Technical Note
This news release presents civilian labor force and unemployment data for states and selected substate
areas from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program (tables 1 and 2). Also presented are
nonfarm payroll employment estimates by state and industry supersector from the Current Employment
Statistics (CES) program (tables 3 and 4). The LAUS and CES programs are both federal-state cooperative
endeavors.
Civilian labor force and unemployment—from the LAUS program
Definitions. The civilian labor force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and
definitions as those used for the official national estimates obtained from the Current Population Survey
(CPS), a sample survey of households that is conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by the
U.S. Census Bureau. The LAUS program measures employed people and unemployed people on a place of-residence
basis. The universe for each is the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older.
Employed people are those who did any work at all for pay or profit in the reference week (typically the
week including the 12th of the month) or worked 15 hours or more without pay in a family business or farm,
plus those not working who had a job from which they were temporarily absent, whether or not paid, for
such reasons as bad weather, labor-management dispute, illness, or vacation.
Unemployed people are those who were not employed during the reference week (based on the definition
above), had actively looked for a job sometime in the 4-week period ending with the reference week, and
were currently available for work; people on layoff expecting recall need not be looking for work to be
counted as unemployed. The civilian labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed people. The
unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force.
Method of estimation. Estimates for 48 states, the District of Columbia, the Los Angeles-Long Beach-
Glendale metropolitan division, New York City, and the balances of California and New York State are
produced using time-series models. This method, which underwent substantial enhancement at the beginning
of 2021, utilizes data from several sources, including the CPS, the CES, and state unemployment insurance
(UI) programs. Estimates for the state of California are derived by summing the estimates for the Los
Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale metropolitan division and the balance of California. Similarly, estimates
for New York State are derived by summing the estimates for New York City and the balance of New York
State. Estimates for five additional substate areas (the Cleveland, Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, and Seattle-
Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan areas and the Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg and Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall
metropolitan divisions) and their respective balances of state are produced using a similar model-based
approach. The small number of areas and divisions selected for LAUS time-series modeling reflect the
delineations per U.S. Office of Management and Budget Bulletin No. 23-01.
Each month, estimates for the nine census divisions first are modeled using inputs from the CPS only
and controlled to the national totals. State estimates then are controlled to their respective census
division totals. Substate and balance-of-state estimates for the five areas noted above also are controlled
to their respective state totals. This tiered process of controlling model-based estimates to the U.S.
totals is called real-time benchmarking. Estimates for Puerto Rico are derived from a monthly household
survey similar to the CPS. A more detailed description of the estimation procedures is available from BLS
upon request.
Annual revisions. Civilian labor force and unemployment data for prior years reflect adjustments made
after the end of each year. The adjusted estimates reflect updated population data from the U.S. Census
Bureau, any revisions in the other data sources, and model re-estimation. In most years, historical data
for the most recent five years are revised near the beginning of each calendar year, prior to the release
of January estimates. With the implementation of synthetic intercensal population controls in 2025 to
smooth decennial discontinuities, historical data were re-estimated back to the series beginnings in
1976, 1990, or 1994. For more information, see www.bls.gov/lau/geography-and-data-changes-in-2025.htm.
Seasonal adjustment. The LAUS models decompose the estimates of employed and unemployed people into
trend, seasonal, and irregular components. The benchmarked signals of employed and unemployed people first
are adjusted using an X-11 type of seasonal adjustment filter. The adjusted data then are smoothed using
a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) filter. The smoothed-seasonally adjusted estimates of employed
and unemployed people are summed to derive the civilian labor force, and the unemployment rate then is
calculated as the unemployed percent of the civilian labor force. The resulting smoothed-seasonally
adjusted unemployment rate estimates are analyzed in this news release and published on the BLS website.
During estimation for the current year, the smoothed-seasonally adjusted estimates for a given month
are created using an asymmetric filter that incorporates information from previous observations only.
For annual revisions, historical data are smoothed using a two-sided filter.
Employment—from the CES program
Definitions. Employment data refer to people on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part
of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. People are counted at their place of work
rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each
payroll. Industries are classified on the basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2022
version of the North American Industry Classification System.
Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation
procedures. Where possible, these data are produced using a "weighted link relative" estimation technique
in which a ratio of current month weighted employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment
is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for
the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous month’s employment
estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample size meets
certain statistical criteria. For some employment series, the estimates are produced with a model that
uses direct sample estimates (described above) combined with other regressors to compensate for smaller
sample sizes.
Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called
benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports that are submitted by employers who are covered under
state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates
between the new benchmark and the preceding one and to establish the level of employment for the new
benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is
used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months. Information on recent
benchmark revisions is available online at www.bls.gov/web/laus/benchmark.htm.
Seasonal adjustment. Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted at the statewide expanded
supersector level. In some cases, the seasonally adjusted payroll employment total is computed by
aggregating the independently adjusted supersector series. In other cases, the seasonally adjusted
payroll employment total is independently adjusted. Revisions to historical data for the most recent
five years are made once a year, coincident with annual benchmark adjustments.
Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted concurrently, using all available estimates, including
those for the current month, to develop sample-based seasonal factors. Concurrent sample-based factors
are created every month for the current month’s preliminary estimate as well as the previous month’s final
estimate.
Caution on aggregating state data. State estimation procedures are designed to produce accurate data
for each individual state. BLS independently develops a national employment series; state estimates are
not forced to sum to national totals. Each state series is subject to larger relative sampling and
nonsampling errors than the national series. Summing state estimates cumulates individual state-level
errors and can cause significant distortions at an aggregate level. Due to these statistical limitations,
BLS does not compile a "sum-of-states" employment series and cautions users that such a series is subject
to a relatively large and volatile error structure.
Reliability of the estimates
The estimates presented in this release are based on sample surveys, administrative data, and modeling
and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling
variability—that is, variation that occurs by chance because a sample rather than the entire population
is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced
into the data collection and processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys
are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used.
Use of error measures. Changes in state unemployment rates and state nonfarm payroll employment are
cited in the analysis of this release only if they have been determined to be statistically significant
at the 90-percent confidence level. Furthermore, state unemployment rates for the current month generally
are cited only if they have been determined to be significantly different from the U.S. rate at the
90-percent confidence level. The underlying model-based standard error measures for unemployment rates
and over-the-month and over-the-year changes in rates are available at www.bls.gov/lau/lastderr.htm. The
underlying standard error measures for over-the-month and over-the-year changes in state payroll employment
data at the total nonfarm and supersector levels are available at www.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm.
Measures of nonsampling error are not available.
Additional information
Estimates of civilian labor force and unemployment from the LAUS program, as well as nonfarm payroll
employment from the CES program, for metropolitan areas and metropolitan divisions are available in the
news release Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment. Estimates of civilian labor force, employed
people, unemployed people, and unemployment rates for approximately 7,600 subnational areas are available
online at www.bls.gov/lau/. Employment data from the CES program for states and metropolitan areas are
available online at www.bls.gov/sae/. If you are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability,
please dial 7-1-1 to access telecommunications relay services.
United States Department of Labor
