For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Thursday, August 28, 2025 USDL-25-1324
Technical information: (202) 691-5700 * ep-info@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/emp
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS -- 2024-2034
The U.S. economy is projected to add 5.2 million jobs from 2024 to 2034, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Total employment is projected to increase to 175.2
million and grow 3.1 percent, which is slower than the 13.0-percent growth recorded over the
2014-24 decade.
Industry Employment
Healthcare and social assistance is projected to have the largest job growth and be the
fastest growing industry sector (+8.4 percent). Employment growth in this sector is expected
to be primarily driven by both the aging population and the growing prevalence of chronic
conditions, such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes.
Demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-based systems, data processing, software development,
research services, and associated consulting services are expected to drive the need for
workers in both the professional, scientific, and technical services sector (+7.5 percent) and
the information sector (+6.5 percent).
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction declines (-1.6 percent) are expected to be
driven in part by productivity gains through the adoption of emerging technologies, such as
robotics and drones, used in extraction. Though not the fastest decline, retail trade (-1.2
percent) is projected to lose the most jobs of any sector as automation, consolidation, and
e-commerce are likely to continue to have a negative employment effect on sales occupations at
retail outlets. However, the growing volume of online purchases is expected to support
employment growth in transportation and warehousing (+3.0 percent), primarily due to an
increasing volume of parcel shipments and deliveries.
Increased demand for electricity, primarily related to AI integration, electric vehicles
(EVs), and new data centers, is expected over the next decade. As a result, the four top
fastest growing industries are related to energy generation. Solar, wind, geothermal, and
other electric power generation, which includes tidal power, are projected to be the fastest
growing industries over the projections period. The four fastest growing industries combined
are projected to add 41,600 jobs. The projected fifth-fastest growing industry, other
electrical equipment and component manufacturing, includes battery production used for
storage and in EVs, is projected to add 48,400 jobs.
Among the ten fastest growing industries, the services for the elderly and persons with
disabilities industry (+21.0 percent) is projected to add 528,500 new jobs, the most of
any detailed industries. Demand for in-home care will contribute to this growth.
Occupational Employment
Just as fast growth is expected in the healthcare and social assistance sector, healthcare
support occupations and healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are projected to be
among the fastest growing occupational groups, growing 12.4 percent and 7.2 percent,
respectively, from 2024 to 2034. The growing elderly population, which typically has greater
healthcare needs compared to younger groups, will increase demand for long-term care and
therapy services. The healthcare occupations with the fastest projected employment growth--
such as nurse practitioners, physical therapist assistants, and physician assistants--assist
in meeting this growing demand for care. These occupations are key members of care teams,
delivering many healthcare services.
Similarly, the projected fast growth for community and social service occupations (+6.6
percent) will stem from more individuals seeking assistance for a variety of challenges, such
as marriage and family counseling as well as substance abuse counseling and support.
Technological advancements may also lead to improved productivity for some occupations. The
use of automated systems, including AI, is expected to contribute to declining employment of
office and administrative support workers. Similarly, the growth of e-commerce as well as the
integration of AI systems in sales activities, such as in routine calls, chats, and analysis
of sales, are expected to limit demand for many sales workers, leading to employment declines.
Advancements in automation will also continue to reduce demand for production occupations.
Computer and mathematical occupations are projected to grow the second fastest of any
occupational group (+10.1 percent), which is more than three times the average rate of growth
projected for the total economy (+3.1 percent). The fast growth of these occupations is
expected to stem in part from demand for continued development of AI solutions and an
increasing amount of data available for analysis. The growing demand to build AI models,
conduct data analysis, and integrate applications into business practices is expected to drive
employment of data scientists, the fourth fastest growing occupation in the economy. In
addition, the frequency and severity of cyberattacks and data breaches on U.S. businesses is
expected to lead to greater demand for information security analysts.
The projected fastest growing occupations over the 2024-34 decade are wind turbine service
technicians and solar photovoltaic installers. Although fast growing, the two occupations
combined will add fewer than 20,000 new jobs. The repair and maintenance of wind turbines is
expected to drive demand for wind turbine service technicians, while installation of new solar
panels will lead to the need for more solar photovoltaic installers.
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| |
| Interpreting the Employment Projections |
| |
| The Employment Projections (EP) program estimates specific values for projected employment |
| levels and growth rates. However, this precision in the data does not account for the |
| inherent uncertainty of predicting long-term changes in the labor market. Focusing on the |
| direction and relative size of projected changes, rather than on the precise value |
| estimates, may yield similar insights into employment trends and themes across occupations |
| and industries. |
| |
| The EP program also conducts research on factors that are expected to affect employment, |
| which may not be reflected in historical data, such as emerging technologies and new |
| legislation. Adjustments based on this research are generally applied conservatively such |
| as when there is convincing evidence for a long-term structural change. |
|_____________________________________________________________________________________________|
More Information
--Detailed information on the 2024–34 industry and occupational employment projections will
appear in a separate Monthly Labor Review article, to be published later in 2025.
--The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) includes information on about 600 detailed
occupations in over 300 occupational profiles, covering about 4 out of 5 jobs in the
economy. Each profile features the 2024–34 projections, along with assessments of the job
outlook, work activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more.
--The OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh.
--Field of degree pages are available online at www.bls.gov/ooh/field-of-degree/home.htm.
--Information about the importance of various skills by occupation can be found at
www.bls.gov/emp/data/skills-data.htm.
--Descriptions of the classification systems and projections methods used can be found on the
Employments Projections Methodology Overview page at www.bls.gov/emp/methods-overview.htm.
--Tables with detailed, comprehensive projections data are available online at
www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm.
--Definitions for terms used in this news release are available in the BLS Glossary at
www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm.
If you are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access
telecommunications relay services.
Technical Note
BLS publishes projections for the labor force, the macroeconomy, industry output and employment,
and occupational employment. More information is available online:
--Labor force: https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/labor-force.htm
--Aggregate economy: https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/aggregate-economy.htm
--Industry output and employment: https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/industry-out-and-emp.htm
--Occupational employment: https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/occupational-data.htm
The projections data provide a potential scenario for changes in the economy over a decade. The
projections focus on long-term structural trends of the economy and do not try to anticipate future
business cycle activity. To meet this objective, specific assumptions are made about the labor
force, macroeconomy, industry output and employment, and occupational employment. The projections
are not intended to be a forecast of what the future will be but instead are a description of what
would be expected to happen under these specific assumptions and circumstances. When these
assumptions are not realized, actual values will differ from projections.
Labor supply and demand assumptions
BLS projects the labor force (labor supply) as an input into the macroeconomic projections. BLS
also assumes that the economy will be at full employment in the projected year, with the labor
market at equilibrium. That is, employment in the projected year will be roughly equivalent to the
projected labor force minus a level of frictional unemployment (the relationship is not exact
because labor force is a count of people, while employment is a count of jobs, and individual
people can hold more than one job). BLS does not project an overall labor shortage or surplus
because in the BLS projections data framework, labor supply (the labor force) and labor demand
(employment) are linked – a projected increase in labor supply necessarily results in an increase
in employment.
Technological progress assumptions
As with many variables, BLS assumes that labor productivity and technological progress will be in
line with the historical experience. That is, productivity will increase and technology will progress,
but because the BLS method involves analyzing historical relationships in the data and projecting them
forward, the future is assumed to behave comparably to the past. (Previous sets of projections data
may be accessed via the Projections Archive: https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/projections-archive.htm.)
In a future state where technology advances much more rapidly than it has historically, it is unlikely
that historical relationships would hold, and therefore BLS projection methods are unlikely to yield
reasonable results.
Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have raised the prospect that the future rate of
technological progress could be higher than in the past. BLS projection methods could reflect this
in a faster rate of labor productivity growth. This would in turn result in a higher level of gross
domestic product (GDP) growth (maintaining the BLS full employment assumption). If this higher rate
of productivity growth is uniform across all industries, there is no impact on BLS employment
projections - output is higher, productivity is higher, and employment is the same. However, a higher
aggregate level of productivity growth could also be reflected differentially in industry productivity.
BLS methods could capture this, but BLS has no data on which to base these differential productivity
impacts. BLS therefore chooses to present a scenario with technological progress in line with historical
patterns, which allows the projections to be grounded by historical data relationships rather than
introducing adjustments that would be highly speculative.
BLS does conduct research on factors that are expected to impact employment, particularly those which
may not be reflected in historical data, such as new technologies. However, BLS generally applies
adjustments based on this research conservatively, where there is convincing evidence for a change.
Developments in AI are proceeding rapidly, and the uncertainty about potential impacts remains very
high. Projections are always uncertain, and the exact impact of developments such as new technologies
on the labor market ten years out is impossible to predict with precision. As a result, BLS releases
new projections annually to incorporate new data, research, and analysis. For more details on how BLS
assesses and incorporates AI's potential labor market impacts on its employment projections,
illustrated via case studies from the 2023–33 projections cycle, see Christine Machovec, Michael J.
Rieley, and Emily Rolen, "Incorporating AI impacts in BLS employment projections: occupational case
studies," Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2025.
The historical record does show that technology impacts occupations, but that these changes tend to be
gradual, not sudden. Occupations involve complex combinations of tasks, and even when technology
advances rapidly, it can take time for employers and workers to figure out how to incorporate new
technology into business practices. New technologies may change the composition or weighting of tasks
performed by an occupation even if they do not impact overall demand for an occupation. For more
details on the historical record, see Michael J. Handel, "Growth trends for selected occupations
considered at risk from automation," Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2022.
For more information, visit the Employment Projections Handbook of Methods page online at
https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/emp/home.htm.
Frequently asked questions about the employment projections are online at
https://www.bls.gov/emp/frequently-asked-questions.htm.
Users and Uses
The BLS projections are used by high school and college students, their teachers and parents,
jobseekers, career counselors, and guidance specialists to determine jobs in demand. The projections
also are used by state workforce agencies to prepare state and area projections that, together with
the national projections, are widely used by policymakers to make decisions about education and
training, funding allocations, and program offerings. These projections of jobs in demand help improve
the alignment between education and training and the hiring needs of employers. In addition, other
federal agencies, researchers, and academics use the projections to understand trends in the economy
and labor market.
Projections of industry and occupational employment are prepared by each state, using input from the
BLS national projections. State projections data are available at Projections Central
https://www.projectionscentral.org.
United States Department of Labor
