the ability to view skills data together with the occupational
projections.
More Information
--Detailed information on the 2023–33 labor force and macroeconomy projections and the
2023–33 industry and occupation projections will appear in separate Monthly Labor Review
articles, to be published later in 2024.
--The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) includes information about more than 500 detailed
occupations in over 300 occupational profiles, covering about 4 out of 5 jobs in the
economy. Each profile features the 2023–33 projections, along with assessments of the job
outlook, work activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more.
--The OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh. A mobile version of the OOH is available
for iOS (https://apps.apple.com/us/app/careerinfo/id1476300397) and Android
(https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=gov.dol.ooh_occupational_handbook&hl=en_US&gl=US)
devices.
--Field of degree pages are available online at www.bls.gov/ooh/field-of-degree/home.htm.
--Beginning with the 2023–33 projections cycle, BLS introduced a new set of tables providing
information on skills by occupation. A Monthly Labor Review article will be available later
in 2024 that describes the new tables, the methodology, and an analysis of the data.
--Descriptions of the classification systems and projections methods used can be found on the
Employment Projections Methodology Overview page at
https://www.bls.gov/emp/methods-overview.htm.
--Tables with detailed, comprehensive projections data are available online at
www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm.
--Definitions for terms used in this news release are available in the BLS Glossary at
www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm.
If you are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access
telecommunications relay services.
Technical Note
BLS publishes projections for the labor force, the macroeconomy, industry output and employment,
and occupational employment. More information is available online:
--Labor force: https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/labor-force.htm
--Aggregate economy: https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/aggregate-economy.htm
--Industry output and employment: https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/industry-out-and-emp.htm
--Occupational employment: https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/occupational-data.htm
The projections data provide a potential scenario for changes in the economy over a decade. The
projections focus on long-term structural trends of the economy and do not try to anticipate
future business cycle activity. To meet this objective, specific assumptions are made about the
labor force, macroeconomy, industry employment, and occupational employment. The projections are
not intended to be a forecast of what the future will be but instead are a description of what
would be expected to happen under these specific assumptions and circumstances. When these
assumptions are not realized, actual values will differ from projections.
Labor supply and demand assumptions
BLS projects the labor force (labor supply) as an input into the macroeconomic projections. BLS
also assumes that the economy will be at full employment in the projected year, with the labor
market at equilibrium. That is, employment in the projected year will be roughly equivalent to
the projected labor force minus a level of frictional unemployment (the relationship is not
exact because labor force is a count of people, while employment is a count of jobs, and
individual people can hold more than one job). BLS does not project an overall labor shortage
or surplus because in the BLS projections data framework, labor supply (the labor force) and
labor demand (employment) are linked – a projected increase in labor supply necessarily results
in an increase in employment.
Technological progress assumptions
As with many variables, BLS assumes that labor productivity and technological progress will be
in line with the historical experience. That is, productivity will increase and technology will
progress, but because the BLS method involves analyzing historical relationships in the data and
projecting them forward, the future is assumed to behave comparably to the past. In a future
state where technology advances much more rapidly than it has historically, it is unlikely that
historical relationships would hold, and therefore BLS projection methods are unlikely to yield
reasonable results.
Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have raised the prospect that the future
rate of technological progress could be higher than in the past. BLS projection methods could
reflect this in a faster rate of labor productivity growth. This would in turn result in a
higher level of GDP growth (maintaining the BLS full employment assumption). If this higher
rate of productivity growth is uniform across all industries, there is no impact on BLS
employment projections – output is higher, productivity is higher, and employment is the same.
However, a higher aggregate level of productivity growth could also be reflected differentially
in industry productivity. BLS methods could capture this, but BLS has no data on which to base
these differential productivity impacts. BLS therefore chooses to present a scenario with
technological progress in line with historical patterns, which allows the projections to be
grounded by historical data relationships rather than introducing adjustments that would be
highly speculative.
BLS does conduct research on factors that are expected to impact employment, particularly those
which may not be reflected in historical data, such as new technologies. However, BLS generally
applies adjustments based on this research conservatively, where there is convincing evidence
for a change. Developments in AI are proceeding rapidly, and the uncertainty about potential
impacts remains very high. Projections are always uncertain, and the exact impact of
developments such as new technologies on the labor market ten years out is impossible to predict
with precision. As a result, BLS releases new projections annually to incorporate new data,
research, and analysis.
The historical record does show that technology impacts occupations, but that these changes
tend to be gradual, not sudden. Occupations are complex combinations of tasks, and even when
technology advances rapidly, it can take time for employers and workers to figure out how to
incorporate new technology into business practices. New technologies may change the composition
or weighting of tasks performed by an occupation even if they do not impact overall demand for
an occupation. For more details on the historical record, see Michael J. Handel, "Growth trends
for selected occupations considered at risk from automation," Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics, July 2022.
For more information, visit the Employment Projections Methodology page online at
https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/emp/home.htm.
Frequently asked questions about the employment projections are online at
https://www.bls.gov/emp/frequently-asked-questions.htm.
Users and Uses
The BLS projections are used by high school and college students, their teachers and parents,
jobseekers, career counselors, and guidance specialists to determine jobs in demand. The
projections also are used by state workforce agencies to prepare state and area projections
that, together with the national projections, are widely used by policymakers to make decisions
about education and training, funding allocations, and program offerings. These projections of
jobs in demand help improve the alignment between education and training and the hiring needs
of employers. In addition, other federal agencies, researchers, and academics use the
projections to understand trends in the economy and labor market.
Projections of industry and occupational employment are prepared by each state, using input
from the BLS national projections. State projections data are available at Projections Central
https://www.projectionscentral.org.
United States Department of Labor
