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Economic News Release
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BLS RELEASES NEW 1996-2006 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

Technical Information:  (202) 606-5700         USDL 97-429

Media Contact:          (202) 606-5902      For release: 10 A.M. EST
                                            Wednesday, December 3, 1997
Internet: http://www.bls.gov/emp/home.htm

BLS RELEASES NEW 1996-2006 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

Labor force

The supply of workers, the labor force, is projected to increase by 15 million over the 1996-2006 period, from 134 million to 149 million. This represents an increase of 11 percent, less than the 14 percent increase over the previous 10-year period, 1986-96. (See table 1.) The projections indicate that the demographic composition of the labor force is expected to change because the population itself will change and because work force participation will change.

  • The labor force age 45-64 will grow faster than the labor force of any other age group as the baby-boom generation (born 1946-64) continues to age. The labor force 25 to 34 years of age is projected to decline by almost 3 million, reflecting the decrease in births in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
  • The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are projected to increase, but at a more moderate rate than in the previous 10 years, particularly among younger women. Men’s labor force participation rates are projected to continue to decline for all age groups under 45 years of age. As a result, the women's labor force will grow more rapidly than the men’s, and the women’s share of the labor force will increase from 46 to 47 percent.
  • The Asian-and-other labor force and Hispanic labor force are projected to increase faster than other groups, 41 percent and 36 percent, respectively, because of high net immigration and higher than average fertility. The black labor force is expected to grow by 14 percent, faster than the 9 percent growth rate for the white labor force.
  • The Asian-and-other share of the labor force will increase from 4 to 5 percent and Hispanics from 10 to 12 percent. White non-Hispanics accounted for 75 percent of the labor force in 1996. Their share of the labor force in 2006 will decrease modestly to 73 percent.
  • By 2006, the black and the Hispanic labor forces will be nearly equal in size, as more Hispanics than blacks will enter the labor force over the 1996-2006 period.

Employment

Industry employment

  • Over the 1996-2006 period, total employment is projected to increase by 14 percent or 19 million, from 132 million in 1996 to 151 million in 2006. This growth rate is much slower than during the previous 10-year period 1986-1996 when growth was 19 percent and the economy gained 21 million additional jobs. (See table 2.)
  • Service-producing industries will account for virtually all of the job growth. Only construction will add jobs in the goods-producing sector, offsetting declines in manufacturing and mining.
  • Manufacturing's share of total jobs is expected to decline, as a decrease of 350,000 manufacturing jobs is projected. Manufacturing is expected to maintain its share of total output, as productivity in this sector is projected to increase. Accounting for 14 percent of employment in 1996, manufacturing is expected to account for just 12 percent in 2006.
  • Health services, business services, social services, and engineering, management, and related services are expected to account for almost one of every two wage and salary worker jobs added to the economy during the 1996-2006 period. Of the 10 fastest growing industries, nine belong to one of these four industry groups. (See table 4a.)

Occupational employment

  • Professional specialty occupations are projected to increase the fastest and to add the most jobs—4.8 million. This group also had the fastest rate of increase and the largest job growth in the 1986-96 period. Service workers are expected to add 3.9 million jobs. These two groups—on opposite ends of the educational attainment and earnings spectrum—are expected to provide 46 percent of total projected job growth over the 1996-2006 period. (See table 3.)
  • Other groups that are projected to grow faster than the average are executive, administrative, and managerial occupations; technicians and related support occupations; and marketing and sales occupations.
  • Administrative support occupations including clerical are projected to grow much slower than the average and slower than they have in the past, reflecting the increasing impact of office automation. The projected growth of 1.8 million jobs for this group is significantly less than the 3.1 million job growth over the 1986-96 period.
  • Precision production, craft, and repair occupations and operators, fabricators, and laborers are projected to grow much more slowly than the average due to continuing advances in technology, changes in production methods, and the overall decline in manufacturing employment.
  • The 10 fastest growing occupations include six health-related and four computer-related occupations. (See table 4b.)
  • The 10 occupations adding the most jobs will account for more than one-fifth of total employment growth. (See table 4c.)

Education and training

Employment will increase in occupations requiring various amounts of education and training. Growth rates over the 1996-2006 period will range from 7 percent for occupations generally requiring postsecondary vocational training to 25 percent for occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree. All categories that generally require an associate degree or more education are projected to grow faster than the 14 percent average of all occupations. In contrast, all other categories are expected to grow less than 14 percent. (See table 5.)

Notes

More detailed information on the 1996-2006 projections appears in five articles in the November 1997 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the forthcoming Winter 1997-98 Occupational Outlook Quarterly.

The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402. The Review costs $29 a year; single copies are $7.50. The Quarterly costs $9.50 a year; single copies are $4.50. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents.

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-606-7828, Telecommunications Device for the Deaf (TDD) phone: 202-606-5897, TDD Message Referral Phone Number: 1-800-326-2577.

Changes from past procedures used to develop projections